Best current Derby future odds

[Dunbar]

TheGreek has odds up today for the first time since before Pool 3. Here's what they have now. The first number is the odds at TheGreek; the 2nd number is the horse's closing odds in Pool 3

Charitable Man* 40.5, 45.7
Chocolate Candy 28.5, 18.9
Desert Party 22.5, 16.1
Dunkirk 7.25, 11.5

Friesan Fire 12.15, 8.4
Giant Oak 52.5, 53.7
Hold Me Back* 25.5, 24.0
I Want Revenge 4.25, 4.8

Mafaaz* 40.5, 73.7
Musket Man* 25.5, 25.6

Old Fashioned 15.25, 12.5
Papa Clem 52.5, 47.1
Pioneerof the Nile 10.15, 9.6
Quality Road 8.45, 6.1
Regal Ransom* 32.5, 42.4

Terrain* 38.5, 47.4


Win Willy* 20.5, 16.5
Mutuel Field("All Others") 4.25, 17.4**

**TheGreek's "All Others" includes Theregoesjojo, Flying Private, Imperial Council, and Take the Points.

What's striking is the difference in the "All Others" odds. Some of that difference can be attributed to Theregoesjojo being included in TheGreek's "All Others". It was only after Pool 3 closed that it was announced that Theregoesjojo would run in the BlueGrass, greatly increasing the chance he'll make it to the starting gate for the Derby. Theregoesjojo is offered at 40-1 at Bodog and 30-1 at WSEX, but even if you say jojo has a 15-1 chance to win the Derby and subtract that from TheGreek's "All Others", it would only move TheGreek's "All Others" odds to 6.8-1. Still way below Pool 3's 17.4-1. The lower odds on "All Others" is somehow made up with higher odds elsewhere--the vig/takeout for TheGreek's odds line is 15%.

Also, it looks like Quality Road's quarter crack has been factored into TheGreek's odds. Otherwise they wouldn't be offering 8.45-1, while offering just 4.25-1 on IWR and 7.25-1 on Dunkirk.

In the absence of Pinnacle, TheGreek has emerged as the leading site for horse futures. World Sports Exchange has better odds on just 2 of those horses: Dunkirk at 8-1 and IWR at 9-2. Bodog also has the best odds on just 2 horses: Desert Party at 25-1 and Hold Me Back at 30-1.

Using the best odds at TheGreek, Bodog, and WSEX (including the 4.25-1 for "All Others" at TheGreek), you get a line with 12.7% effective takeout. If Pinnacle had a line up, the overall effective takeout would probably be below 10% by now.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Going into today's races, futures have shifted a bit. Here's the best I can find: (unless otherwise noted, these are the odds at TheGreek.)

Charitable Man* 40.5
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Dunkirk 8 (WSEX)
Friesan Fire 9.25
Giant Oak 52.5
Hold Me Back* 30 (Bodog)
I Want Revenge 4.65
Mafaaz* 40.5
Musket Man* 25.5
Old Fashioned 16.15
Papa Clem 40 (Bodog)
Pioneerof the Nile 10.15
Quality Road 8.85
Regal Ransom* 35.5
Terrain* 38.5
Win Willy* 22.5
Mutuel Field("All Others") 4.65

Odds have dropped considerably on Chocolate Candy, Papa Clem and Friesen Fire. Odds have gone up a bit on IWR, QR, Win Willy, and All Others. The effective takeout from this combined line is 13.6%.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Here are the best odds I could find today. Unless otherwise indicated, the best odds were at TheGreek.com.

I Want Revenge ** 5 (Bookmaker.com)
Dunkirk ** 6.25
Quality Road ** 6.25
Friesan Fire ** 8.25
Pioneer of the Nile ** 8.25
Papa Clem ** 15.25
Chocolate Candy ** 18.15
Desert Party ** 24 (Bookmaker.com)
Musket Man ** 28.5
Square Eddie ** 33 (Bookmaker.com)
Hold Me Back ** 35.5
General Quarters ** 38.5
Regal Ransom ** 40.5
West Side Bernie ** 51 (Bookmaker.com)
Flying Private ** 85 (Bodog)
Giant Oak ** 52.5
Mine That Bird ** 65.5
Charitable Man ** 85.5

If these horses were the only ones that could possibly make it to the Derby, the combined odds would represent a 3.3% takeout. So the actual takeout depends on what value you put on "all others" at this point.

