7/25: BEL (P4); DMR (P6); CBY (Crown)

Kasept · #1 07-25-2009, 06:58 AM

Glaring omission of Frank Martin Flying Zee winner in Belmont nightcap Friday cost me a shockingly overlaid $786.50 P4 payoff. Patron Saint didn't look any better than several when capping initially, but not getting a chance to ammend the plays post-scratches/changes hurt, as Sebastian Morales had been booted in favor of Ramon Dominguez... a significant upgrade. Still not sure why the sequence, with $7.90, $7.10, $10.80 and $4.40 had such inflated will pays. Good news on the day were back to back exotics sweeps mid-card including the $200 tri and $380 super in the 7th.

Later at Del Mar, took deflating beat at the wire on 15-1 single Ale's Pride to squash P6 C/O try and sizeable win bet. Discussed at length with National Turf's Bob Selvin on "At the Races" Friday, Ale's Pride worked a little too hard to make the lead to have enough in the defining stages. This was a heartbreaker with a $33.20 win price hinged on the outcome. Caught three winners in the sequence after that, but no one negotiated the sextet successfully and a $382,000 carry is available today. Expect a $2,000.000 pot for the good skien today.

Hope you did OK Friday and are ready for a fun Saturday that includes Dee Tee running Aldebutante and Kickin N Screamin at Arlington, the Belmont P4, Del Mar C/O and Claiming Crown at Canterbury!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Sydney Road 8-1 WON
Next Best: #11 New Yawker 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Prince Dubai 20-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Mr. Petersson 12-1 6th

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Stormy Success 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #7 Extra Zip 8-5 WON
Next Best: #9 Gold Pageantry 6-1 9th
Super Add: #2 SCR

9th: 93rd Copaching Club American Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Wynning Ride 8-1 3rd
Most Likely: #1 Livin Lovin 3-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Funny Moon 5-2 WON
Super Add: #3 Don't Forget Gil 15-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Fair Catch 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Winloc's Big D 3-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Donquityerdayjob 8-1 5th
Super Add: #8 New York Bobby 8-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 10-11
8: 1-7
9: ALL 3
10: 1-2

2x2x8x2 = $64

DEL MAR

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Terrific and challenging ALW to start P6 with many impossible to toss..

Most Likely: #4 Great Siege 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Trumpet Player Jay 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Dehere Again 7-2 7th
Super Add: #8 Fiery Trippi 12-1 10th

6th: 24th Fleet Treat (R), Cal-bred 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 ULTRA BLEND 7-2
Best Value: #7 Pretty Unusual 10-1
Next Best: #3 Century Park 5-1
Super Add: #8 Suacey Evening 5-2

7th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Brutally difficult set of nicely-bred and well-meant looking babies..

Most Likely: #10 Tiny Woods 5-1
Best Value: #2 Majestic Peak 8-1
Next Best: #8 Sidney's Candy 8-1
Super Add: #11 Wings of Sound 12-1

8th: 36th Eddie Read (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Monterey Jazz 2-1
Best Value: #7 Richard's Kid 20-1
Next Best: #4 Thorn Song 8-1
Super Add: #3 Global Hunter 12-1

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bet On Victor 3-1
Best Value: #1 Spirit of Cochise 12-1
Next Best: #7 Position A 6-1
Super Add: #6 Best Dressed 12-1

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #10 Quality Plus 2-1
Best Value: #6 Class Dismissed 12-1
Next Best: #5 Big Mahogany 7-2
Exotics Use: #14 (AE) Barney Bass 5-1
Super Add: #4 Bonkersforbinkers 10-1

$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-4-7-8-10
6: 6
7: 2-8-10-11
8: 1
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 10

6x1x4x1x4x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-7-8-10-11
8: 1
9: 1-2-6-7
10: 5-6-10

6x1x4x3 = $72

CANTERBURY

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CC Iron Horse, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Calm and Collected 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Bright Hall 4-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Mr. Meso 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Mr. Grumpy Stripes 10-1 5th

