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#1
05-15-2009, 11:21 PM
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5/16: Pimlico (Preakness Day)
Black-Eyed Susan Day left punters with black eyes as any attempt to make real money was quashed by a parade of short-priced winners. You know it's a short arm kind of day when you catch two P4's and LOSE $50 on them... No matter. The prequel should have left everyone in good shape for what has potential to be a much better chance to mix in long prices with the obvious Saturday. Hope everyone did well and enjoys what may be one of those special kinds of days Saturday...
HI HO, PIMLICO POST-SCRATCHES 1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (DD) Most Likely: #8 Malibu Joe 2-1 3rd Best Value: #2 Storms Past 5-1 4th Next Best: #4 Wild Repent 7-2 5th Super Add: #Ijada's Run 6-1 2nd 2nd: 17th Allaire DuPont (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1a Skylighter 1-1 WON Best Value: #6 All Smiles 6-1 3rd 3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Hot Bullet 6-1 4th Most Likely: #5 Stonestreet Star 9-5 7th Next Best: #2 Pocket Patch 8-1 2nd Super Add: #1 Y'er Man 20-1 5th 4th: 22nd Wm. Schaefer (Gr. II), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Ea 3-1 2nd-DH Best Value: #7 No Advantage 12-1 WON Next Best: #6 Ready Set 5-2 5th Super Add: #2 Real Merchant 4-1 2nd-DH 5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD) Most Likely: #7 Habitual 5-2 5th Best Value: #1 Motown Shuffle 20-1 WON Next Best: #10 Cold Orient 6-1 10th Super Add: #9 Robey's Choice 15-1 7th 6th: 2nd Deputed Testimony (R), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 Norjac 5-2 3rd Best Value: #5 Terrific Tom 15-1 7th Next Best: #11 Sumacha'hot 2-1 WON Super Add: #4 Thunder Charm 10-1 8th 7th: 58th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Dynaforce 4-5 5th Best Value: #3 Shytoe Lafeet 10-1 7th Next Best: #6 Tejida 5-1 3rd Super Add: #2 All is Vanity 9-2 2nd 8th: 34th Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. II), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD) Best Value: #3 Not for Silver 8-1 2nd Most Likely: #2 Everyday Heroes 6-1 WON Next Best: #1 Taqarub 5-2 Super Add: #7 Nuclear Wayne 4-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: 5: 1-7-10 6: 3-5 7: 3-8 8: 1-2-3-6-7-9 3x2x2x6 = $72 9th: 44th Woodlawn, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, DD) Best Value: #7 Code of Honour 8-1 8th Most Likely: #8 Affirmatif 3-5 WON Next Best: #1 Heros Image 12-1 3rd Super Add: #9 Dakota Dunes 12-1 5th 10th: 23rd Maryland Sprint H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #8 Ravalo 3-1 WON Next Best: #5 Ah Day 5-2 6th Best Value: #6 Torpedo Run 12-1 7th Super Add: #7 Celtic Innis 10-1 3rd 11th: 108th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #1e Frankel/Attfield entry 5-2 9th (#1 Proudinsky SCR'D) Best Value: #2 Monba 10-1 5th Next Best: #8 Strike a Deal 5-1 6th Super Add: #12 Lauro 8-1 4th 12th: 134th Preakness (Gr. I), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super High 5) Most Likely: #13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5 WON Best Value: #3 Musket Man 8-1 3rd Next Best: #2 Mine That Bird 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #9 Pioneerof the Nile 5-1 11th High 5 Play: #7 Papa Clem 12-1 7th $1 Trifecta (13-2-3) Paid $108.10 $1 Exacta (13-2) Paid $19.60 <$75 P4 Play: 9: 1-7-8 10: 5-6-7-8 11: 1-2-3-4-8-12 12: 13 3x4x6x1 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (4,5,8/1,8/3,9/13) Paid $65.10 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-16-2009 at 06:37 PM. 
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#2
05-15-2009, 11:40 PM
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#3
05-15-2009, 11:50 PM
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G/L!! Going to be a fun day...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
05-16-2009, 12:17 AM
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you Last edited by Kasept : 05-16-2009 at 06:42 AM.
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#7
05-16-2009, 07:03 AM
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The horse I'd love to boost into this is Celtic Innis, who is one my absolute favorite geldings. The winningest son ($510k) of the great Yarrow Brae... As for the Woodlawn, as I said on ATR last night, this is one of the more interesting betting affairs on the card. Don't know if my logic was faulty, but if Affirmatif was anything other than ordinary, why run him in a $50k listed stake? In that 2nd race at KEE he was downright embarassing, and it turns out that field he blasted at Gulfstream was perhaps the worst group of MSW turf runners of the meet. Only Final Count came back to win with a decent figure (87 at KEE 4/19). Oree won on the KEE main for Arnold with a scintillating 78 Beyer. The rest are, in the words of Serling, bums. Affirmatif can win I suppose, but there's three pace-interested parties in that race. Good luck to him...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
05-16-2009, 08:01 AM
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There's a few of those to worry about... Sea Chanter another. We'll know soon. Quote:
But historically, the most successful Derby runners perform positively at Pimlico for the most part. Musket Man, Papa Clem and Pioneer ALL seem to be displaying plus signals going into the race today. Haskin thinks Pioneer has GAINED weight since Derby, usually a very good sign on the short turnaround... Musket Man was totally on edge in his Monmouth work... Mine That Bird is full of energy and is more animated than Woolley has ever seen him: a sign that a horse is at a fitness peak... Certainly Friesan Fire was worse than could possibly be believed 2 weeks ago and can only run better today. He reportedly finished up the work this week with much more energy than the pre-race Churchill drill: Something Jones acknowledged on ATR this week... I think very little of General Quarters, and especially McCarthy, and freely admit I am letting my distaste colour my judgement on his prospects.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-16-2009 at 08:23 AM.
