Eight Belles form

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Perhaps she didn't change leads in the stretch in any of her 2yo races because something was bothering her a little and it might not have felt good. She was a mediocre 2yo.

You say she changed leads right on cue in all of her 3yo races - perhaps because nothing was bothering her in those races and she was more apt to fully extend herself.

That is certainly a possibility. I don't know much about Jones and his reputation. I always thought it was ok. In the 21st century you pretty much have to question everything I guess. I hope that is not the case here. My only defense is that she was indeed making steady improvements through her 2 year old season tossing the 11/30 race. Mediocre compared to what?? I would say a 2 yr old filly running high 70s Beyers is up there on the scale...far from a grade 1 stakes 2 year old filly...but well up on the charts. AS far as the lead change thing...I would hope to think it's just a case of training or her figuring it out. I refer you to Lawyer Ron as a 2 year old who had a similar type problem often at age 2...not as regularly as Eight Belles but many races he didn't change. Then all of a sudden switched with regularity and his numbers spiked astronimically very late 2 yr old or early 3 yr old year. Much of this was attributed to him moving to dirt from running on grass and poly at 2.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Drugs...you're comparing apples and oranges. A no-talent filly who went from a terrible trainer to the biggest cheat in the game, to a highly talented filly (in the middle of her development curve) who stayed with the same guy. Not the right time or place to do this, either.

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

You know much more than me. I would ask you what would be a normal development curve?? 5 lengths?? 8 lengths?? 3 lengths?? What would have been the highest believable Beyer for her to get in that January Fairgrounds race??

[horseofcourse]

Another question is what says she was not talented at 2?? So if Aldebutante or Rampillion are running high 70s Beyers late this year we should consider them talentless?? I honestly don't see where those numbers suggest she had no talent.

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

Another question is what says she was not talented at 2?? So if Aldebutante or Rampillion are running high 70s Beyers late this year we should consider them talentless?? I honestly don't see where those numbers suggest she had no talent.

Jesustapdancingchrist.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Show me a race prior to her 15 length blowout victory in supersonic time, in a race she wasn't even favored in - that suggests she was a "highly talented filly"

I'm sorry - but improving 13+ lengths over a career top on an established form - with just four weeks rest - that is no "devolpment curve" - not even close.

I'm not saying it was illegal medication that led to one of the great form reversals of all-time .. I don't know what it was ... but it sure wasn't a development curve.

When is the right time and where is the right place? never and nowhere?

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.

In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Speculating or inferring that the ONLY way to make a horse run faster is to cure her woes with drugs isn't too responsible.

No kidding Freddy.

It wasn't that she devloped - it was how much she developed, how unexpected the development was, how incredibly rare her form is, and how she ended by collapsing with fractures in both ankles while galloping out well after the wire.

Originally Posted by freddymo

DrugS you are industry guy now. Either stand behind Jones or indict him don't tease us with what might or could be. Make a stand! Right or wrong people will respect it as such.

I'm hardly an industry guy.

There is no stand to make. Something happened in four weeks time that improved Eight Belles in a dramatic way. When you look at the way she went out - it makes the form reversal impossible to ignore.

That's all.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Jesustapdancingchrist.

No, I'm asking questions to someone who knows more than me. I'm simply trying to learn stuff. I find this thread fascinating. I'm trying to learn as much as I can.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time. I don't know the intracacies of her trips prior to the N2L win, or whether the Beyer figures are at all accurate for any of those races... what if the prior two races were adjusted down 5-6 points? Then we're talking a 7 length improvement (i.e., just over 1 second)- how is that unbelievable? Making my own figures for all these years, I've learned that figures, especially for young horses, don't tell the whole story.

In her tragic case... never and nowhere is probably right. I don't have an issue, ever, with retrospective analysis of form as it's a great learning experience, but I just don't get your comparison to this obvious Scott Lake special.

Yeah, that was my first thought. She won her maiden by 10. Did anyone do their own figures that day to determine whether she might have run in the high 80s and they split it out because the number was too hard to believe?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No kidding Freddy.

It wasn't that she devloped - it was how much she developed, how unexpected the development was, how incredibly rare her form is, and how she ended by collapsing with fractures in both ankles while galloping out well after the wire.



I'm hardly an industry guy.

There is no stand to make. Something happened in four weeks time that improved Eight Belles in a dramatic way. When you look at the way she went out - it makes the form reversal impossible to ignore.

That's all.

DrugS she got good fast the same way that pig Pryo got bad fast..lol

You are walking people down a dangerous spectulative road. Can you be right? of course...Do you know the situation well enough to do such speculating especially when you are smart enough to accurately twist some of the facts to make your case..NOPE and therefore I think its to dangerous to lead people in such a direction.

