Mind that Bird last race before the derby - Page 2

Danzig · #21 05-05-2009, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I know, I know, different track, different day, different surface, blah, blah, blah, but for comparison's purposes, Ghostzapper ran the last half in his 2004 Breeders Cup Classic in 47.70.

aren't you comparing apples to caviar there?

slotdirt · #22 05-05-2009, 09:42 AM

It's why I made the caveat on different day, different surface. I don't think people are truly understanding just how fast Mine that Bird came home the other day.

Danzig · #23 05-05-2009, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

It's why I made the caveat on different day, different surface. I don't think people are truly understanding just how fast Mine that Bird came home the other day.

can't speak for everyone else...but i don't care how fast he came home the other day.

it may be a different day and different surface, but i'd take GZ over a one hit wonder any day.

brianwspencer · #24 05-05-2009, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

can't speak for everyone else...but i don't care how fast he came home the other day.

it may be a different day and different surface, but i'd take GZ over a one hit wonder any day.

He ran a good race, sure. But he's not actually any good, and I think that future results will prove that to be correct. He loved a surface over which other horses were spinning their wheels and got a sweet trip while sprinting home for a half-mile.

It kind of is what it is, and after much soul searching over the last few days, I'm willing to chalk this Derby up to "$hit happens," and move on with my life.

slotdirt · #25 05-05-2009, 09:56 AM

Different conversation. I'd take Ghostzapper over the horse any day of the week and 37 times on Sunday. I'm just talking come home times in 10f races and just how freaking fast Mine that Bird came home the other day.

Antitrust32 · #26 05-05-2009, 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

can't speak for everyone else...but i don't care how fast he came home the other day.

it may be a different day and different surface, but i'd take GZ over a one hit wonder any day.

to be fair to the horse and connections he's not exactly a one hit wonder, he was champion 2yo in Canada.. and I mean, horses can improve a lot at this time of the year and I think we'll have to watch him for the rest of the year before he can be called a one hit wonder. Do I expect him to be a super star? no.. but he probably can be competitive in some races, especially Grade 2 or 3 types. There are a handful of good horses at the top of the barrel this year, but besides them and the talented sprinters out there, the division is pretty weak, who's to say Mine That Bird cant have a solid year in the right spots? also he seems to like the poly track... and we all know how many stakes races are run on artificial surfaces..

And I really doubt slotdirt was comparing him outright to GZ, just comparing the final fractions which are very impressive for Mine that bird.

gales0678 · #27 05-05-2009, 10:33 AM

the bottom line is he walked the first part of the race and then came home in the 47 and change that slot talks about - not that unlikely an occurence cosidering he had shown on his last race that he could run 45 and change

it just happened in different parts of the race that's all

slotdirt · #28 05-05-2009, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

the bottom line is he walked the first part of the race and then came home in the 47 and change that slot talks about - not that unlikely an occurence cosidering he had shown on his last race that he could run 45 and change

it just happened in different parts of the race that's all

You cannot be serious.

slotdirt · #29 05-05-2009, 10:37 AM

I have to apologize for posting this many times in a thread that can't even spell the Kentucky Derby winner's name right. How hard is it to spell "mine" anyway? I was firmly on the side of abbreviating horses being more annoying than misspelling their names, but I might become a convert.

gales0678 · #30 05-05-2009, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

You cannot be serious.

why not - if he ran 4f in 45 and change and then tired at sunland , why couldn't he come home in 47 and change in the deby

he jogged the 1st half mile in the derby , didn't use much of his energy , why couldn't he have had 1 run in him ? he ran those opening fractions in the last race

it was just the opposite in the derby but since he walked the 1st half of the race he had plenty of energy left for the closing 47 and change

slotdirt · #31 05-05-2009, 11:04 AM

Have you watched the Sunland Derby? Mine(d) that Bird sat about sixth for the first 3/8's or so, moved up on the outside shortly after the half, then nosed his way in front at the top of the stretch only to fold like a cheap suit in the last 1/16th. He was outfinished badly by another horse (Kelly Leak) who basically chased Mine(d) that Bird for the first 3/4, then ran around Mine(d) that Bird like he was standing still. This is not a prep that generally would inspire one to believe they had just seen the Kentucky Derby winner, no matter what the fractions were.

