The Derby

[my miss storm cat]

Rooting only, and for 4 ... Crowded House (even though he disappointed me last time), Sea the Stars, Black Bear Island and Rip.

(Oh and good luck to 9YO Desert Lord, who I thought had retired, in the race before...)

Don't think AOB has enough runners here but what do I know...

15:45
13 Run Investec Derby (group 1)
Class 1, £1250000.00 added, 3yo only, £709625.00 penalty 1m 4f 10y
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Form Horse Trainer Age Wgt Jockey
1(1) 14-1 Age Of Aquarius (IRE) A P O'Brien 3 9 0 P J Smullen
2(3) 21-31 Black Bear Island (IRE) A P O'Brien 3 9 0 R L Moore
3(12) 0121-8 Crowded House B J Meehan 3 9 0 J P Spencer
4(5) 4-113 Debussy (IRE) J H M Gosden 3 9 0 J Fortune
5(10) 11-11 Fame And Glory A P O'Brien 3 9 0 J A Heffernan
6(6) 312-3 Gan Amhras (IRE) J S Bolger 3 9 0 K J Manning
7(7) 3541-41 Golden Sword A P O'Brien 3 9 0 C O'Donoghue
8(8) 211-5 Kite Wood (IRE) Saeed Suroor 3 9 0 L Dettori
9(2) 2130-2 Masterofthehorse (IRE) A P O'Brien 3 9 0 R Hughes
10(11) 21-2 Montaff M R Channon 3 9 0 R Hills
11(9) 117-4 Rip Van Winkle (IRE) A P O'Brien 3 9 0 J Murtagh
12(4) 411-1 Sea The Stars (IRE) J M Oxx 3 9 0 M J Kinane
13(13) 21 South Easter (IRE) W J Haggas 3 9 0 N Callan


Betting Forecast: 11/4 Sea The Stars (IRE), 7/2 Fame And Glory, 4/1 Rip Van Winkle (IRE), 7/1 Black Bear Island (IRE), Gan Amhras (IRE), 12/1 Masterofthehorse (IRE), 20/1 Age Of Aquarius (IRE), Crowded House, Kite Wood (IRE), 25/1 Golden Sword, 33/1 South Easter (IRE), 50/1 Montaff, Debussy (IRE)


FORMWATCH
AGE OF AQUARIUS (IRE) 8-11fav (8-12) Soon led, ridden when headed 2f out, hard ridden to lead close home, won at Lingfield 1m 3f 3yo Grp 3 (1) gf in May beating Montaff (8-12) by nk, 5 ran.BLACK BEAR ISLAND (IRE) 12-1 (9-0) Held up, headway 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to lead post, won at York 1m 2f stks (1) gd in May beating Freemantle (9-0) by hd, 10 ran.CROWDED HOUSE 2-1fav (9-0) Held up towards rear, headway on inner over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong, 8th of 10, 4 1/2l behind Black Bear Island (9-0) at York 1m 2f stks (1) gd in May.DEBUSSY (IRE) 11-4 (8-12) Mid-division, raced keenly, headway 2f out, soon chasing leading pair, hung left inside final furlong, no impression towards finish, 3rd of 8, 3 1/2l behind Golden Sword (8-12) at Chester 1m 4f 3yo Grp 3 (1) gf in May.FAME AND GLORY 4-7fav (9-4) Raced in moderate 5th, 4th and closed straight, challenged and led over 1f out, quickly clear, swished tail under pressure, stayed on well, impressive, won at Leopardstown 1m 2f 3yo hdl Grd 2 gd in May beating Mourayan (9-1) by 5l, 6 ran.GAN AMHRAS (IRE) 15-2 (9-0) Chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, slightly outpaced over 1f out, carried right inside final furlong, kept on, 3rd of 15, 2 1/4l behind Sea The Stars (9-0) at Newmarket 1m Grp 1 3yo (1) gf in May.GOLDEN SWORD 25-1 (8-12) Made all, pushed along over 3f out, ridden about 4 lengths clear 2f out, driven out, won at Chester 1m 4f 3yo Grp 3 (1) gf in May beating Masterofthehorse (8-12) by 2l, 8 ran.KITE WOOD (IRE) 9-2 (9-0) Led 1f, tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, one pace, 5th of 10, 2l behind Black Bear Island (9-0) at York 1m 2f stks (1) gd in May.MASTEROFTHEHORSE (IRE) 13-8fav (8-12) Held up in last well off the pace, headway on outside 2f out, soon ridden, kept on to chase winner inside final furlong, too much to do, 2nd of 8, 2l behind Golden Sword (8-12) at Chester 1m 4f 3yo Grp 3 (1) gf in May.MONTAFF 16-1 (8-12) Tracked winner, effort over 2f out, led soon after, ridden when headed close home, 2nd of 5, nk behind Age Of Aquarius (8-12) at Lingfield 1m 3f 3yo Grp 3 (1) gf in May.RIP VAN WINKLE (IRE) 9-2 (9-0) Held up mid-division, pushed along over 2f out, soon switching right looking for gaps, kept on well final furlong, running on towards finish, 4th of 15, 2 1/2l behind Sea The Stars (9-0) at Newmarket 1m Grp 1 3yo (1) gf in May.SEA THE STARS (IRE) 8-1 (9-0) Soon tracking leaders, pushed along inside final 2f, ridden over 1f out, edged right and led inside final furlong, ran on well, won at Newmarket 1m Grp 1 3yo (1) gf in May beating Delegator (9-0) by 1 1/2l, 15 ran.SOUTH EASTER (IRE) 6-1 (8-12) Held up behind leaders, ridden along over 2f out, driven and ran on to lead well inside final furlong, held on gainly, won at Chester 1m 2f 3yo Grp 3 (1) gf in May beating Gitano Hernando (8-12) by hd, 7 ran.