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#11
05-16-2009, 08:04 AM
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Is there something your not telling us? I hav'nt heard anything "bad" about this guy.. Do tell.... I thought this was a "feel good " story.
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#12
05-16-2009, 08:16 AM
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Here's Haskin's appreciation of Miller: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...llers-time-too And here's the post-Sam Davis article just so McCarthy remembers what he said then... http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/ne...bles-sam-davis General Quarters has now bankrolled $167,735 from a record of 9-2-3-1. He made a winning debut last May at Churchill Downs for a $20,000 tag and was promptly claimed by McCarthy. A distant sixth in the Bashford Manor S. (G3) next time out, he toiled in allowance company last fall and only came around after McCarthy sent him to Miller at Tampa. In his two starts for his new trainer, he finished second to Top Seed in the Inaugural S. and to Musket Man in the Pasco S. "I'm just real proud of him," Miller said. "He proved a lot today. Mr. McCarthy got him in Kentucky; I was stabled next to him in Kentucky, and that's how we met. He sent the horse down here to me, and he just loves it here. He loves the track; this is the best place to be in the winter time. The track surface, the people, the atmosphere... the horse just loves it. And that's all we're trying to do -- keep him happy. He seems to be on the improve." "I'm the groom," McCarthy said. "I'm out here every day, and we (Miller and McCarthy) work as a team. I sent General Quarters down to Mark, and we correspond, and when I got down here, I just started rubbing him. "He's the best groom I've got," Miller interjected.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#13
05-16-2009, 08:33 AM
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After a poor choice in the fifth race yesterday I find the fifth today an interesting race. In a field dominated by closers the #3 Our Big Wally stretches out from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles from the 3 hole.This is the only horse in the trainers barn and over 5 years she has a respectable record although her turf stats leave a lot to be desired.
Oscar Mancilla will try to take this one wire to wire in his only mount of the day.I'm not familiar with the breeding stats concerning this horses stamina but find it interesting to see Turn To Reason as the broodmare sire.His blood used to show up in Maryland breds on a daily basis 30 years ago and I can't remember the last time I've seen his name. Good luck to everyone today !
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#14
05-16-2009, 08:48 AM
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Here's how I see it.....
RACHEL ALEXANDRA (#13) Borel / Asmussen 9-5 The super three year old filly turned heads with a 20 plus length victory in the Kentucky Oaks, now she races for new connections and takes on the boys, draws almost impossible post…..but, won with devastating ease in her last start without being asked, gotta go with her in this spot spite her odds. MUSKET MAN (#3) Coa / Ryan 10-1 The one I feared the most in the Derby and did not use, ran his usual good race parked wide in the stretch drive while forced out, gotta think he’ll fire his best shot again and at good odds. MINE THAT BIRD (#2) Smith / Woolley 9-2 Very hard to leave this impressive Kentucky Derby winner out of the top three, Got his track and excellent ride in the Derby, race sets up for him again…..would be no surprise to make it two in a row. TAKE THE POINTS (#11) Prado / Pletcher 30-1 Decided to skip the Derby by his connections after two good efforts on the Santa Anita “pro-ride” surface, looks to be forwardly placed in the running of this race, a longshot that may be overlooked. FRIESAN FIRE (#5) Saez / Jones 10-1 Didn’t fire at all as the lukewarm favorite in the Derby with horrible trip , could be a “throw out” under the circumstances he endured, maybe has a Louis Quartorze like turn around effort in his cards.
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"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/
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#15
05-16-2009, 08:48 AM
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FYI West Coast Flyer is cross entered tomorrow at Belmont, where he's 6/5 on the ML. Let's see where they end up. This is a pretty salty race for a $100k G3. The good Jersey bred Forgetaboutit Sal is also by the studly Yarrow Brae.
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#17
05-16-2009, 09:03 AM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#20
05-16-2009, 09:22 AM
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PIMLICO CHANGES
Track: Fast Turf: On the Turf Forecast: Overcast ______________________________________ RACE 1 @ 10:15 Scratch #1 Smokin Heart #7 Cash N Wink _______________________________________ RACE 2 @ 10:44 Scratch #5 Striking Tomisue _______________________________________ RACE 3 @ 11:13 Scratch #4 Winter Walk _______________________________________ RACE 4 @ 11:48 No Changes _______________________________________ RACE 5 @ 12:28 Scratch #5 Foxs Uptown Boy #11 Chancellery #13 Ovechkin _______________________________________ RACE 6 @ 1:07 Scratch #2 Take Down Two _______________________________________ RACE 7 @ 1:55 Scratch #5 Quiet Meadow _______________________________________ RACE 8 @ 2:35 No Changes _______________________________________ RACE 9 @ 3:44 Scratch #4 Beacon Hill Road _______________________________________ RACE 10 @ 4:30 Scratch #1 West Coast Flier _______________________________________ RACE 11 @ 5:13 Scratch #9 Brickell _______________________________________ RACE 12 @ 6:15 No Changes _______________________________________ RACE 13 @ 7:15 Scratch #4 Louiegoboldly
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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