Eight Belles form

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What happened to her was awful and sad.

What probably will go ignored though is that she was one of the all-time greatest form reversals in horse racing history.

The very first race ever run over the synthetic Tapeta surface was the 100K Inaugural Stakes at Presque Isle Downs. The favorite was the 3-year-old filly Cantrel - who was a mind-boggling 40-to-50 point form reversal.



Obviously you noticed a trainer change and a long layoff before the insane spike in form. Cantrel, with her walking time bomb form, broke down in the race and had to be destroyed.

Unlike Cantrel, Eight Belles mind-boggling form reversal came without either a trainer change or a layoff.



Something happened in the four week span between December 23rd and Jan 21st that turned a very mediocre filly with 5 career starts into suddenly the best 3yo filly in an above average crop in almost an instant.

Her 15 length allowance win at FG was probably the single most puzzling race I've ever come across when doing analytical work on a card.

I was trying to build a case for King's Silver Son in the Rebal Stakes at Oaklawn. He was coming off of a win at FG in which he only recieved an 80 Beyer in his last start.

As I studied the FG races that day, I almost fell on the floor when I saw that an N2L race for fillies went 20 points faster than KSS did in a similarly paced route on the same card. All that popped into my head was 'did this filly I never head of have the greatest trip of all-time - or is she some lightly raced phenom cut out to be the next Inside Information - or is a horse I'm trying to make a case for in a Graded Stake really a routine 5K claimer?'

I compared her trip to KSS's - shockingly, if anyting, KSS's was a touch easier.

Now came the real exciting part - you get feeling like you do before opening up a gift as you get ready to pull up her form and watch her previous race.

But, it wasn't a race - it was five of them! This wasn't some nice debut winner who took care of 'biz in her debut and really put it all together in a big way next out. This was a filly with a very medicore form. When I watched her first five races, I discovered not only was her form mediocre - but so was her talent.

In case anyone didn't know - KSS, off his 80 Beyer, was 2nd in the Rebel next out. He wasn't quite a 5K claimer after all.

Eight Belles repeated her magical performance four more times before breaking both front ankles while galloping a quarter mile after the wire. An odd way to go for a filly with an odd form.

[ArlJim78]

I don't know if you look at the sheets, but it really stands out on there as well. from her debut to the 12/23 race she gradually went from a 14 to a 7.

then she reeled off 5 straight 1's or 0's if you include the derby.

usually you don't see this type of disjointed pattern. i'd love to know what happened, what change precipitated the improvement.

[ninetoone]

interesting stuff.

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I don't know if you look at the sheets, but it really stands out on there as well. from her debut to the 12/23 race she gradually went from a 14 to a 7.

then she reeled off 5 straight 1's or 0's if you include the derby.

usually you don't see this type of disjointed pattern. i'd love to know what happened, what change precipitated the improvement.

the light went on after the 2nd place finish and she understood what they wanted her to do. after that Eight Belles "wanted" to be a champion.

[horseofcourse]

I think part of it was her huge size and she took awhile to fill out and grow up. If I remember watching her early races...she never changed leads at all in the stretch...staying on her left lead. (I could be wrong about that but I'm pretty sure it was her.). Watching all her races in 2008, she changed to her right lead right on cue in the stretch. I don't know what happened November 30th, but if you throw out that race, she was also progressing upward steadily her two year old season. I don't think it's magic as it is well documented she was a 17 hand filly...quite large. And if you toss that 11/30 race she was progressing at 2 as well.

[packerbacker7964]

It looks good to me you just don't see it every day.

Sprint she ran a 53
2nd time out 1st time routing 67
3rd time out 2nd time routing 10 length win
4th time out 1st time Alw try 7th place
5th time out 2nd time Alw 2nd place
6th time out Alw no winners since Big Time Score
So almost every race she was getting better learning each time out what was going on around her. Some horses are made into Champion's other are born that way. Ether way she dies way to soon for anyones liking. She'll go down as one of the greatest Filly's to race in a long time.

[cmorioles]

DrugS,

Didn't you post this earlier? I would swear I've read this exact same thing before somewhere. Deja vu?

I actually gave her a 105 speed figure on turn around day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yeah - I probably did post something about it earlier.

A few people also commented to me about how radical the form reversal was when they first saw it - two of which who post here (IC and BTW)

At a time when you hear rumors about exotic pain killing drugs that they don't have tests for - like the stuff Biancone got caught possessing - it just makes you wonder a little when you see a horse improve 13 lengths on figures in the span of a month, hold the form, and than run until collapsing from ankle fractures in both front legs.

