8/8: Saratoga ($39k C/O)

Kasept · #1 08-08-2008, 07:11 AM

Ridiculous day at Spa Thursday with terrible effort on first half of card and aborted grass fiasco on 2nd half. Four of last 5 were carded on the lawn and hail storm yanked them off the turf to decimate the fields and create chaos. Personally had 'left the building' long before then to broadcast ATR from home studio, but felt like I had done less than zero to help anyone with yesterday's card. Those that submitted P6 tix before the decision had to feel cheated as nearly all would have singled I Lost My Choo in the feature and her replacement failed to score. It hardly mattered though as several other prices, including a $30+ David Carroll debuter in the dep 5th, seemed to point to a carryover anyway.

Friday races marginal improvement over the past couple of days and in advance of Saturday's state-bred stakefest which ended up absent of the Yaddo.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

Post-Scratches...

1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Ambling Rose 3-1
Next Best: #4 Mutakaway 5-2
Best Value: #8 Sweetest Kiss 5-1
Super Add: #7 Most Charming 7-2

2nd: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, OFF THE TURF-7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #7 Mega 4-1
Next Best: #3 Misty Daylight 3-1
Best Value: #6 SCR
Super Add: #5 Dove Nest 10-1

3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Ravel 5-2
Next Best: #4 Temporary Saint 9-5
Exotics Use: #5 Fearless Vision 2-1

4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Earle's First Girl 2-1
Next Best: #6 Trillian 5-2
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Hope Street 7-2

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, OFF THE TURF-7f (P6, P3, DD)

Some way to start the P6.. AND NOW OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #9 Silver Reunion 6-1
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #4 Jehan 3-1
Exotics Use: #12 SCR

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-7-8
3: 1-4-5
4: 2
5: ALL

4x3x1x6 = $72

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Bitabaz 3-1
Best Value: #4 Mr. Petersson 4-1
Next Best: #6 Shifty Guy 9-2
Exotics Use: #2 Early Response 10-1

7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Smokin Hero 8-5
Next Best: #8 Paramedic 4-1
Best Value: #9 Stay Alittle While 15-1
Super Add:: #3 Gargantua 12-1

8th: 5th Waya, F&M-4+, 12f-IT (P3, DD)

NOTE: #3 Goat Cheese 15-1 has shot to invade tri, exacta at bonus tote...

Most Likely: #6 Tejida 6-5
Best Value: #4 Leap in the Sun 6-1
Next Best: #1 Caprice 5-2

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Winning Point 8-5
Next Best: #1 SCR
Best Value: #3 Are We Dreamin 8-1

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (Super)

Terrific state bred ALW as nightcap.. Lots of appealing prices..

Most Likely: #6 Sammy's Toy 8-1
Best Value: #4 Criminal Power 12-1
Next Best: #12 Wishful Tomcat 5-2
Super Add: #7 Piazza Di Spagna 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7-8-9
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 4
10: 4-6-7-8-9-12

3x4x1x6 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

blackthroatedwind · #2 08-08-2008, 08:42 AM

2nd and 5th are off the turf.

philcski · #3 08-08-2008, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

2nd and 5th are off the turf.

If they take the Waya off the turf later, any idea what distance they will run on the main? The full mile and a half?

blackthroatedwind · #4 08-08-2008, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

If they take the Waya off the turf later, any idea what distance they will run on the main? The full mile and a half?

