9/10: Belmont ($63k C/O)

Kasept · #1 09-10-2008, 09:01 AM

Beautiful Wednesday morning upstate and downstate, and seems like Carryover card at Belmont will come off without track condition issues. Don't know if that will help much though, as sequence is mind-numbingly tough. I'll take a shot, but will not spend a lot of money trying to hit the six...

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Some way to kick off sextet.. Inscrutable bunch of bad state-bred maidens..

Most Likely: #2 Rock Key 4-1: Can sit inside stalking trip.. 6th
Best Value: #3 Valid Threat 12-1: Has some tactical speed.. WON ($13.60)
Next Best: #5 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Western Call 7-2: Prudent include; Seems to try.. 4th

5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Moved from Widener Turf to Inner Turf.. Same distance..

Best Value: #2 Tobruk 9-2: Hernandez races into shape; Expect better today.. 9th
Most Likely: #3 Cardinal Hill 3-1: Could end up controling the pace.. 3rd
Next Best: #1 Kettle Two 6-1: Note big effort two back; Saves ground.. WON ($19.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Dubliner 8-1: Always useful on exotic tix; Back on lawn today.. 6th

$1 Double Paid $66.00

6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Impossible race..

Most Likely: #10 Bulstar 7-2: Toner gelding blew break in bow, rallied to be 3rd.. 9th
Best Value: #7 Grantor 15-1: Turnbacker from Hushion/Hill intriguing.. 11th
Next Best: #11 Dr. Decter 5-2: Pricey '06 buy had troubled debut; Note 8-1 price that day.. WON $5.60
Exotics Use: #9 Above All Odds 12-1: Last best v. good group; Chief adds Lasix (21%).. 10th

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Here's a terrific, fascinating feature with tons of intrigue including entries from Clement, Frankel and McLaughlin..

Most Likely: #7 Rallying Cry 3-1: Godolphin underachiever gets slight class break.. 2nd
Best Value: #3x (POE) Museeb 12-1: KMc Shadwell dangerous as draw in.. 7th
Next Best: #6 Out of Gwedda 8-1: Note SAR try v. Visionaire two back.. 5th
Exotics Use: #2b (POE) Joe Bravo 7-2: Frankel mystery horse won Brazilian TC leg.. 9th

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Valiant Humor 5-2 6th
Best Value: #4 Bobcat Brody 15-1 8th
Next Best: #10 At Attention 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Estimator 8-1 2nd

9th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Another super tough matchup with a few amazingly bred gals including daughters of Versailles Treaty and Lakeway and sibs of A.P. Arrow/Geri (Venatrix) and Sabellina (Eleni's Hope), as well as Freedom Rings, (from mare that produced Ham Sandwich, On Rye, With Mustard & To Go).. And note MTO's include sibs of Alumni Hall (State Treasure) and Pyro (War Echo)..

Most Likely: #15 State Treasure 4-1
Next Best: #10 Siren Serenade 10-1
Best Value: #14 War Echo 10-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Gozzip Girl 15-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-3
5: 1-2-3
6: 1-7-9-10-11
7: 7
8: 7
9: 10-14-15

2x3x5x1x1x3 = 90 x $2 = $180

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-7-9-10-11
7: 2-3-6-7
8: 7
9: 10-14-15

6x4x1x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Kasept · #2 09-10-2008, 11:18 AM

Main: FAST
Turf: YIELDING

SCRATCHES

1: 2

2: 1-4-7

3: 4

4: 1-5-9-11

5: 5-9-11-13 (AE-12 Sammy's WILL RUN)

NOTE: MOVED FROM WIDENER TURF TO INNER TURF.. Still 8.5f

6: 1A-2B-12-13-14

7: 9-10

8: 2-5-9

9: 3-6-7-8-9-11

NOTE: OFF THE TURF -- STILL 1 mile

Kasept · #3 09-10-2008, 03:39 PM

Have 5 in the P6 and 6 in the P4 and STILL don't feel remotely good about this race...

rkinnin · #4 09-10-2008, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-7-9-10-11
7: 2-3-6-7
8: 7
9: 10-14-15

6x4x1x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

actually....according to my figures that is not a $72 bet even at $1. If you made Leg 1 a four horse pick it would be $72 [with $2] but not 6 picks.

If I am wrong...I will go up to Grey Avenue and enroll myself in a math class with "the witches". If you are wrong, you owe me a Carolina BBQ lunch next year at the spaaaaa.

Scav · #5 09-10-2008, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkinnin

actually....according to my figures that is not a $72 bet even at $1. If you made Leg 1 a four horse pick it would be $72 [with $2] but not 6 picks.

If I am wrong...I will go up to Grey Avenue and enroll myself in a math class with "the witches". If you are wrong, you owe me a Carolina BBQ lunch next year at the spaaaaa.

It is on a $1 play.

6x4 = 24 x 3 = $72

ateamstupid · #6 09-10-2008, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkinnin

actually....according to my figures that is not a $72 bet even at $1. If you made Leg 1 a four horse pick it would be $72 [with $2] but not 6 picks.

If I am wrong...I will go up to Grey Avenue and enroll myself in a math class with "the witches". If you are wrong, you owe me a Carolina BBQ lunch next year at the spaaaaa.

Start enrolling. 6 x 4 x 1 x 3 = 72. Steve will probably still give you that lunch though.

Kasept · #7 09-10-2008, 03:48 PM

Hell.. Needn't have worried or used any other horses if Maragh was going to make it so easy for Coa..

Not sure why this race looked so screwy to me....

(Of course I wasn't so confused that I couldn't multiply 6x4x1x3 to get 72...

)

rkinnin · #8 09-10-2008, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkinnin

actually....according to my figures that is not a $72 bet even at $1. If you made Leg 1 a four horse pick it would be $72 [with $2] but not 6 picks.

If I am wrong...I will go up to Grey Avenue and enroll myself in a math class with "the witches". If you are wrong, you owe me a Carolina BBQ lunch next year at the spaaaaa.

that will teach me to check and recheck and recheck my math work.

Sorry to doubt the great one on this.

Either way, I am good with #11 in the first leg. :-)

rkinnin · #9 09-10-2008, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Here's a terrific, fascinating feature with tons of intrigue including entries from Clement, Frankel and McLaughlin..

Exotics Use: #2b (POE) Joe Bravo 7-2: Frankel mystery horse won Brazilian TC leg..

I heard you mention this one on the show yesterday....it reminds me of a pacer in the Meadowlands named after one of the "callers" Ken Warkington [sic].

rkinnin · #10 09-13-2008, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rkinnin

I heard you mention this one on the show yesterday....it reminds me of a pacer in the Meadowlands named after one of the "callers" Ken Warkington [sic].

I saw another one yesterday....

Tribute to Tom D.

run in Arlington, I believe.

Could that be Tom Durkin ??

#11 09-13-2008, 03:19 PM

Interesting Maiden Special Weight for 2 year olds at Monmouth

Race 6

Taking Stamp. Should enjoy the added distance. 5/1 a square price.

rkinnin · #12 09-13-2008, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Interesting Maiden Special Weight for 2 year olds at Monmouth

Race 6

Taking Stamp. Should enjoy the added distance. 5/1 a square price.

I agree....but the best you and I got was 4th. What is amazing is that stamp stayed at 5/1 the whole time. For an Assumussen horse thats decent.

Wasn't Benzel a former assistant to Pletcher? He seems to have quite a stable for himself already. Who is Pletcher's top assistant now that Benzel is on his own?