Mind that Bird last race before the derby - Page 3

Antitrust32 · #41 05-05-2009, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Of course. That makes him qualify as a neat horse...not a Kentucky Derby winner. There are times a horse wins four straight $10,000 starter allowances on the grass with Beyers in the 80s...it doesn't mean he should be able to go romp in the Arlington Million.

Sure, his Canadian form made him a cool little horse, but trying to say that it somehow validates what happened Saturday is ludicrous.

i know it doesnt qualify him as a derby winner... but at the end of the day, that 10,000 starter allow horse did wind up in the Arlington Million winners circle.

johnny pinwheel · #42 05-05-2009, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

First, he wasn't part of the pace in the Sunland Derby. Watch the race. The two horses in that race who led through the first half finished 11th and 12th, respectively. He was no more a part of the pace as Kelly Leak was.

Secondly, I don't even know where to begin on this idea that just because a horse may have run a 45-ish 4f at an entirely different part of a completely different race that the horse can just automatically take that half mile number and just magically apply it to a the stretch run of the motherf-ing Kentucky Derby.

Seriously, dude, stop looking for the answers to the Derby in the PP's. They're not there. Honestly. Everybody else is just as fooled as you are.

so true, the speed figure fools never accept outcomes like these. it proves their goofy numbers to be crap. a horse is an athlete, not a machine. i wish numbers could be assigned to performances and tell the future of a horses next peformance. it just does not work that way. the fig's will give winners from time to time but its not as reliable as all the jokers selling them want you to think. this is the beauty of horse racing, the track was crap, two main contenders did not even race and a couple logical horses were "done" when the gate opened. not to mention the winner loved the slop and ran like hes never run before and may never again. can't put a number on that, don't even try. in all sports efforts at times defy logic, thats why the game is played. if everyone knew who was going to win. who would really care ? the fact is no one knows and mathematics does not really apply.

johnny pinwheel · #43 05-05-2009, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What speed figure fools aren't accepting the outcome in this thread?

i don't know about this thread other then the guy that was trying to explain this horses final half. but, i've read beyers crap after he got burned at GP. believe me people are looking at these numbers and crying. they just don't work that good from track to track or suface to surface. if they did people would be winning all the time and it would not be gambling. i'll look at them but by no means is that the only reason to bet a horse. if it were the highest fig would win alot more than it does. some look at the numbers religiously which is ridiculous. any horse can win, with the right set-up and effort. a number can't tell you that. using your imagination though might. if every 6-5 shot with highest number won , i would hate racing.

MaTH716 · #44 05-05-2009, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i don't know about this thread other then the guy that was trying to explain this horses final half. but, i've read beyers crap after he got burned at GP. believe me people are looking at these numbers and crying. they just don't work that good from track to track or suface to surface. if they did people would be winning all the time and it would not be gambling. i'll look at them but by no means is that the only reason to bet a horse. if it were the highest fig would win alot more than it does. some look at the numbers religiously which is ridiculous. any horse can win, with the right set-up and effort. a number can't tell you that. using your imagination though might. if every 6-5 shot with highest number won , i would hate racing.

Didn't War Emblem have the highest Beyer going into the 2002 Derby? And he paid $43.00 to win, go figure.

slotdirt · #45 05-05-2009, 02:28 PM

I want to punch myself in the nads for continuing to post on this thread, but I'm not talking about figures or anything else, I am just discussing the insanity that was Mine that Bird's closing speed on Saturday.

gales0678 · #46 05-05-2009, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I want to punch myself in the nads for continuing to post on this thread, but I'm not talking about figures or anything else, I am just discussing the insanity that was Mine that Bird's closing speed on Saturday.

well what can you attribute it to? surely it has to be something? it just can't be one of those unexplained events

MaTH716 · #47 05-05-2009, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

well what can you attribute it to? surely it has to be something? it just can't be one of those unexplained events

15 horses didn't handle the mud. He handled it better than the other 3 who did.

gales0678 · #48 05-05-2009, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

15 horses didn't handle the mud. He handled it better than the other 3 who did.

what about the last 4 f in 47and change - 2nd fastest time in ky derby history?

slotdirt · #49 05-05-2009, 02:44 PM

I don't know that it was the second fastest in KD history. That might be extrapolating.

MaTH716 · #50 05-05-2009, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

what about the last 4 f in 47and change - 2nd fastest time in ky derby history?

He was on the best part of the track.

gales0678 · #51 05-05-2009, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

He was on the best part of the track.

but he was on the inside the whole way no?

Antitrust32 · #52 05-05-2009, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

but he was on the inside the whole way no?

um yes. but he wasnt asked to run except the final half mile

Shirley you have to know that.

gales0678 · #53 05-05-2009, 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

um yes. but he wasnt asked to run except the final half mile

Shirley you have to know that.

yes - he didn't get into him until the last 4f's or so no?

Antitrust32 · #54 05-05-2009, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

yes - he didn't get into him until the last 4f's or so no?

isnt that exactly what i said with my last post?

HaloWishingwell · #55 05-05-2009, 03:17 PM

I never gave a crap about the Sunland Derby and I'm not going to start analyzing it now. If it offends anyone then next year go there and get your picture taken next to their "The Derby Champ came from Sunland" sign.

Antitrust32 · #56 05-05-2009, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

I never gave a crap about the Sunland Derby and I'm not going to start analyzing it now. If it offends anyone then next year go there and get your picture taken next to their "The Derby Champ came from Sunland" sign.

well I'm offended.

Antitrust32 · #57 05-05-2009, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So wait, Mine That Bird only ran for like 4 furlongs and rode the rail? I just want to make sure I'm not missing anything.

hey dummy.. it wasnt 4 furlongs it was a half of a mile.

JerseyJ · #58 05-05-2009, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

but he was on the inside the whole way no?

I am a new poster here, but I will respond to this in a way to try and help explain to you what everyone is trying to say. If you take a look at internal fractions for the 3rd Race, a Maiden Special Weight, look at the internal fractions of the winner, Luv Gov and third place finisher Big Flirt. At the half mile pole, Luv Gov was approximately 5 3/4 lengths in front of Big Flirt, while having a nice rail run under Miguel Mena. At the three quarter split mark, Luv Gov is only 4 1/2 lengths in front of Big Flirt, and ends up by the time he hits the mile split, he's 5 3/4 lengths in front of Big Flirt. So Big Flirt gains 1 1/4 lengths on him from the half mile marker to the three quarter mile marker, until Luv Gov makes a giant run up the rail to regain those 1 1/4 lengths back as both horses run that split in exactly the same 48.4. so because of that rail run Luv Gov is able to get the distance and time that he needs to in order to angle out and explode past a tired Gold Brew. Just an example for you of how even being down on the rail for a short period of time can help, as Luv Gov's rail position enabled him to save ground and be on the better part of the track when Big Flirt tried to make a move if you watch the replay.

sdjcom · #59 05-05-2009, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gales0678

well what can you attribute it to? surely it has to be something? it just can't be one of those unexplained events

jet fuel in the feed

Antitrust32 · #60 05-05-2009, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdjcom

jet fuel in the feed

well the trainer said he was getting equine massages the week before so maybe he was just tense in his other races? or no?