4th: CC Tiara, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3)

Most Likely: #1 Love to Tell 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Mizzcan'tbewrong 7-2 WON
Next Best: #6 R Vicarious Girl 3-1 4th

5th: CC Rapid Transit, 3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Grand Traverse 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Pete's Pride 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Max Ahead 5-2 5th
Super Add: #6 All Joking Aside 5-1 4th

6th: CC Express, 3+, 6f (P3, Super)

#8 Ready's Rocket a major reaction candidate.. Cover in P4 but bet against within race..

Most Likely: #9 Chasing the Prize 7-2 WON
Best Value: #10 Mojito Man 10-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Norjac 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Jacob's Run 12-1 6th

7th: CC Glass Slipper, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Met a Miner 3-1 9th
Best Value: #3 Gatorize 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Miranda Diane 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Thunder and Belle 6-1 2nd

8th: CC Emerald, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #3 Hard Top 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #6 Gran Estreno 4-1 WON
Next Best: #7 T Harry 12-1
Super Add: #12 Spicy Dubai 12-1

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-2-4
6: 2-8-9-10
7: 3-4-7
8: 3-6-7-12

3x4x3x4 - 144 x .50 = $72

9th: CC Jewel, 3+, 9f (DD, P3)

Small field but a super competitive race..

Most Likely: #2 Furthest Land 5-2
Best Value: #3 Repenting 8-1
Next Best: #6 Glamour Guy 7-2

10th: Lady Canterbury, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Euphony 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Adhsilver 6-1
Next Best: #4 Happiness Is 7-2 WON
Super Add: #7 Lady Carlock 4-1 3rd

Good luck!
Steve

Arletta · #2 07-25-2009, 07:34 AM

Also don't forget Tony Black in Philly's last race today.

He rides Izzy's Halo and has a great shot at winning tonight.

Left11 · #3 07-25-2009, 08:26 AM

Not sure if this is the case in the Belmont late Pick 4 yesterday but with the scratch of the #2 in the 8th after the P4 had started did all those P4 tickets including the #2 move to the post time favorite #5 in the 8th (which didn't win)? Is this why the prices seemed inflated for a winning Pick 4 ticket?

golfer · #4 07-25-2009, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left11

Not sure if this is the case in the Belmont late Pick 4 yesterday but with the scratch of the #2 in the 8th after the P4 had started did all those P4 tickets including the #2 move to the post time favorite #5 in the 8th (which didn't win)? Is this why the prices seemed inflated for a winning Pick 4 ticket?

I'm sure a ton of money was on the Bush entry, both halves of which stood out in that race. I sure hope he had a good reason for scratching Boxitup so late, causing Ambidaxtrous to run for purse only, because it really screwed up the multi-race wagering.

fantini33 · #5 07-25-2009, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Left11

Not sure if this is the case in the Belmont late Pick 4 yesterday but with the scratch of the #2 in the 8th after the P4 had started did all those P4 tickets including the #2 move to the post time favorite #5 in the 8th (which didn't win)? Is this why the prices seemed inflated for a winning Pick 4 ticket?

Exactly why.

juice1134 · #6 07-25-2009, 11:33 AM

in the 8th race at del mar..... i think monterey jazz is the 1 horse not the 2

#7 07-25-2009, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by juice1134

in the 8th race at del mar..... i think monterey jazz is the 1 horse not the 2

you are correct juice, hope steve catches it.

jms62 · #8 07-25-2009, 05:36 PM

Nice Tri Hit Steve in the CCA

Kasept · #9 07-25-2009, 05:50 PM

j,

Thx! Felt the board was going to be screwy in there. Anyone that listened to Dasilva and I talk about the Oaks yesterday should have blown that triple apart.

And thanks juice for the heads up on MontJazz.

Just back from Saratoga working on the Barbecue. Hope everyone is doing well...