Win Willy won't be winning on Saturday

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's OK to not like Dunkirk but to compare him to Summer Bird or to try and make a hopeless case that Dunkirk would be getting as much pub as SB if he was trained by Tim Ice is completely idiotic.

NT

Really? You don't think people are in love with the horse more so because of the connections than his actual on-track performance? My opinion might be misguided, but I think idiotic is a little over the top.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Really? You don't think people are in love with the horse more so because of the connections than his actual on-track performance? My opinion might be misguided, but I think idiotic is a little over the top.

NO

[slotdirt]

Well, with all due respect, I think you guys are dead wrong.

[cowgirlintexas]

And just think how small the Derby would be if they based getting in on Graded earnings...

[MISTERGEE]

next in line Ricks Natural Star

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Really? You don't think people are in love with the horse more so because of the connections than his actual on-track performance? My opinion might be misguided, but I think idiotic is a little over the top.

Clearly you and I disagree on how many people like Dunkirk based on him being trained by Todd Pletcher. I mean, who wouldn't be drawn to a horse trained by a guy who's 0-20 in the Derby and has a 3 year dead ass last streak going? I think he has a chance but I couldn't possibly care less who trains him.

I think if Dunkirk was trained by a mid-range Florida horseman, like Ice is a mid-range midwest horseman, he would be getting plenty of support because he has done enough on the track to garner support.

NT

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I feel bad for Mac, though he doesn't seem to be that bothered by it...which doesn't really surprise me in the least.

I agree with whoever said it's getting kind of funny. All these stragglers are getting in, and the list of real contenders has been dropping steadily for weeks now.

What looked like one the more exciting runnings of the Derby now looks more like an obstacle course. Four horses running for the win around 16 moving pylons trying to block their way.

I agree... I was so excited for an amazing Derby a month ago.... Now like you said.. 4 contenders and 16 pretenders (and you know two of those pretenders will be in the super so it makes it way difficult)

[slotdirt]

I think the average Derby better will care who trains a horse, especially if it's as big a name as Pletcher.

At the end of the day, I'm just not fond of Dunkirk given the price he's going to be, and think there are a variety of options out there that are going to pay a heck of a lot better that are potentially equally as talented as he.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't disagree with that, but I think if Dunkirk were somehow trained by Tim Ice and not owned by Coolmore, he'd be thought of much more like Summer Bird when it comes to his Derby chances.

Who wants to give me odds that Summer Bird finishes higher than Dunkirk on Saturday? Anyone?

15-1

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Well, with all due respect, I think you guys are dead wrong.

hey you shouldnt be upset... you are going to get high odds on Summer Bird (if he is under 30-1 you should pass on him though) where dunkirk will be in the top three choices.

[slotdirt]

I think you're misunderstanding me. I don't fancy Summer Bird's chances in the least; I just think as a general principle betting on Derby starters with zero 2YO starts and three races under their belts is foolish in the long run.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

15-1

Now, if this wasn't the internet, we could shake on it.

[lemoncrush]

Clearly this is oversimplified, but if there's no "Quality Road" in the Florida Derby, Dunkirk comes in to the Derby very similar to Big Brown last year:
Undefeated in 3 starts, and more importantly, winning easily by open lengths in each start, including the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Not to mention, winning an allowance race at the GP distance where if you're hung out wide on the first turn like he was, you're basically screwed.

I haven't been a big Dunkirk fan this Spring, but rewatching his 3 races, I can't help but feel he could eventually be the best of this crop. I'm just not sure he'll be the best by this Saturday.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Now, if this wasn't the internet, we could shake on it.

I'm not willing to wager more than a six pack on that...

[slotdirt]

At 15-1, I'd owe you a LOT of beer.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think the average Derby better will care who trains a horse, especially if it's as big a name as Pletcher.

At the end of the day, I'm just not fond of Dunkirk given the price he's going to be, and think there are a variety of options out there that are going to pay a heck of a lot better that are potentially equally as talented as he.

There's nothing wrong with liking/disliking Dunkirk and if you believe he provides no value then I would absolutely encourage you to look elsewhere.

However, that doesn't mean you should even posit the argument that his credentials are similar to Summer Bird, who has a suck-up third in a fast-paced race to his credit.

NT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by cowgirlintexas

And just think how small the Derby would be if they based getting in on Graded earnings...

??

[Indian Charlie]

Has anyone else ever noticed that when a derby is shaping up to be particularly deep for a given year, as we get nearer to the race the race starts to fall apart with injuries?

[Rootdog1]

I like both dunkirk and summer bird so I have no dawg in this fight. I dont think either will win...I think tri / super material. Obviously summer at 40-1 as a dead closer is what appeals to me.

[slotdirt]

Sounds like this "the Wizard" character is on the same page as I regarding Summer Bird. Is an "OOOOOHHHH!!" or some other such exclamation in order here, or would that be an overreaction?

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/ne...derby-profiles