Big Brown Beyer 109

[cmorioles]

But, should it be?

If you look at the figures awarded in the other route races, one earlier in the card and one immediately after the Derby, it is apparent the Derby used a different variant from those.

Race 4, raw figure 107, Beyer 93, variant 14
Race 10, raw figure 118, Beyer 109, variant 9
Race 11, raw figure 97, Beyer 83, variant 14

So, if he had used the same variant, the Beyer for the Derby would be 104. Given all the ground loss, it certainly seems reasonable. I wonder why he didn't.

[AeWingnut]

is 109 a good number for a Ky Derby?

I'm curious how much further BB ran than everyone else in the top 4.

Big Brown stayed far outside the whole trip while Tale of Ekati 4th looked to have the perfect trip. Imagine Calvin found the rail immediately on Denis of Cork 3rd and Eight Belles 2nd managed to stay out of trouble more or less 2-3 wide.

[slotdirt]

109 definitely seems a little high to me as well, though as always, cmorioles explains it as well as just about anybody could.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

109 definitely seems a little high to me as well, though as always, cmorioles explains it as well as just about anybody could.

Yes, thanks cmorioles, and a big Happy Birthday too!

[Better Than Honour]

the number needs to be high or you would basically be saying the rest of the field ran in the low 90's. he is a very talented horse that happens to be beating very slow horses for grade 1 caliber 3yr olds.

[Kasept]

1 - BIG BROWN 109 (Previous three Beyers: 106-106-90)
2 - Eight Belles 102 (Previous three Beyers: 99-91-96)
3 - Denis of Cork 97 (Previous three Beyers: 88-96-82)
4 - Tale of Ekati (93)
5 - Recapturetheglory (92)
6 - Colonel John (88)
7 - Anak Nakal (87)
8 - Pyro (87)
9 - Cowboy Cal (86)
10 - Z Fortune (80)
11 - Smooth Air (78)
12 - Visionaire (75)
13 - Court Vision (73)
14 - Z Humor (73)
15 - Cool Coal Man (62)
16 - Bob Black Jack (62)
17 - Gayego (55)
18 - Big Truck (37)
19 - Adriano
20 - Monba



Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures for last week's stakes races:

*Westchester (Bel): Divine Park (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 111
*Kentucky Derby (CD): Big Brown (R. Dutrow Jr./K. Desormeaux) - 109
*Churchill Downs (CD): Elite Squadron (J. Baker/J. Velazquez) - 105
*Turf Classic (CD): Einstein - Brz (H. Pitts/R. Albarado) - 103
*Nassau County (Bel): Zaftig (J. Jerkens/J. Chavez) - 101
*Alysheba (CD): Giant Gizmo (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 100

