Jockey Bet

philcski · #1 11-05-2009, 02:31 PM

As I stated already today, I love Steve Crist, but he just ruined the price on my best bet of the weekend.
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

The field at the 8-1ML would be an absolute STEAL and I was planning on betting it hard. For example, the ML favorite Garrett Gomez has Gayego in the Sprint at 5/2 ML (who has a big shot obviously.) However, the field has Zensational, Fatal Bullet, and Cost of Freedom. I would take 1/2 on that proposition and I'm getting 8-1!!!!

hockey2315 · #2 11-05-2009, 02:35 PM

I agree that the field is the way to go, but I'm not sure how hard it'll get bet. People are going to want to cheer for their favorite jockey - it's the type of thing where betting the field kind of takes the novelty out of it. 6-1+ on the field seems like a ton of value, but beware of a tiny pool size.

Travis Stone · #3 11-05-2009, 02:37 PM

The wager has been under-promoted and under-publicized.

Gander · #4 11-05-2009, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated already today, I love Steve Crist, but he just ruined the price on my best bet of the weekend.
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

The field at the 8-1ML would be an absolute STEAL and I was planning on betting it hard. For example, the ML favorite Garrett Gomez has Gayego in the Sprint at 5/2 ML (who has a big shot obviously.) However, the field has Zensational, Fatal Bullet, and Cost of Freedom. I would take 1/2 on that proposition and I'm getting 8-1!!!!

You think people will really bet something just because Steven Crist said its the way to go? Enough people to make a dent in the pools? Especially something this trivial?

philcski · #5 11-05-2009, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

You think people will really bet something just because Steven Crist said its the way to go? Enough people to make a dent in the pools? Especially something this trivial?

Yes- because the pool size will struggle to reach 5 digits. If his comments add $2,000 to the field, let's say there was $10K in the pool before that and the field was exactly at the morning line 8-1 at the post (so $930 on the field), there's now $12K in the pool and the new price is 5/2. Make sense now?

Gander · #6 11-05-2009, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Yes- because the pool size will struggle to reach 5 digits. If his comments add $2,000 to the field, let's say there was $10K in the pool before that and the field was exactly at the morning line 8-1 at the post (so $930 on the field), there's now $12K in the pool and the new price is 5/2. Make sense now?

Yes, I get it... but dont forget you can't make this bet in NY and thats where most of his followers live and wager. I doubt very much people in NY will make the kind of effort needed to leave the state to make such a trivial bet when you have all the BC races to wager into. I still find it weird people would make a bet solely on one person's opinion. Totally takes all the fun of it away.

I didnt like this bet at first but its kind of a neat idea. If I were to play, I would definetely bet John Velasquez. Hes got all the Pletcher horses and many are very live, albeit they would be much better if this wasnt being run on fake dirt.

NavalOrange · #7 11-05-2009, 03:13 PM

Does NY include all OTB? Capital OTB website has a link to information on the bet.

Gander · #8 11-05-2009, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NavalOrange

Does NY include all OTB?

Yes.

philcski · #9 11-05-2009, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Yes, I get it... but dont forget you can't make this bet in NY and thats where most of his followers live and wager. I doubt very much people in NY will make the kind of effort needed to leave the state to make such a trivial bet when you have all the BC races to wager into. I still find it weird people would make a bet solely on one person's opinion. Totally takes all the fun of it away.

I didnt like this bet at first but its kind of a neat idea. If I were to play, I would definetely bet John Velasquez. Hes got all the Pletcher horses and many are very live, albeit they would be much better if this wasnt being run on fake dirt.

I didn't like it at first either until I thought about it for a while and did exactly what Crist did- laid out what each jockey's mounts are. You are correct about NY not having the bet (assuming the racing & wagering board didn't have time to approve it) but I think he's got followers everywhere, he's the most influential writer in the game.

Ex-New Yorkers live everywhere, by the way

Gander · #10 11-05-2009, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I didn't like it at first either until I thought about it for a while and did exactly what Crist did- laid out what each jockey's mounts are. You are correct about NY not having the bet (assuming the racing & wagering board didn't have time to approve it) but I think he's got followers everywhere, he's the most influential writer in the game.