Basically you could ask Steve to get Jones on the air and ask him how 8 belles got so good so fast. Maybe we get an answer which helps enlighten the subject vs. darkening a bad day with more crap

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

When would be then? After it's forgotten about? Very legit question brought out by Doug and presented in a way that all can understand. And why exactly is comparing Lake and Jones apples and oranges? You think Jones is Preston Burch?

As noted above... I have no issue with questioning "where did that race come from" as it's highly relevant and debatable, however I don't agree with who he compared TO, a 50 point jump up from a maiden claiming ranks race when switched to a confirmed cheat. To call it one of the "greatest form reversals ever" is competely inaccurate.

Additionally, Beyer figures have become so massaged on a daily basis it's IMPOSSIBLE to say conclusively whether one number is truly accurate and repeatable. As CJ noted, even the Derby Beyer this year is questionable at best.

[philcski]

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

The Bris figures (increasingly becoming more useful than Beyers, and what I use when I don't have my own numbers) had Eight Belles running an 83, 86, 77 (not perservered), 91, and 99 (in the N2L) in the races in question. Not quite the startling form reversal that the Beyers would indicate.

[cmorioles]

I'd rather use a blindfold and an abacus than resort to BRIS numbers. To be fair though, I couldn't use Beyer numbers blindly either.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

The Bris figures (increasingly becoming more useful than Beyers, and what I use when I don't have my own numbers) had Eight Belles running an 83, 86, 77 (not perservered), 91, and 99 (in the N2L) in the races in question. Not quite the startling form reversal that the Beyers would indicate.

And Recapturetheglory tossed ET in the tunnel going to the track, he ran his ass off

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I'd rather use a blindfold and an abacus than resort to BRIS numbers. To be fair though, I couldn't use Beyer numbers blindly either.

Would you use ANY number blindly for real money? Of course not.

Originally Posted by Scav

And Recapturetheglory tossed ET in the tunnel going to the track, he ran his ass off

He ran big, I was very surprised.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Two additional points on this...

Recapturetheglory ran 22 points faster than his prior effort and 16 points better than his previous dirt top in the Illinois Derby. Why no question of this?

The Bris figures (increasingly becoming more useful than Beyers, and what I use when I don't have my own numbers) had Eight Belles running an 83, 86, 77 (not perservered), 91, and 99 (in the N2L) in the races in question. Not quite the startling form reversal that the Beyers would indicate.

Of course on the bris figures the three starts for Recapturetheglory on the dirt were 95, 99, 104 which hardly seems like an unrealistic progression.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Of course on the bris figures the three starts for Recapturetheglory on the dirt were 95, 99, 104 which hardly seems like an unrealistic progression.

Exactly correct.

[the_fat_man]

When I saw this thread yesterday, I took a look all of EB's races, from 11/30 on.
Here's what I found:

1) 11/30 wide both turns, widest backstretch, no cover, mild move 2nd turn, then backed up --- HARD TO TELL what lead she was on in the stretch, as she was not in the picture from just after they entered the stretch to just before the wire --- only way to tell is with the headon, which, as best as I can determine, is NOT available

2) 12/23 --- similarly wide both turns and backstretch (no cover) but made significant move to take the lead entering and was run down by a last mover (who came OUTSIDE of her). significant improvement AND didn't change leads, with VERY UGLY action That she ran 2nd with a similarly wide trip without changing leads, and being last moved, is a HUGE, but obvious, improvement.

3) 1/21 ----- INSIDE TRIP, changed leads, easily. She was still running green in the stretch, however. Improving horse, better trip, lead change results in a WIPEOUT effort.

While the improvement was a huge one, it certainly was evident that the filly was improving. And anyone on top of it got a whopping 5:2. Mucho work, for those that tracked her, for little reward. Then again, we can debate the reason for her improvement, which is much more important than scoring.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

You've been watching this game at an expert level for a long time... you've never seen a 2yo/3yo explode 10 lengths faster? Happens all the time.

Yes - often with a trainer change and a layoff - and not always repeted in subsquent races. which is why I used Cantrel as an example. The layoff - trainer change combo didn't happen in Eight Belles case.

Anyone who doesn't think she made a monster improvment in the race she won by 15 lengths, while not favored in the betting, with a conservative 100 Beyer .. I just don't know.

I'm not saying every horse who makes a mind-boggling form reversal, and proceeds to repeat the race over and over, ends up breaking down on the track. They don't. The vast majority of them disappear though.

Alina, who was 2nd to Eight Belles in the Fantasy, is an example of a dramatic form reversal by a horse at a top level who hasn't yet tailed off. She fits the traditional mode of trainer change plus layoff .. Eight Belles doesn't.

Bruce L Jackson trained In Excess, who was one of the better horses I've ever seen in my life - before anyone accuses him of being "a bum" like they did with Pino, who consistantly wins at about a 20% clip.