gales0678 · #32 05-05-2009, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Have you watched the Sunland Derby? Mine(d) that Bird sat about sixth for the first 3/8's or so, moved up on the outside shortly after the half, then nosed his way in front at the top of the stretch only to fold like a cheap suit in the last 1/16th. He was outfinished badly by another horse (Kelly Leak) who basically chased Mine(d) that Bird for the first 3/4, then ran around Mine(d) that Bird like he was standing still. This is not a prep that generally would inspire one to believe they had just seen the Kentucky Derby winner, no matter what the fractions were.

i didn't say it made him the winner - i only said that the 1st 2 calls of that race were the fastest of any derby prep at 1 1/8 - he was part of that pace

now go to the derby - what did he run the 1st 4f in - maybe :50 mayber more ? does anyone have that info

he jogged around the track and came home in :47 and change , he had already shown in his last race he was capable of running that number for 4f

Antitrust32 · #33 05-05-2009, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm not singling you out, but I keep reading this and it has me baffled. He was 2 year old champ in Canada....So what? Have you looked at some of those races?

And when that Canadian champ came here to run against America's best 2 year olds last year, he finished dead last. I love Canada as much as the next person and I know we are trying to come up with reasons why a horse that should have been 100-1 just romped in the Derby. But the 2 year old champ in Canada thing seems like a moot point.

hey its still an accomplishment and it still means he showed up for those races last year.. usually it takes a good horse to win 4 races in a row.. even if they are canadian races!

cakes44 · #34 05-05-2009, 11:14 AM

Every horse in training can run that number for 4 furlongs. Running that number in the slop after running for 3/4 a mile already is what has everyone puzzled.

Danzig · #35 05-05-2009, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm not singling you out, but I keep reading this and it has me baffled. He was 2 year old champ in Canada....So what? Have you looked at some of those races?

And when that Canadian champ came here to run against America's best 2 year olds last year, he finished dead last. I love Canada as much as the next person and I know we are trying to come up with reasons why a horse that should have been 100-1 just romped in the Derby. But the 2 year old champ in Canada thing seems like a moot point.

that's what is happening. comparing his fractions to GZ as tho it fastens credibility onto the horse.

he freaked in the slop. maybe someday he'll get lucky and have another sloppy track and freak again. i don't care how fast he ran at sunland, or that he was the 2 yo champ in canada-big deal. no one picked it up before saturday, so why is it a big deal now.

some things are unexplainable-like julia robers marrying lyle lovett. sometimes stuff happens for no damn reason.

now, if he wins again. on a fast track. vs horses that also run...then maybe there's more to the story.

slotdirt · #36 05-05-2009, 11:16 AM

First, he wasn't part of the pace in the Sunland Derby. Watch the race. The two horses in that race who led through the first half finished 11th and 12th, respectively. He was no more a part of the pace as Kelly Leak was.

Secondly, I don't even know where to begin on this idea that just because a horse may have run a 45-ish 4f at an entirely different part of a completely different race that the horse can just automatically take that half mile number and just magically apply it to a the stretch run of the motherf-ing Kentucky Derby.

Seriously, dude, stop looking for the answers to the Derby in the PP's. They're not there. Honestly. Everybody else is just as fooled as you are.

slotdirt · #37 05-05-2009, 11:19 AM

Danzig, I'm not trying to give the horse credibility, but I am pointing out just how insanely quick that last half mile is for a Derby winner, regardless of the track conditions. Remember how great Barbaro looked back in 2006? Mine(d) that Bird beat his last half by something like a full second.

dagolfer33 · #38 05-05-2009, 11:38 AM

The bottom line is that, barring injury, this colts legacy will play out over time and most of all of us can agree this race will not define his career. It could be the icing on the cake or just a fluke, however the result of this race was simply explainable in that the horse never had a decent jock on his back in the past and extreme tactics were used that were not used before with the horse. Regardless, MTB did do the running and won the race.

gales0678 · #39 05-05-2009, 11:43 AM

slot - what happens in the Preakness , if he can pair up like 3 yrs old do , someone is going to have to jump up to beat him no?

brianwspencer · #40 05-05-2009, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

hey its still an accomplishment and it still means he showed up for those races last year.. usually it takes a good horse to win 4 races in a row.. even if they are canadian races!

Of course. That makes him qualify as a neat horse...not a Kentucky Derby winner. There are times a horse wins four straight $10,000 starter allowances on the grass with Beyers in the 80s...it doesn't mean he should be able to go romp in the Arlington Million.

Sure, his Canadian form made him a cool little horse, but trying to say that it somehow validates what happened Saturday is ludicrous.