Maybe something was bothering her a little when she stunk - she was given something that cured what was bothering her - and it allowed her to run hard at an extremely high level. Not being able to feel the pain isn't always a good thing.

Perhaps I am just way to jaded for even having a thought like that. I don't know.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah - I probably did post something about it earlier.

A few people also commented to me about how radical the form reversal was when they first saw it - two of which who post here (IC and BTW)

At a time when you hear rumors about exotic pain killing drugs that they don't have tests for - like the stuff Biancone got caught possessing - it just makes you wonder a little when you see a horse improve 13 lengths on figures in the span of a month, hold the form, and than run until collapsing from ankle fractures in both front legs.

Maybe something was bothering her a little when she stunk - she was given something that cured what was bothering her - and it allowed her to run hard at an extremely high level. Not being able to feel the pain isn't always a good thing.

Perhaps I am just way to jaded for even having a thought like that. I don't know.

Even if it is a jaded way of thinking, it is also, in turn, a very realistic way of thinking.

Well the lazy thing to do is blame it on the surface. That way the problem will be fixed with a generic band-aid (synthetic) until the vets come up with a drug that's 10x more numbing than the ones used today.

[CSC]

Interesting stuff, however I don't think it is an isolated case. I wonder if someone can pull up Charismatic's form page. I remember his form improved after the Lexington after a cluster of mediocre races. Wonder what Lukas did there if anything to change this guy's form.

[Danzig]

i know lukas said he came to the realization he was training charismatic wrong-that when he changed his approach, the horse changed his ways. of course anyone who wishes to be a dwl detractor would say otherwise....

[horseofcourse]

Just looking through the Beyers she went on a 53, 67, 74, 78 progression through 12/23 as a 2 year old tossing the 11/30 race. She did not change leads in the stretch as a 2 year old even on 12/23. Would an 85-90 Beyer in her next start have been an ok progression or believable?? Granted 100 was a huge jump. I'm not sure if I would consider it a potential magic potion drug being given to her. Of course it's possible. I know the preferred method of running is changing to your right lead in the stretch and she did it perfectly all 5 of her starts in 2008 when she absolutely did not do that in 2007. I would attribute that development in her to at least a few Beyer points perhaps in her magic jump to 100 combined with just continued progression from her 2 yr old improvement pattern combined with maturity and growing a bit into her massive frame.

[10 pnt move up]

That form turn around is pretty stagering, might be more to her turn around other then better hay and oats, at least thats what I think when I see such a sudden turn around.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Interesting stuff, however I don't think it is an isolated case. I wonder if someone can pull up Charismatic's form page. I remember his form improved after the Lexington after a cluster of mediocre races. Wonder what Lukas did there if anything to change this guy's form.

Charismatic didn't have one gigantic leap like Eight Belles - but he had two very significant spikes in his form.



You notice the 9 point move up (above his prior top) after he was 2nd in the claiming race - but the scary leap was the 13 point move up (above his prior top) between April 3rd and April 18th.

In the Lexington, which was his 14th career start, Charismatic improved 8.5 lengths over his career best race on figures. He held that form though the entire triple crown series before breaking down after the wire in the Belmont.

I'm always a little suspicous when I see those huge unexpected and unexplainable spikes in form - though the vast majority of them come in situations like with Cantrel (off a layoff and for a new trainer) .. the type of form of a Charismatic and Eight Belles is extremely rare. Huge improvements on firmly established form, while going for the same trainer, without much rest between starts on move-up day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

She did not change leads in the stretch as a 2 year old even on 12/23.

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

[pmacdaddy]

I'm usually no conspiracy theorist and usually take breakdowns as an unfortunate part of the game.

I have to admit those PP's really bother me. Maybe there is a good reason they shouldn't, but they do.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

[freddymo]

[xx

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

Maybe she grew up, maybe what was hurting healed thru competent vetinary care, maybe she grew mentally. If Jones is a good trainer and honorable he got the filly to run better which is precisely his job. Speculating or inferring that the ONLY way to make a horse run faster is to cure her woes with drugs isn't too responsible.

DrugS you are industry guy now. Either stand behind Jones or indict him don't tease us with what might or could be. Make a stand! Right or wrong people will respect it as such.