Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[HaloWishingwell]

PIONEEROF THE NILE worked 4 furlongs in 46:20 at Santa Anita. Even though he hasn't shown it yet as rank as he was the last race, could he show the way if no one wants it?

[Pedigree Ann]

Mentioned on TV yesterday that Baffert has changed the bit on PotN from a ring bit (more severe) to a more standard D-bit. BB had used the ring bit because he had come to him using it, but decided after the horse had fought against it recently to try something else. PotN went nicely in the workout, no pulling or head-throwing.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Mentioned on TV yesterday that Baffert has changed the bit on PotN from a ring bit (more severe) to a more standard D-bit. BB had used the ring bit because he had come to him using it, but decided after the horse had fought against it recently to try something else. PotN went nicely in the workout, no pulling or head-throwing.

Send it in!!!

[CSC]

With QR also out who's going to make the pace now? Regal Ransom or Papa Clem?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

With QR also out who's going to make the pace now? Regal Ransom or Papa Clem?

Join in the Dance joins the mix too.

[CSC]

2008 70 81 90 94 96 Big Brown
2007 77 86 92 93 96 Street Sense
2006 78 86 88 90 97 Barbaro
2005 86 92 95 95 93 Giacomo
2004 78 88 90 95 95 Smarty Jones
2003 74 84 89 94 96 Funny Cide
2002 68 79 84 92 98 War Emblem

Randy Moss pace analysis of previous derbies.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by CSC

2008 70 81 90 94 96 Big Brown
2007 77 86 92 93 96 Street Sense
2006 78 86 88 90 97 Barbaro
2005 86 92 95 95 93 Giacomo
2004 78 88 90 95 95 Smarty Jones
2003 74 84 89 94 96 Funny Cide
2002 68 79 84 92 98 War Emblem

Randy Moss pace analysis of previous derbies.

They go back to '92 here:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...cehistory.html

Lots of other cool stuff on the DRF Derby tabs too.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

According to Moss pace numbers ... that would mean ...

Fastest figure for 1/4 mile in Derby since '92: Spanish Chestnut

Fastest figure for 1/2 mile in Derby since '92: Songandaprayer

Fastest figure for 3/4 mile in Derby since '92: (tie) Songandaprayer & Spanish Chestnut

Fasest figure for 1 mile in Derby since '92: (tie) Unbridled's Song - and whoever was in front after a mile in '98 .. I think either Real Quiet or Indian Charlie

Fastest figure for final time since '92: Monarchos


Spanish Chestnut actually returned off a long layoff in his first start since the Derby and won a 6f race in 1:08 flat with a triple digit Beyer. He was a nice rabbit. He actually sold for 500K at OBS Feb 2yo sale - a lot of money for a son of Horse Chestnut out of a No Sale George mare who raced for a cheap tag at Calder. Giacomo owes him a big thank you.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

According to Moss pace numbers ... that would mean ...

Fastest figure for 1/4 mile in Derby since '92: Spanish Chestnut

Fastest figure for 1/2 mile in Derby since '92: Songandaprayer

Fastest figure for 3/4 mile in Derby since '92: (tie) Songandaprayer & Spanish Chestnut

Fasest figure for 1 mile in Derby since '92: (tie) Unbridled's Song - and whoever was in front after a mile in '98 .. I think either Real Quiet or Indian Charlie

Fastest figure for final time since '92: Monarchos


Spanish Chestnut actually returned off a long layoff in his first start since the Derby and won a 6f race in 1:08 flat with a triple digit Beyer. He was a nice rabbit. He actually sold for 500K at OBS Feb 2yo sale - a lot of money for a son of Horse Chestnut out of a No Sale George mare who raced for a cheap tag at Calder. Giacomo owes him a big thank you.

I wonder what happened to Spanish Chestnut? On another forum someone said he was made a stable pony.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Probably was.

He sure ruined any possible chance Bellamy Road could have ever had in that race.

Probably ruined Afleet Alex as well.

I thought Afleet Alex was being mismanaged and would have been a monster one-turn sprinter miler ...

I don't know if I thought that because he was defeated in each of his first three route attempts by the stellar trio of Proud Accolade, Wilko, and Greater Good.

Or maybe it was his Sprinter/miler pedigree combined with the fact he swerved like a drunken sailor to run down Devil's Disciple in the Hopeful.