*Inglewood (Hol): El Roblar (R. Mandella/V. Espinoza) - 99
*Humana Distaff (CD): Intangaroo (G. Sherlock/A. Quinonez) - 99
*Bouwerie (Aqu): Northern Nettie (R. Baker/E. Coa) - 99
*Kentucky Oaks (CD): Proud Spell (J. Jones/G. Saez) - 99
*Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (CD): Bayou's Lassie (D. Romans/E. Prado) - 98
*Turf Sprint (CD): Mr. Nightlinger (W. Calhoun/H. Theriot II) - 98
*Sumter (Crc): Imawildandcrazyguy (W. Kaplan/M. Cruz) - 97
*Mamzelle (CD): Just for Keeps (M. Maker/G. Gomez) - 97
*Chris Thomas Turf Classic (Tam): Revved Up (C. Clement/D. Centeno) - 97
*George Royal (Hst): True Metropolitan (T. Jordan/M. Gutierrez) - 97
*La Troienne (CD): Game Face (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) - 96
*Queenston (WO): Not Bourbon (R. Attfield/J. Jones) - 96
*Dashing Beauty (Del): Cash's Girl (T. Ritchey/P. Morales) - 95
*Shot of Gold (Cby): Tytus (J. Ness/P. Nolan) - 95
*Jackie Wackie (Crc): Fearless Eagle (E. Plesa Jr./M. Aguilar) - 94
*Louisville (CD): Ginger Punch (R. Frankel/R. Bejarano) - 94
*Tony Gatto Dream Big (Atl): Hesa Big Star (H. Wolfendale/H. Karamanos) - 94
*James B. Tafel Illinois Owners (AP): Lord Carmen (F. Kirby/R. Zimmerman) - 94
*Panhandle (Mnr): Bettin On M J (J. Cartagena/G. Almodovar) - 93
*Prairie Rose (PrM): Sole of the City (R. Brueggemann/I. Karlsson) - 93
*Hawthorne (Hol): Tough Tiz's Sis (B. Baffert/A. Gryder) - 93
*Tellike (EvD): Classify (S. Asmussen/D. Meche) - 92
*Need for Speed (EvD): John Charles (S. Breaux/G. Melancon) - 92
*Route 66 (WRD): Sumfun (W. Calhoun/C. Kimes) - 92
*American Turf (CD): Tizdejavu (G. Fox/G. Gomez) - 92
*Seattle (EmD): Nationhood (M. Chambers/R. Frazier) - 91
*Hasta La Vista (TuP): Mighty Bodacious (D. Vannorsdel/R. Eikleberry) - 90

*Timeless Native (AP): Coragil Cat (G. Geier/D. Sanchez) - 87
*Philmont (Pha): Monsoor (A. Velazquez/A. Prado) - 87
*Prairie Express (PrM): Magnus One (R. Brueggemann/I. Ocampo) - 86
*Naked Greed (Crc): Successful Love (M. Azpurua/D. Coa) - 86
*Music Prince (Bel): Mohegan Sky (L. Rice/A. Garcia) - 85
*Kentucky (CD): Run Away and Hide (R. Werner/R. Albarado) - 85
*Double Delta (AP): Dreaming of Liz (W. Catalano/E. Fires) - 84
*Edgewood (CD): Zee Zee (W. Mott/K. Desormeaux) - 84
*ATBA Sales (TuP): Big Bug Creek (K. Lewis/S. Gann) - 83
*Babst/Palacios Memorial (Beu): Catlaunch (I. Vazquez/I. Gonzalez), Dooze (M. Maker/V. Lebron) (*DEAD-HEAT) - 83
*Hookedonthefeelin (Pim): Dicey D J (L. Rice/A. Napravnik) - 81
*Jack Cole (SrP): Cattleman Prospect (R. Gonzalez/A. Medellin) - 80

[Better Than Honour]

wow. that is a slow group or just very distance challenged.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

wow. that is a slow group or just very distance challenged.

Your first point was well taken.. that the winner/runner up figs needed to be aligned so that the rest of the front half of the field fell in line. This point is a bit off the mark in that the typically strewn apart Derby field is always going to have stragglers with exceedingly slow numbers. The chart, and in fact most everything about this Derby, ended up pretty 'normal'... from the winner's fig to the running time/splits, etc.. The crop may prove out average or slighly below average once we get to the fall.

There's obviously one colt at the head of the class, but let the turf horses make their move to the grass, the one turners get back to sprinting, and the late developers catch up, and it could still turn out that this bunch is just a solid, typical crop.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

wow. that is a slow group or just very distance challenged.

There is no 'or' there. They are slow and distance challenged. Big Brown ran the last two furlongs in 25.25 and Denis of Cork was the only one to make up any ground on him and even he was coming home in 24.97. Anak Nakal plodded up for 7th finishing in an atrocious 26.09. The 'closer' Colonel John finished in 27.17 and still managed to finish 6th.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Yes, thanks cmorioles, and a big Happy Birthday too!

Gracias.