Not really....but does it matter?

philcski · #5 08-08-2008, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not really....but does it matter?

yes... trying to work out my Showdown pick for the day, and I think Tejida is the right play, but if it gets washed off mid-day I'll get stuck with the post time favorite, which I'm guessing would end up being So Glitzy and I'd be fine with that at a mile and an eighth, but you know how these events go when it's a bunch of grass horses go a mile and a half on the dirt- absolute chaos, and I don't want to leave anything to chance this far into the game... make sense?

blackthroatedwind · #6 08-08-2008, 09:18 AM

Earle's First Girl in the 4th?

zippyneedsawin · #7 08-08-2008, 09:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

yes... trying to work out my Showdown pick for the day, and I think Tejida is the right play, but if it gets washed off mid-day I'll get stuck with the post time favorite, which I'm guessing would end up being So Glitzy and I'd be fine with that at a mile and an eighth, but you know how these events go when it's a bunch of grass horses go a mile and a half on the dirt- absolute chaos, and I don't want to leave anything to chance this far into the game... make sense?

Phil,

I'm avoiding the 8th race for that very reason. I didn't like sweating out Thursday's feature (along with nearly all of the competitors remaining) when I Lost my Choo scratched. No way am I doing that again.

philcski · #8 08-08-2008, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Earle's First Girl in the 4th?

That'd be my backup if there was concern coming off the grass... although it seems like the rest of the field is pretty bunched in ability and any of the others are eligible to get by her if she has a bit of an off day... not any automatic tosses.

anybody who thinks this game is easy, to pick a horse just to show every day, is fooling themselves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

Phil,

I'm avoiding the 8th race for that very reason. I didn't like sweating out Thursday's feature (along with nearly all of the competitors remaining) when I Lost my Choo scratched. No way am I doing that again.

You're thinking the same way as me. I was thinking if the favorite ended up running off the board they may have cancelled the day and called everyone a winner.

Gate Dancer · #9 08-08-2008, 09:41 AM

"8th: 5th Waya, F&M-4+, 12f-IT (P3, DD)

NOTE: #3 Goat Cheese 15-1 has shot to invade tri, exacta at bonus tote...

Most Likely: #6 Tejida 6-5
Best Value: #4 Leap in the Sun 6-1
Next Best: #1 Caprice 5-2"

Totally agree with Mr. Byk on Goat Cheese, this lady will be in my exotics and certainly believe can take the top spot (must stay on turf). Insane distance breeding on the female side of the pedigree. I realize there are plenty of 'dosage' doubters but the index for the dam (Capracotta) is 3-2-7-10-8 and for the sire of the dam (Shernazar) is 2-0-9-17-18. I believe the longer they go the better for Goat Cheese.

Alan07 · #10 08-08-2008, 09:49 AM

2nd & 5th at 7 Furlongs

Kasept · #11 08-08-2008, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

2nd and 5th are off the turf.

Thx Andy..

Tim Ritvo just stopped here and he's trying to decide on Battle of Britain. Says 2 horses have already scratched out of 2nd...

philcski · #12 08-08-2008, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan07

2nd & 5th at 7 Furlongs

5th will be at a mile and an eighth per NYRA.

Alan07 · #13 08-08-2008, 10:26 AM

I thought it said 2yo's would go 7 furlongs?

philcski · #14 08-08-2008, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan07

I thought it said 2yo's would go 7 furlongs?

That was my understanding too... NYRA website could be wrong.

VOL JACK · #15 08-08-2008, 10:54 AM

Im fairly confident today is 8-8, not 8-7 Steve.
Sorry, to be a D-bag just some might think your picks for today aren't up.

Kasept · #16 08-08-2008, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Im fairly confident today is 8-8, not 8-7 Steve.
Sorry, to be a D-bag just some might think your picks for today aren't up.

V-J,

Thx!

Changes made as well post-SCR's..

G/L today all!

mclem0822 · #17 08-08-2008, 02:03 PM

It looks like it's raining buckets there, anyone know if they are in danger of canceling the rest of the card? Nature is a mutha sometimes!

DJARUM · #18 08-08-2008, 02:04 PM

8th and 10th Off the Turf

IrishofNDMan · #19 08-08-2008, 02:24 PM

estreetposse · #20 08-08-2008, 02:24 PM

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?r...01111&loop=yes

NYS Radar as of 2:20 pm

Yellow Warning area=The Spa