Either way - great peice of training by Tim Ritchey. I was wrong on that call.

[CSC]

Interesting I didn't notice this before but I went back and took a look at Regal Ransom's races from Dubai and I concluded he is a much better horse than I first originally gave him credit for. I don't think the gap between him and Desert Party is as large as widely thought of and with this year's possible pace scenario, he's a very interesting horse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Don't think Desert Party doesn't have early zip if he is asked for it.

He worked an 1/8th in 10.20 at Calder last year - en route to beating out highly impressive debut winners Munnings and Mr. Mistofflees for the honor of being the sales topper at the nations best 2-year-old sale.

For a son of Street Cry (who won the Stephen Foster going 9fs at CD with a 118 Beyer) and out of a Tabasco Cat mare (TC was 2nd in the BC Classic at Churchill with a 115 Beyer) ... he sure does have some good zip.

I'm not actually sold on Tector's point that a horse can't win the Derby coming from Dubai ... I just would have liked to have seen this horse been a little better at age two.

Hard to argue that anything that tops FT Calder is really a slow developer either. So there goes the "but what if he's vastly improved?" card.

[NTamm1215]

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Don't think Desert Party doesn't have early zip if he is asked for it.

He worked an 1/8th in 10.20 at Calder last year - en route to beating out highly impressive debut winners Munnings and Mr. Mistofflees for the honor of being the sales topper at the nations best 2-year-old sale.

For a son of Street Cry (who won the Stephen Foster going 9fs at CD with a 118 Beyer) and out of a Tabasco Cat mare (TC was 2nd in the BC Classic at Churchill with a 115 Beyer) ... he sure does have some good zip.

I'm not actually sold on Tector's point that a horse can't win the Derby coming from Dubai ... I just would have liked to have seen this horse been a little better at age two.

Hard to argue that anything that tops FT Calder is really a slow developer either. So there goes the "but what if he's vastly improved?" card.

Times are changing, I keep reminding myself of this when looking at this year's race. Derby myths = traps. It should be my signature to remind me of this fact. A horse will win going synth to dirt 1st time and a horse will win from prepping in Dubai one day. Will it be this year? I don't know, but I'm partial in thinking RR is a real nice horse.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

The Sanford wasn't great but he did win the race. For Regal Ransom, I'll toss the Norfolk as disliking the poly- he was 7/5 in the race for what it's worth.

I would like Regal Ransom a lot more if Pletcher didn't enter that ridiculous Join in the Dance, who has about as much chance of winning the Derby as I do winning the New York Marathon. Of course, he can ruin it for a lot of other horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I would like Regal Ransom a lot more if Pletcher didn't enter that ridiculous Join in the Dance, who has about as much chance of winning the Derby as I do winning the New York Marathon. Of course, he can ruin it for a lot of other horses.

Join in the Dance actually worked a nice quarter mile in 21.60 at FT Calder and was one of the ones I liked.

What was crazy about him though - is that despite the quick and decent looking work - he only RNA'd for 90K ... that after selling for 130K as a September yearling.

Obviously there had to be a reason or story why no one wanted to touch him.

[CSC]

Regal Ransom's 93 debut beyer is only 3 points lower than POTN best lifetime beyer and better than any of Square Eddie's. Numbers aside he's going to be a good horse at a good price.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Regal Ransom also came out of FT Calder. 10.20 work for him. Nice to see like almost all of the pace in this race came from the same sale.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Join in the Dance actually worked a nice quarter mile in 21.60 at FT Calder and was one of the ones I liked.

What was crazy about him though - is that despite the quick and decent looking work - he only RNA'd for 90K ... that after selling for 130K as a September yearling.

Obviously there had to be a reason or story why no one wanted to touch him.

JITD would be a nice fit for races like the Dwyer, Lone Star Derby, etc. not as a sacrificial lamb in the Kentucky Derby. I'm guessing he was a private purchase out of the Arlington race- and shockingly, Pletcher hasn't moved him up an inch.

[CSC]

Plus his race on 2/12/09 was abit misleading, O'Donohue didn't have him in a good position in that race though he was abit slow to start. Alot will be made he rode the bias on DWC day, but when Desert Party came to him he was game and won on his own merit in my opinion. They could have kept running another furlong and he would have had a tough time getting by. That race wasn't a case of a 'Well Armed' alone on the lead ride the bias...