As of Apr 12, Wynn's futures had QR at 7-1 and Flying Private at 100-1. (Other Wynn futures were inferior to the list above.)

--Dunbar

PS--I don't know why those asterisks showed up with the names. They aren't in my EXCEL table.

[Dunbar]

Since yesterday, the odds on some of the favs have come down, the odds on some of the longshots have risen:

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 6.25
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 40.5
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 60.5
Advice 40.5

All odds are at TheGreek except Dunkirk's 6-1 which is at World Sports Exchange (wsex.com). CRIS/Bookmaker and Bodog haven't had lines up today.

The above odds have an overall vig of 13.6% plus the chance that a horse not on the list wins the Derby.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 6.25
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 40.5
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 60.5
Advice 40.5

Changes since yesterday: (Bookmaker and WSEX have their odds back up)

Friesan Fire is now available at 7-1 at Bookmaker. (Bookmaker also had IWR briefly at 5-1 and Dunkirk at 6-1 today, but those were knocked down.

West Side Bernie is available at 51-1 at Bookmaker

Atomic Rain is available at 99-1 at Bookmaker.

Here are the updated best available future odds:

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6 wsex.com
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 7 Bookmaker
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5

Unless otherwise noted, the best odds were at TheGreek. (fwiw, Bodog still has no line up)

The vig from those odds is 11.7% plus the chance that some horse not on the list wins the Derby.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Whoa! Just noticed that 5Dimes has put up some Derby futures. 5Dimes now has the best price on 7 of the 8 lowest odds horses. (all except IWR):

Dunkirk 6.5
Quality Road 6.25
Friesan Fire 8.25
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5
Papa Clem 22
Chocolate Candy 21
Desert Party 26

Combining these future odds with the ones above (and eliminating Giant Oak) results in a vig of 2.8% (plus the remote chance any horse not listed wins the race.)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Best odds this morning:

I Want Revenge 4.5 World Sports Exch
Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes
Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes
Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes
Papa Clem 22 5Dimes
Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes
Desert Party 26 5Dimes
Musket Man 33 5Dimes
Square Eddie 40.5 TheGreek
Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek
General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek
Regal Ransom 40.5 TheGreek
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek
Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek
Charitable Man 85.5 TheGreek
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5 TheGreek

Odds have dropped on IWR and Musket Man, otherwise no change from yesterday. I removed Take the Points from the list because Pletcher said he is unlikely to enter.

--Dunbar

Effective "takeout" is 2.8% plus chance some other horse wins.

[Dunbar]

Wynn Las Vegas beats that list with these horses:

Quality Road 7-1
Flying Private 75-1
Atomic Rain 125-1

--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

9/2 on I Want Revenge and 7/1 on Quality Road both look like gifts.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

9/2 on I Want Revenge and 7/1 on Quality Road both look like gifts.

Agree- I highly doubt either go off at those prices in 11 days. I guess they're offering a point for time value.

I think IWR goes off at 7/2 or 4/1 (right around $10.00) and QR goes off at 5/1 or 11/2.

I could see Regal Ransom at under 40-1 on the tote as well.

For sake of argument, here's what I see it at a 16% takeout (with the top 20 in earnings expected to go):

Horse odds
I Want Revenge 3.70
Quality Road 5.40
Pioneerof the Nile 7.50
Dunkirk 8.40
Friesan Fire 10.90
General Quarters 16.90
Papa Clem 18.60
Square Eddie 19.40
Regal Ransom 22.00
Desert Party 22.00
Musket Man 23.70
Hold Me Back 27.10
Chocolate Candy 27.90
West Side Bernie 29.60
Win Willy 33.90
Advice 42.40
Mr. Hot Stuff 63.70
Summer Bird 63.70
Mine That Bird 67.90
Flying Private 67.90

[jms62]

Got QRoad at 6-1 pool 3, Musket Man at 25-1 pool 3 and General Quarters at 75-1 on Bodog prior to his Keeneland win

[CSC]

Chocolate Candy at 27.9 : 1 even with a personal favorite of mine Mike Smith aboard would be attractive if he went off in the same ball park on the day of the derby. He's the best overlay on the list in my opinion, if you like POTN best not to forget him.

[Dunbar]

Today's best...