[Kasept]

Weekend Beyer Speed Figures:

Westchester H. (Gr. III): Divine Park 111

Kentucky Derby (Gr. I): Big Brown 109
Churchill Downs S. (Gr. II): Elite Squadron 105
Woodford Reserve (Gr. I): Einstein 103
Nassau County (Gr. III): Zaftig 101
Alysheba (Gr. III): Giant Gizmo 100

Humana Distaff (Gr. I): Intangaroo 99
Kenucky Oaks (Gr. I): Proud Spell 99
Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. III): Bayou's Lassie 98
Aegon Turf (Gr. II): Mr. Nighlinger 98
La Troienne (Gr. III): Game Face 96
Louisville (Gr. II): Ginger Punch 94
Amer. Turf (Gr. III): Tizdejavu 92

Kentucky S. (Gr. II): Run Away and Hide 85

[philcski]

Hmmm... again, another massaged group of Beyer numbers from Friday's Oaks. No way the Giant Gizmo # should be higher than Proud Spell's, on raw time she was 2 lengths faster (unless Giant Gizmo could miraculously run a final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat), and one could argue the track was in even worse shape and slower by the Oaks than the Alysheba.

[HaloWishingwell]

Besides the numbers, without BB the filly dusts this field. Unless something miraculously happens this crop needs to hit the claing ranks ,poly,grass or make up some phony injury and retire fast before they embarrass themselves further.

[10 pnt move up]

So Big Brown had a nightmare trip of ground loss on both turns, close to a solid pace, yet improved 3 points over his Florida Derby effort? Don't buy it, he is a 104-106 type horse running against a really bad bunch.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

So Big Brown had a nightmare trip of ground loss on both turns, close to a solid pace, yet improved 3 points over his Florida Derby effort? Don't buy it, he is a 104-106 type horse running against a really bad bunch.

Ground loss is not relevant in BSF's...

You decided he's a "104-106 type horse' (whatever that is supposed to be) based on 2 dirt track starts? His 2nd and 3rd career starts overall? And he has that fixed ceiling? 104-106? That's not exactly how horses, especially in the spring of their 2 year old year, develop.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Ground loss is not relevant in BSF's...

You decided he's a "104-106 type horse' (whatever that is supposed to be) based on 2 dirt track starts? His 2nd and 3rd career starts overall? And he has that fixed ceiling? 104-106? That's not exactly how horses, especially in the spring of their 2 year old year, develop.

I know ground loss is not relevent but a horse loses that much ground it gets much harder to run a career top at 10 furlongs....at least that is my thinking. He should have got a 104, I give him a bit of a trip so I can see him around 106 for this type of race.

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I know ground loss is not relevent but a horse loses that much ground it gets much harder to run a career top at 10 furlongs....at least that is my thinking. He should have got a 104, I give him a bit of a trip so I can see him around 106 for this type of race.

He is beatable if a horse like Harlem Rocker shows up and improves of his last. Big Brown is not as good a horse as street sense if you ask me at this point.

Originally Posted by Kasept

^^^ I pretty much agree with that... If hooked with Kentucky Bear and Harlem Rocker, it will get mighty interesting.

Agree with both of you on the Harlem Rocker statement. He is a serious horse, maybe the only other one in this whole crop (Kentucky Bear I have an affinity for but he's not the talent of these two... I don't think he is, at least).

As stated above, this number was fabricated to fit better. His real performances, if taken in the context of how Beyer ORIGINALLY intended them to be created would have been 104, 113, 104 (and the turf race debut would have been MUCH, MUCH higher than the 90 it was assigned).

[HaloWishingwell]

it's not a point if he's as good as STREET SENSE but what in his crop is as good? He proved he doesn't need the lead or hooked to run his race. It's a matter if his feet can hold up two weeks after this race if that's not an issue then it a matter if his gate doesn't open up against this bunch.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hmmm... again, another massaged group of Beyer numbers from Friday's Oaks. No way the Giant Gizmo # should be higher than Proud Spell's, on raw time she was 2 lengths faster (unless Giant Gizmo could miraculously run a final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat), and one could argue the track was in even worse shape and slower by the Oaks than the Alysheba.

I was going to bring that up as well...Proud Spell should have gotten higher than a 99.