Who will be the "wise guy" horse 5/3???

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

By my count there are exactly zero horses in the field without a graded stakes win. You think everyone will go off at less than 40/1? That has to be close to impossible.

I'd love to get 40-1on DofC, but I'm thinking more around 25-1.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Gander

I cant see Smooth Air taking the kind of money needed to get him to 12/1.
Somebody had to run 2nd to Big Brown that day. Sure he can win, but I dont think a plodding 2nd in behind Big Brown is the kind of race that will make people run to the ATM machine over.

I see horses like Gayego and Z Fortune attracting more attention. Maybe even the slow Tale of Ekati. Those are 3 horses who I see more likely to land in the 12/1 - 15/1 range.

Yeah but those horses you can make the argument that they should be in the 12/1 to 15/1 range. In Smooth Air's case he really shouldn't be there. Yet my feeling is he will be which will mean he was the wise guy horse.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

By my count there are exactly zero horses in the field without a graded stakes win. You think everyone will go off at less than 40/1? That has to be close to impossible.

It is virtually impossible in a 20 horse field with 2 horses you know will be below 6/1.
I have a gut feeling there will be 1-2 forgotten horses with qualified figures, and one of them will win it and pay $100.

There is no way Denis will go off at 40/1 or higher.

The listeners of ATR will bet him down to 20/1 or less. That tearjerker story about Carroll taking his kid to the derby museum after the Illinois debacle will get the emotional gamblers to bet heavy so they can have that delusional hope they'll get to see the kid cry in the winners circle.

It's enough to make you wanna throw up.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think Smooth Air might take some money. Look at Tomcito. He was 3-1 in the Lexington off his plodding third to Big Brown.

Tomcito was 3/1 because he was running against billygoats on a surface that confuses the majority of bettors. Somebody had to be the favorite in that mule run. Did Tomcito finish the race in daylight or did they need to throw the lights on for him?

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by Gander

Tomcito was 3/1 because he was running against billygoats on a surface that confuses the majority of bettors. Somebody had to be the favorite in that mule run. Did Tomcito finish the race in daylight or did they need to throw the lights on for him?

It may not have been the best field, but there were surely better options to make the favorite than Tomcito.

[Dunbar]

The only horse for which TheGreek felt compelled to lower its odds significantly in the last week is Adriano. One week ago it was 35.5 to 1. Now Adriano is 20.5 to 1 at TheGreek. Every other horse is very close to the odds it was a week ago.

Odds on Big Brown have risen slightly from 3.05-1 to 3.25-1. Odds on Pyro and Col. John have dropped slightly.

--Dunbar

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Z Fortune. Everyone will watch that and see he ran a nice figure, looks to be improving, and is better suited for the 10f than Gayego with his style and the fact he had a wide trip at Arkansas.

I agree 100%. Z Fortune looks like a "wise guy" horse to me. He was visually respectable through the final three furlongs in Arkansas, and his sire had a couple of wins in big 10f races. People will like that.

For me, he is a toss. He just ran by a couple of unimpressive 30/1 shots (Tres Borrachos and Isabull) at Oaklawn, and that doesn't impress me much. Also, despite Siphon's wins in two 10f G1s, his distance pedigree is actually pretty poor on both sides. I don't see him moving forward with the extra distance, and the loss of War Pass sure didn't help him at all.

[Gander]

I dont agree that Z Fortune is any better suited to the longer distance than Gayego. He wasnt getting to Gayego and if this were true it would have been a heck of a lot closer at the end. That said, I still like Z Fortune's chances a bit but not because of the added distance.

[mclem10011]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Denis of Cork.

The trainer galloped...

I bowl, nice Norm Duke avatar!

[deltagulf]

i say it will be recaoturetheglory nobody talking about him.

like to see the connections get this one after risen star
came up short.

[2Hot4TV]

Gayego !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Getting better all the time.

[sumitas]

Place your bets and when nobody is looking throw some money on some long shots.