Ex-New Yorkers live everywhere, by the way

Ya, hes a great writer and super nice guy. Met him a few times up here, once at a book signing at Borders and the other while I was out running and he was walking his dog.

I am surprised Ramon Dominguez doesnt have more mounts than he does. Hes riding 2 Ramsey horses, and another Ramsey horse is an AE. Then he has Gio Ponti. So that makes a total possible of 4, two of which look very live.

Not saying this just because I live here, but he's really an awesome jockey.

Gauchos0522 · #11 11-05-2009, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Ya, hes a great writer and super nice guy. Met him a few times up here, once at a book signing at Borders and the other while I was out running and he was walking his dog.

I am surprised Ramon Dominguez doesnt have more mounts than he does. Hes riding 2 Ramsey horses, and another Ramsey horse is an AE. Then he has Gio Ponti. So that makes a total possible of 4, two of which look very live.

Not saying this just because I live here, but he's really an awesome jockey.

Noticed that too and it's even more suprising considering the year he has had. I mean he's arguably the best in the country and has zero mounts on friday? Puzzling to say the least as you would think he would have been sought out much more by guys looking for riders these past couple weeks.

Sightseek · #12 11-05-2009, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

As I stated already today, I love Steve Crist, but he just ruined the price on my best bet of the weekend.
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

The field at the 8-1ML would be an absolute STEAL and I was planning on betting it hard. For example, the ML favorite Garrett Gomez has Gayego in the Sprint at 5/2 ML (who has a big shot obviously.) However, the field has Zensational, Fatal Bullet, and Cost of Freedom. I would take 1/2 on that proposition and I'm getting 8-1!!!!

So you go and start a thread to draw more attention to it?

Gander · #13 11-05-2009, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gauchos0522

Noticed that too and it's even more suprising considering the year he has had. I mean he's arguably the best in the country and has zero mounts on friday? Puzzling to say the least as you would think he would have been sought out much more by guys looking for riders these past couple weeks.

I think hes going to win with Cannonball and although I dont really love Gio Ponti in the Classic, hes one of the likeliest winners, no? Havent looked at either of those Kitten horses hes riding. I'd take Ramon over just about anybody, maybe with the lone exception being Gomez.

philcski · #14 11-05-2009, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

So you go and start a thread to draw more attention to it?

Gauchos0522 · #15 11-05-2009, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I think hes going to win with Cannonball and although I dont really love Gio Ponti in the Classic, hes one of the likeliest winners, no? Havent looked at either of those Kitten horses hes riding. I'd take Ramon over just about anybody, maybe with the lone exception being Gomez.

I'd agree with that. I mean the guy leads the country in earnings and has been top notch day in and day out in NY. Cannonball and Gio IMO both have big chances. Just found it weird that he couldn't have picked up some more live mounts or even mounts in general.

hockey2315 · #16 11-05-2009, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gauchos0522

I'd agree with that. I mean the guy leads the country in earnings and has been top notch day in and day out in NY. Cannonball and Gio IMO both have big chances. Just found it weird that he couldn't have picked up some more live mounts or even mounts in general.

He's an East Coast guy and that region isn't as well represented this year as most because of the surface.

It's not really that surprising. . . and most trainers aren't going to switch riders at this point if a certain jockey has gotten them to this point.

Gauchos0522 · #17 11-05-2009, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

He's an East Coast guy and that region isn't as well represented this year as most because of the surface.

It's not really that surprising. . . and most trainers aren't going to switch riders at this point if a certain jockey has gotten them to this point.

True. And I guess to go along with that he hasn't really pulled the best graded stakes mounts in NY this year with the exception of Gio Ponti and Fabulous Strike who isn't even running.

chucklestheclown · #18 11-05-2009, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

did exactly what Crist did- laid out what each jockey's mounts are.

I was always excited about this bet, but thought I was going to have to do later tonight what I now find Crist did for me. Thanks for the link and thank you Mr. Crist! And you philcski.

herkhorse · #19 11-06-2009, 07:54 AM

Is this an on track only bet,or do some ADW sites carry it?

Bigsmc · #20 11-06-2009, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Is this an on track only bet,or do some ADW sites carry it?

Youbet has a track on their list as BC H2H. It has three races. Race 1 is the jockey bet. Race 2 and 3 is the Distaff/Classic DD.