Who will be the "wise guy" horse???

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Point Determined? I can't remember what he went off at, but I thought it was low.

He was 9/1 ... the slug I bet that year was A P Warrior.

They had a brilliant stretch battle in the Affirmed Handicap next out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

His ordinal rank in the wagering was pretty much in line with his proven ability. I'd say last year really lacked a wiseguy horse, unless you want to say Pyro was somewhat that type (finishing 2nd to last in his final prep and still going off single digits.)

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

Wise guy horse to me is the horse or horses that have been largely left in that middle group of harder to envision possible winners (15-1 or more) coming up to Derby Week, that suddenly get noticed by media because they have a flashy move, look particularly terrific physically, etc.

That group of candidates moving towards Monday are the Godolphins, Square Eddie, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back and Musket Man.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That's totally different than my definition.

I guess the term means different things to different people.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Wise guy horse to me is the horse or horses that have been largely left in that middle group of harder to envision possible winners (15-1 or more) coming up to Derby Week, that suddenly get noticed by media because they have a flashy move, look particularly terrific physically, etc.

That group of candidates moving towards Monday are the Godolphins, Square Eddie, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back and Musket Man.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

I agree with Steve. The "chatter" horse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I expect Desert Party and Dunkirk to be the two most likely to impress on looks.

I Want Revenge's start in the Wood will probably be shown on tv a whole bunch of times.

I guess Desert Party would be my wiseguy horse pick on both definitions because IWR and Dunkirk have the naked form to take a lot of money.

DP's 2yo figures are very slow - and his defeat at the hands of Regal Ransom was better than looked.

And being a $2 million+ two year old - it's a cinch he both looks great and works out well. So he'll wow the people there.

His sire has already sired a Derby winner. His dam sire was 2nd in the BC Classic at Churchill.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by philcski

The "chatter" horse.

Same way I see the term.


there is also the win pool wise guy horse - When you see the actual odds, and a horse who was supposed to be a 4th choice is second choice in the betting etc...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Maybe Dollar Bill wasn't a wiseguy horse in that case ... although I guess it's possible he could have looked good the week of the race and everything like that.

The stretch trouble he had in his 4th place finish behind Fifty Stars was shown over and over on tv. And the drubbing he took in the Blue Grass by Millenium Wind was rightly disregarded by all the commentators because of the track playing against him.

He would seem like the all-time classic example by my definition.

Being the 2nd choice - and a shorter price than horses like Congaree, Monarchos, Balto Star etc etc off of a 4th to Fifty Stars and a distant 3rd to Millennium Wind - and after taking a total beating in the BC Juvenile over that track the prior year.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Maybe Dollar Bill wasn't a wiseguy horse in that case ... although I guess it's possible he could have looked good the week of the race and everything like that.

The stretch trouble he had in his 4th place finish behind Fifty Stars was shown over and over on tv. And the drubbing he took in the Blue Grass by Millenium Wind was rightly disregarded by all the commentators because of the track playing against him.

He would seem like the all-time classic example by my definition.

Being the 2nd choice - and a shorter price than horses like Congaree, Monarchos, Balto Star etc etc off of a 4th to Fifty Stars and a distant 3rd to Millennium Wind - and after taking a total beating in the BC Juvenile over that track the prior year.

He is the all-time classic example to me as well. Usually the chatter starts with workouts or looks but in his case it was trips discussion (as you said, they showed it over and over on tv). I have no idea what he looked like that week- it was really before live blogging, twitter coverage, whatever gave you an update on the color and consistency of each horses' dumps.

Basically my definition is "what are his odds relative to the actual ability he's shown" and a wiseguy horse would be one that gets bet down from say 25-1 to at or under 10-1.

[randallscott35]

I think Borrego is a good example of a wise guy horse.

[ninetoone]

For what it's worth, the OP's (thread starter's) definition of a wise guy horse was, "the horse for the Derby that gets a lot of action that we aren't thinking about right now". Obviously everyone's definition is different. I'll stick with Desert Party.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I think Borrego is a good example of a wise guy horse.

I remember being conflicted as to if I would bet Borrego or The Cliff's Edge that year.

Borrego was 2nd by just 1.5 lengths to Smarty Jones in the Ark Derby - and The Cliff's Edge had ran down Lion Heart over Kee's speed track ... I actually thought both of them were very generous prices and not taking money.

Tapit at 6/1 and Master David at 10/1 out of that very slow 98 Beyer Wood Memorial were the two overbet that year. Borrego was 14/1 off of running a 107 Beyer in his last race.

[randallscott35]

I bet Borrego and he didn't run his race till the JCGold Cup years later.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He won the Pacific Classic with a big pace setup the start before the Jockey Club Gold Cup ... but yeah, he really sucked for a long while after his good 2nd in the Ark Derby.

The Cliff's Edge sucked pretty bad after beating Lion Heart in the Blue Grass as well.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I think Borrego is a good example of a wise guy horse.

2004: I vote Master David @ 10-1.

for posterity, here's what I'll vote for this millenium:
2008: ? Pyro... I guess... but the field was so bad somebody had to take action
2007: Any Given Saturday (although his odds were still reasonable)
2006: Point Determined (unquestionably)
2005: Noble Causeway (unquestionably)
2004: Master David (unquestionably)
2003: Atswhatimtalkinbout (although debatable)
2002: Saarland
2001: Dollar Bill (unquestionably)
2000: ? tough call. don't really have one to offer

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I bet Borrego and he didn't run his race till the JCGold Cup years later.

He went off at fair odds though. 17-1, or the 7th (?) choice, seemed reasonable to me. He was a good runner up to the favorite in his final prep- one could argue he should have been lower.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by philcski

He went off at fair odds though. 17-1, or the 7th (?) choice, seemed reasonable to me. He was a good runner up to the favorite in his final prep- one could argue he should have been lower.

I thought he went off at 14-1

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I thought he went off at 14-1

Mid teens, I can't remember exactly off the top of my head.

[CSC]

I'm not going to start it, but a thread on "Derby Busts" would yield some interesting memories. Ie. Bellamy Road, Bandini...ect