[chucklestheclown]

I understand very little of this but the one time I saw Rip Van Winkle he impressed me. The odds intrigue me, I've never noticed an 11/4 ML before.

[NoChanceToDance]

Gan Amhras.

If he doesn't hit the board I'm going to be very very depressed, very very poor and will probably fall out of love with racing for a few months.

He has everything you need to win a Derby. He is bred to win a derby and stay this trip, but he's showed the required speed to win a Derby by finishing third in the Guineas. He's a small, and will handle Epsom well. His trainer is a master and knows exactly what it takes to win this race, and this has been the plan all winter and through the spring, so we can be assured he's 110% for tomorrow.

If he doesn't at least hit the board, I will be stunned.

[brockguy]

I will be shocked if the winner isn't sea the stars or gan amhras! Aidan doesn't really know which of his 6 is the best so you'd have to come to the conclusion that he has no superstars. For the record, I think fame and glory will be his best placed horse in 3rd. I'm a big fan of rip van winkle but I just can't see him getting 12f. I think sea the stars and gan amhras both will and it's just a case of who gets the luck in running on the day. Bolger sounded extremely confident today and oxx who is normally very reserved has been quite positive. That will do for me. Last year, I was on a nightmare run of form when I bet heavily on casual conquest and new approach to win the derby and that turned my season. I need the same 2 happen 2m!!

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

I will be shocked if the winner isn't sea the stars or gan amhras! Aidan doesn't really know which of his 6 is the best so you'd have to come to the conclusion that he has no superstars. For the record, I think fame and glory will be his best placed horse in 3rd. I'm a big fan of rip van winkle but I just can't see him getting 12f. I think sea the stars and gan amhras both will and it's just a case of who gets the luck in running on the day. Bolger sounded extremely confident today and oxx who is normally very reserved has been quite positive. That will do for me. Last year, I was on a nightmare run of form when I bet heavily on casual conquest and new approach to win the derby and that turned my season. I need the same 2 happen 2m!!

I think Black Bear Island will be the best of his six, Brock. I just don't like the horses Fame and Glory has been beating, did you happen to see Hail Caeser run at Navan this evening? He won the two races well, and the second one with a penalty, but all he proved was that he was far better than the same bunch of trees yet again.

I agree though, I'll be shocked if the winner isn't between Sea The Stars and Gan Amhras.

[_ed_]

Yeah, I agree - Sea The Stars or Gan Amhras.

I'd quite like it to be Sea The Stars. It's been a while since a horse has won both the Guineas and the Derby, and it would be nice to see it happen.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

I agree though, I'll be shocked if the winner isn't between Sea The Stars and Gan Amhras.

Respectfully, I hope you're in for a big shock and that Crowded House is back to his best.

Still can't narrow down my 4 but hey... hope this guy wins.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Yeah, I agree - Sea The Stars or Gan Amhras.

I'd quite like it to be Sea The Stars. It's been a while since a horse has won both the Guineas and the Derby, and it would be nice to see it happen.

The Tsui family (HK racing... applause! ) owns him, correct?

[_ed_]

I think so, yes.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Respectfully, I hope you're in for a big shock and that Crowded House is back to his best.

Still can't narrow down my 4 but hey... hope this guy wins.

Crowded House won't get within two London Buses of winning the Derby.

[brockguy]

I have a feeling we could see a superstar today. I was adament that we had a brilliant set of 2yo last year and its looking like that so far this year..

[brockguy]

God, I needed that, great job by Mikey Joe, beating the Ballydoyle contingent who all finished together.. Some horse..

[NoChanceToDance]

He is an absolute superstar, probably the best horse I've seen.

Gutted about Gan Amhras, he didn't look like he handled the track one bit.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Gutted about Gan Amhras, he didn't look like he handled the track one bit.

Me too. he was beaten by halfway.. tough to know if he really saw the 12f out.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

Me too. he was beaten by halfway.. tough to know if he really saw the 12f out.

He was beaten before stamina came into play though. He got a good position early, but dropped back and never looked happy. Quite clearly he hasn't run his race, but it's the risk you take at Epsom.

Sea The Stars is just brilliant, only word to describe him.

[brockguy]

MMSC, does Tsui own any top class horses over in HK?

[_ed_]

The Derby went through a real slump a few years ago, with none of Kris Kin, North Light, Motivator and Sir Percy doing much (if anything) after winning it. It looked like the Derby was quickly losing relevance.

Have the last two years, in which it's been won by two outstanding horses among the best 3yos of their year, been a coincidence? Or are things turning around for the Derby?

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by _ed_

The Derby went through a real slump a few years ago, with none of Kris Kin, North Light, Motivator and Sir Percy doing much (if anything) after winning it. It looked like the Derby was quickly losing relevance.

Have the last two years, in which it's been won by two outstanding horses among the best 3yos of their year, been a coincidence? Or are things turning around for the Derby?

Ed,
good question. Its tough to know really, but I think its just swings and roundabouts. Admittedly, there were some below average winners recently, but if you look at some of the horses behind those Derby winners, there was some very good horses, Dylan Thomas and Alamshar to name 2. It was fantastic to get a Guineas winner to win the Derby because I believe that many of the really good milers can stay 12f. Hopefully, it will encourage more to do so. I love seeing horses like that..