2/12-14: Derby Future Wager - Pool 1

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Going into today...


1 Aikenite Todd Pletcher 30 58
2 American Lion Eoin Harty 20 40
3 Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine 12 10
4 Concord Point Bob Baffert 30 99
5 Conveyance Bob Baffert 12 37
6 Dave in Dixie John Sadler 20 38
7 Drosselmeyer William Mott 20 25
8 Dryfly Lynn Whiting 20 56
9 Dublin D. Lukas 15 21
10 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher 20 25
11 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 12 33
12 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 8 6
13 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 50 99
14 Maximus Ruler Clark Hanna 50 90
15 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 15 39
16 Ron the Greek Thomas Amoss 30 35
17 Rule Todd Pletcher 12 31
18 Stay Put Steve Margolis 50 59
19 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 15 26
20 Tiz Chrome Bob Baffert 20 29
21 Uptowncharlybrown Alan Seewald 50 29
22 Vale of York (IRE) Saeed bin Suroor 30 30
23 William's Kitten Michael Maker 30 54
24 All Other Three Ye 5/2 6/5

The play is the 10, after he runs huge this upcoming weekend, then wins his final major prep he ends off going off at under 7-1, so 25-1 is a gift, he was over 40-1 yesterday.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Rule is at higher odds than Charly?

Ya figure that. Thought Rule's odds would drop

[Port Conway Lane]

Does anyone else believe that a $1 ex box using #24 with the horse of your choice makes more sense than a win wager?
Currently Rule is 24-1 to win the race outright without worrying who finishes second. He is 55-1 to outfinish every other horse on the current list even if he runs worse than second. He is 88-1 to win the race if no one on the current list runs second.
Thoughts?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Does anyone else believe that a $1 ex box using #24 with the horse of your choice makes more sense than a win wager?
Currently Rule is 24-1 to win the race outright without worrying who finishes second. He is 55-1 to outfinish every other horse on the current list even if he runs worse than second. He is 88-1 to win the race if no one on the current list runs second.
Thoughts?

It depends. What's you're goal? Do you want to bet Rule to win or do you want to bet Rule to W/P? Or do you think "All Others" is the only reasonable choice for the 2nd spot?

If you wanted to bet Rule to win, then you could have looked at all the exactas where Rule is the first horse. If you bet them proportionally in a way that you collect the same thing no matter which other horse comes in 2nd (including the "All Others" option), then you are emulating a bet in the win pool. You can compare the odds you get from the exactas to the odds you get in the win pool. For example, say you have $112 to bet on Rule to win. You could have bet $1 on the Rule/MakeMusicForMe exacta, $2 on the Rule/DaveInDixie, $24 on Rule/"All Others" and proportional amounts on every other Rule/ exacta. No matter which horse comes in 2nd, you'd collect the same amount ($2132). That's 18-1 on your $112 in bets. You'd be much better off with the 24-1 from a straight win bet in the win pool. So, if you were looking for the best way to bet on Rule to win, it was definitely in the win pool. If you had strong feelings about who would come in 2nd, such as "All Others", then, yeah, maybe Rule/All Others made sense.

But if you really liked Rule to win, then trying to add a particular 2nd place horse, even if it's "All Others", is asking for later aggravation, IMO.

--Dunbar

[DaTruth]

What will the "All other 3yos" with "All other 3yos" exacta pay?

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

What will the "All other 3yos" with "All other 3yos" exacta pay?

It doesn't. The horse with the best finish on the list completes the exacta.

[Kasept]

FINAL ODDS ($386k)

1 Aikenite Todd Pletcher 30 54
2 American Lion Eoin Harty 20 41
3 Buddy's Saint Bruce Levine 12 10
4 Concord Point Bob Baffert 30 99
5 Conveyance Bob Baffert 12 33
6 Dave in Dixie John Sadler 20 28
7 Drosselmeyer William Mott 20 20
8 Dryfly Lynn Whiting 20 46
9 Dublin D. Lukas 15 20
10 Eskendereya Todd Pletcher 20 22
11 Jackson Bend Nicholas Zito 12 27
12 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert 8 8
13 Make Music for Me Alexis Barba 50 99
14 Maximus Ruler Clark Hanna 50 76
15 Noble's Promise Kenneth McPeek 15 36
16 Ron the Greek Thomas Amoss 30 31
17 Rule Todd Pletcher 12 24
18 Stay Put Steve Margolis 50 49
19 Super Saver Todd Pletcher 15 20
20 Tiz Chrome Bob Baffert 20 37
21 Uptowncharlybrown Alan Seewald 50 34
22 Vale of York (IRE) Saeed bin Suroor 30 26
23 William's Kitten Michael Maker 30 54
24 All Other Three Ye 5/2 3/2

[dalakhani]

Who did everyone play?

I played 40 on Jackson Bend and I put 20 on Dryfly. I did a $2 exacta on jacksonbend and dryfly and i did jackson bend/drfly over field.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It depends. What's you're goal? Do you want to bet Rule to win or do you want to bet Rule to W/P? Or do you think "All Others" is the only reasonable choice for the 2nd spot?