I Want Revenge 4.25 TheGreek
Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes
Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes
Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes
Papa Clem 22 5Dimes
Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes
Desert Party 26 5Dimes
Musket Man 33 5Dimes
Square Eddie 38 5Dimes
Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek
General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek
Regal Ransom 33 5Dimes
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek
Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5 TheGreek
Summer Bird 30 Bookmaker
Win Willy 40.5 TheGreek
Mr. Hot Stuff 35 wsex

The 4.5-1 on IWR at wsex is gone. TheGreek dropped its odds on Regal Ransom and Square Eddie without raising odds on any other horse.

I added Summer Bird, Win Willy and Mr. Hot Stuff to my list to make it consistent with the sticky "likely derby starters" thread. Dropped Charitable Man.

The takeout from this list of 21 horses is 10.5%, but about 6% of that is due to ridiculously low odds on Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff. Bookmaker was the only sportsbook I checked that had odds on Summer Bird. Only Bookmaker and wsex have odds on Mr. Hot Stuff. Then again, Bookmaker still has odds up on The Pamplemousse, and wsex still has odds up on Nicanor (a juicy 60-1!)

--Dunbar

Edit: I didn't include Wynn Las Vegas odds today because I can't be sure the odds from Monday's sheet are still available.

[Dunbar]

Today's best...

I Want Revenge 4.25 5dimes
Dunkirk 6.5 5dimes
Quality Road 6.25 TheGreek
Friesan Fire 8.5 5dimes
Pioneer of the Nile 9 5dimes
Papa Clem 25 5dimes
Chocolate Candy 24 5dimes
Desert Party 26 5dimes
Musket Man 33 5dimes
Square Eddie 38 5dimes
Hold Me Back 33 5dimes
General Quarters 30.5 TheGreek
Regal Ransom 33 5dimes
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek
Mine That Bird 60.5 TheGreek
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5 TheGreek
Summer Bird 30.5 TheGreek
Win Willy 52.5 TheGreek
Mr. Hot Stuff 35 wsex


5Dimes is offering odds on just 15 horses, but it has the highest odds on 11 of those 15. They lowered their odds on QR, but what I like is that they raised the odds on POTN, FF, and several others. Some books act like the only direction on odds is down. I don't remember 5Dimes being so competitive with horse futures before.

The above 21-horse odds line has a takeout (vig) of 8.4%. The real takeout from these odds is 8.4% plus the chance some horse not on the list wins the Derby.

--Dunbar

[CharlieR]

I have a few horses left from the first future bet. We're not talking about having more than a few dollars on each but it's nice to have a little action going already.
Chocolate Candy 28-1
Giant Oak 24-1
I Want Revenge 54-1
West Side Bernie 40-1

In the Exacta Pool
I have these four horses each boxed with the field @9-2.
Chocolate Candy 29-1
Friesan Fire 8-1
I Want Revenge 10-1
West Side Bernie 43-1

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by CharlieR

I have a few horses left from the first future bet. We're not talking about having more than a few dollars on each but it's nice to have a little action going already.
Chocolate Candy 28-1
Giant Oak 24-1
I Want Revenge 54-1
West Side Bernie 40-1

In the Exacta Pool
I have these four horses each boxed with the field @9-2.
Chocolate Candy 29-1
Friesan Fire 8-1
I Want Revenge 10-1
West Side Bernie 43-1

Best of luck.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by CharlieR

I have a few horses left from the first future bet. We're not talking about having more than a few dollars on each but it's nice to have a little action going already.
Chocolate Candy 28-1
Giant Oak 24-1
I Want Revenge 54-1
West Side Bernie 40-1

In the Exacta Pool
I have these four horses each boxed with the field @9-2.
Chocolate Candy 29-1
Friesan Fire 8-1
I Want Revenge 10-1
West Side Bernie 43-1

I thought I heard Giant Oak was out.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I thought I heard Giant Oak was out.

they are FUTURE bets

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by robfla

they are FUTURE bets

Right, but Merlinsky's point is that CharlieR shouldn't count Giant Oak among his "horses left from the first future bet".

--Dunbar

Originally Posted by CharlieR

I have a few horses left from the first future bet. We're not talking about having more than a few dollars on each but it's nice to have a little action going already.
Chocolate Candy 28-1
Giant Oak 24-1
I Want Revenge 54-1
West Side Bernie 40-1

In the Exacta Pool
I have these four horses each boxed with the field @9-2.
Chocolate Candy 29-1
Friesan Fire 8-1
I Want Revenge 10-1
West Side Bernie 43-1

Quality Road is out.
Looking even better.