Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They were legit.

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Compare them now,

A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.

Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.

He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

I bet I Want Revenge in that race - he had a dream trip and ran like a complete dog biscuit.

The pace was awfully slow in that race - and if it would have been run on dirt POTN would have never had a prayer.

I didn't think much of the race other than POTN was clearly the best horse in the race on that track .. and that IWR stinks on that track.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.

Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.

He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.

The money in the pools is not an equal representation of public opinion. In reality a minority controls the pools with their larger wagers.
"He should have been a bigger price" - yea according to public opinion he should have been 8-1 , after the good players bet he was 5-1.

I bet 200 each on Phil and JOJO, but I can see after the fact that I screwed up. Evaluating your own past performance isn't about whether you win or lose(in the short term), and it isn't about what Joe-Public "should have" thought at the time of the race.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I bet I Want Revenge in that race - he had a dream trip and ran like a complete dog biscuit.

The pace was awfully slow in that race - and if it would have been run on dirt POTN would have never had a prayer.

I didn't think much of the race other than POTN was clearly the best horse in the race on that track .. and that IWR stinks on that track.

I don't know if anyone else agrees but all 3 of these horses pailed in comparison to The Pamplemousse, the more I think about it he would have been my horse if he were running in the Derby had he not gotten hurt, to me he was the most impressive 3 yr old I saw to this point, the only question mark he had was could be handle dirt, my opinion would have been a resounding yes.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

he should have been 8-1 , after the good players bet he was 5-1.

Let the "good players" pound horses like that down to 5/1 .... they won't still be around the game betting a lot of money for very long .. unless they have deep pockets and a willingness to lose a lot of money.

[Bobby Fischer]

pamplemousse would never have gotten 10 furlongs on the dirt. He wouldn't get 9 furlongs at Keeneland either.

He was a talented horse who could control the pace and whose aptitude for turf was carrying him farther than his genetic ability over that pro-ride surface.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let the "good players" pound horses like that down to 5/1 .... they won't still be around the game betting a lot of money for very long .. unless they have deep pockets and a willingness to lose a lot of money.

Maybe so.
I really happen to think 5-1 was closer to break even on that play for Quality Road.

However:
Don't get me wrong, I think in hindsight the play would NOT have been to bet Quality Road to win, but to pass the race. If you had a vulnerable favorite in one of the other legs, you would include all three FOY contenders in those (double/pick3/pick4) tickets.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's actually not very fast - coming out of two extremely slow paced races he will have to show a lot more early speed - which he might be capable of - to make the early lead in the Derby.

But if he does ... I think he'd be a prime candidate to finish 18th beaten 25 lengths.

18th beaten just 25 lengths?

You're too kind. You must be secretly afraid Rashard Lewis reads this board.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

pamplemousse would never have gotten 10 furlongs on the dirt. He wouldn't get 9 furlongs at Keeneland either.

He was a talented horse who could control the pace and whose aptitude for turf was carrying him farther than his genetic ability over that pro-ride surface.

Are you sure? You weren't watching the same races I was watching, I know a distanced challenged Kafwain argument is not far way, all I know is he had a high cruising speed and he certainly didn't look distance challenged the way he won his races.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

Are you sure? You weren't watching the same races I was watching, I know a distanced challenged Kafwain argument is not far way, all I know is he had a high cruising speed and he certainly didn't look distance challenged the way he won his races.

we'll never know , maybe he would have won the KY Derby.

I base opinion on the following

his conduit mare stamina index is extremely poor. Worse than nearly all 2009 derby contenders, and worse than any derby winner in at least the last 30 years

my observation that horses who like the pro-ride surface can race and train at longer distances than they normally could
-related that Pamplemousse has good breeding for a turf sprinter, and he has a high knee action in his stride which also hints that he likes turf.

Being by Kafwain probably doesn't help, I'm not too sire oriented but it probably isn't a big positive

I think he would be fine on dirt, just that he would quit after a mile or so

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

he has a high knee action in his stride which also hints that he likes turf.

You do realize they said the same thing about Barbaro? I do think at times we are too engrossed with pedigree when we should just concentrate if a horse can run.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think some of the posts in this thread should be moved to the bulls.hit thread.....immediately.

We are approaching KYRIM "crossfiring" analyses at this point.
I actually noticed a horse at Keeneland doing that the other day.



He won by 5.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think some of the posts in this thread should be moved to the bulls.hit thread.....immediately.

I nominate all my posts to be moved to the bull$hit thread. I should be working...but I'm wasting my time on this board.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by CSC

I nominate all my posts to be moved to the bull$hit thread. I should be working...but I'm wasting my time on this board.

I say who gives a $hit about work. I can make (or lose) a lot more money on the Kentucky Derby than I can at my fu.cking job right now! Prioritization is the key to success, right?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by philcski

I say who gives a $hit about work. I can make (or lose) a lot more money on the Kentucky Derby than I can at my fu.cking job right now! Prioritization is the key to success, right?

ah...okay Phil

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wonder how much not having lasix had to do with Quality Road's allowance loss?

He's run two monster races since adding lasix - and the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

I think his loss was due to his slow break and then being sent. Or am I thinking of a different race?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That would be his only loss.

I didn't see much of a trip excuse myself. He made wild improvement in his next race.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by CSC

You do realize they said the same thing about Barbaro? I do think at times we are too engrossed with pedigree when we should just concentrate if a horse can run.

apples and oranges

Barbaro had the best conduit mare stamina index of any Derby winner in at least the last 37 years.

Barbaro had proven himself over real turf to get the distance.

Barbaro didn't run on the pro ride ride surface, potentially masking his distance deficiencies.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That would be his only loss.

I didn't see much of a trip excuse myself. He made wild improvement in his next race.

Yeah, if I remember, he broke a tad slow and was hard sent to make up the lost early ground.