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#1
10-29-2009, 07:14 PM
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Aiden O'Brien
He's been a little hard luck here of late.
He's winless with his last 25 starters in North America. He's also 3-for-65 with a microscopic $0.47 ROI with all starters in North America since 2003. He's had a couple of recent Breeders Cup fatalities among his horses as well. Landseer and George Washington...I believe both died on the track BC day. But I think I made a big mistake last year in calling him "the one - and only one - of the European trainer I want no part of" But the closer I've looked at him... the more I think a good many of his horses haven't run all that terrible. In his training career, O'Brien is just 1-for-26 in North America with horses who have won their previous start. The lone winner was Johannesburg, who needed 1:42.27 to win the Juvenile .. compare that with the 1:41.49 it took Tempera to win the Juv Fillies. Looking at all of O'Brien's North American winners besides Johannesburg ... you see a collection of horses who didn't exactly bring their sharpest Euro form in. * Ciro - 3rd by 10.5 lengths and 6th by 8.5 in his two prior Euro starts. * Ballingarry- four consecutive defeats in Europe before romping in the Canadian International. * Landseer - was beaten 3 times in a row in Europe - including a 13th place finish in his prior start before winning the Shadwell Mile. * High Chapparall - 3rd at 2/1 and 3rd at 5/2 in the Arc both times before winning the BC Turf once and dead-heating the other time. * Powerscourt - 3 defeats in a row, including one as a 3/5 favorite in Germany prior to crossing the line first in the Arl Million but getting DQ'd. He had 7 foreign defeats in a row before shipping in and easily winning the Arlington Million by 3 at 5/1 odds the time he wasn't DQ'd. * Aussie Rules - finished 4th place or worse in four straight races in Europe before taking the Shadwell Mile at 5/1 odds. I think we have a solid book on like 700 or 800 trainers here, some of them at tracks we rarely see when we bet. But you have very little data to go off of with Euro trainer... I'd say O'Brien horses seem to be most dangerous when they bring in less than overwhelming Euro form. When they bring in overwhelming Euro form - or go 2nd time NA .. they tend to underperform expectations. 
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#2
10-29-2009, 07:22 PM
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Overrated
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#4
10-29-2009, 07:29 PM
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#6
10-29-2009, 07:33 PM
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#7
10-29-2009, 09:47 PM
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#11
10-29-2009, 11:27 PM
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I have now lived in two- and only two other states.
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#15
10-29-2009, 11:52 PM
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#16
10-30-2009, 12:08 AM
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I've lived in NY, NJ, PA, and now KY, my wife has lived in MA, CA, VA, FL, and KY. I guess we've got the Commonwealths covered!
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#19
10-30-2009, 02:35 PM
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Specifically with his "in form" horses, O'Brien often takes them out of their comfort zone (not even factoring in the trans-Atlantic shipping) by running them in the BC Classic or Juvenile. Those entries are for the most part are "hit or miss" with no real sort of insight beforehand. For every one Johannesburg or Giant's Causeway (who didn't win) there has to be a myriad of Hawk Wing's and George Washington's. If you eliminate his dirt starters, I presume his NA stats look a little better. Certainly most of his turf performers have done fine (if not win) the last couple of BCs (eg Westphalia, Heart Shaped, Excellent Art, Achill Island). Another confounder to his stats here would be the private purchases. Black Bear Island, Ciro, Plan, US Ranger, Ballingarry, all came over to run one time for him, basically with the deals already finalized and/or designs on leaving in this country with other trainers.
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#20
10-30-2009, 07:29 PM
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O'Brien wins gobs of big races in Ireland and Britain; this year, he has the best (St Nicholas Abbey) and several of the second best 2yos over there. If you take out Sea the Stars, he had the 3 or 4 best 3yos running this last year. His lack of serious success with his US raiders indicates that he has not yet completely worked out (as his countryman Dermot Weld apparently has) which horses are likely to adapt well to US racing conditions. Inside-the-main-track courses are like a bull-ring to horses used to straight miles or 1-turn 12f courses and only some of them can run their best race on such tight courses, at least in their first try.
PS. The only Euro racecourse that is remotely similar to a US course is Chester, a tight left-handed oval which seems to have straights of no longer than a furlong in length. A 'handy' position on the rail in the vanguard is the key to success at Chester.
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