If you wanted to bet Rule to win, then you could have looked at all the exactas where Rule is the first horse. If you bet them proportionally in a way that you collect the same thing no matter which other horse comes in 2nd (including the "All Others" option), then you are emulating a bet in the win pool. You can compare the odds you get from the exactas to the odds you get in the win pool. For example, say you have $112 to bet on Rule to win. You could have bet $1 on the Rule/MakeMusicForMe exacta, $2 on the Rule/DaveInDixie, $24 on Rule/"All Others" and proportional amounts on every other Rule/ exacta. No matter which horse comes in 2nd, you'd collect the same amount ($2132). That's 18-1 on your $112 in bets. You'd be much better off with the 24-1 from a straight win bet in the win pool. So, if you were looking for the best way to bet on Rule to win, it was definitely in the win pool. If you had strong feelings about who would come in 2nd, such as "All Others", then, yeah, maybe Rule/All Others made sense.

But if you really liked Rule to win, then trying to add a particular 2nd place horse, even if it's "All Others", is asking for later aggravation, IMO.

--Dunbar

I do like Rule and using him as an example my point is this:
If I make a win wager on him and he makes it to the gate he must be the best of 20 horses. I get 24-1 for that chance.
If I box him with all others in the exacta he will be running against only the horses on the list that make it to the gate. I get 55-1 if he can outperform those horses anywhere on the track. If he wins the race I must hope that any of the horses on the list do not run 2nd. For that chance I get 88-1.
(actually my payoff in the last two scenarios are $55 or $88 for a total $2 investment compared to $50 for a $2 investment if he wins the race.)
Last year only five horses from pool 1 made it to the gate. Pioneer Of The Nile was 13-1 to win the race in the futures but going into the race he only needed to finish better than four others,which he did and probably paid better for a $1 exacta than he would have if he had won the race.(I don't know what the futures exacta paid.)

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Just one exacta......Super Saver with the field (boxed) this is the least amount I've ever played in the 1st round. I don't think ANY of my past plays in this round, made it to the gate!

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I do like Rule and using him as an example my point is this:
If I make a win wager on him and he makes it to the gate he must be the best of 20 horses. I get 24-1 for that chance.
If I box him with all others in the exacta he will be running against only the horses on the list that make it to the gate. I get 55-1 if he can outperform those horses anywhere on the track. If he wins the race I must hope that any of the horses on the list do not run 2nd. For that chance I get 88-1.
(actually my payoff in the last two scenarios are $55 or $88 for a total $2 investment compared to $50 for a $2 investment if he wins the race.)
Last year only five horses from pool 1 made it to the gate. Pioneer Of The Nile was 13-1 to win the race in the futures but going into the race he only needed to finish better than four others,which he did and probably paid better for a $1 exacta than he would have if he had won the race.(I don't know what the futures exacta paid.)

Just a couple of comments...

Last year was unusual with just 5 horses from Pool 1 making it to the starting gate. The year before 12 horses made it. The average number since 2000 (I don't have info on the first year, 1999) is 8.6 horses from Pool 1 made it to the starting gate.

Also, I don't think they started the exactas until Pool 2 last year.

--Dunbar

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Just a couple of comments...

Last year was unusual with just 5 horses from Pool 1 making it to the starting gate. The year before 12 horses made it. The average number since 2000 (I don't have info on the first year, 1999) is 8.6 horses from Pool 1 made it to the starting gate.

Also, I don't think they started the exactas until Pool 2 last year.

--Dunbar

Just from an odds standpoint even if 10 horses make it to the gate this year that's 9 less horses he has to beat.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Just from an odds standpoint even if 10 horses make it to the gate this year that's 9 less horses he has to beat.

I agree. I just don't see an immediate way to weigh the extra odds you get with the chance your horse might win and you still not get paid. In the example I gave in my first response, you can do a direct comparison of odds. I don't see an immediate way to do that with what you're proposing.

--Dunbar

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree. I just don't see an immediate way to weigh the extra odds you get with the chance your horse might win and you still not get paid. In the example I gave in my first response, you can do a direct comparison of odds. I don't see an immediate way to do that with what you're proposing.

--Dunbar

I didn't think of weighing the odds of the case in which he wins but now that you mention it I would view it as follows:
He pays $50 if he wins the race and roughly $170 if all others finish 2nd on a $2 exacta.
The odds of all others winning the race is 3-2. If those odds are true then an equivalent value for a $2 exacta for all others to finish 2nd would be $75.
The bottom line that I see is that if you like a horse the chances to cash a ticket are better when putting him underneath all others in the exacta than betting him to win.

[StevenLD]

Just to be clear after two prior discussions on the air, here are my $10 and $6 Exacta probables for Pool #1.

#10 = ESKENDERAYA. . .#24 = ALL OTHERS, (a loaded group this year; that includes CARACORTADO; SIDNEY'S CANDY, LENTENOR, SETSUKO, BLIND LUCK, D'FUNNYBONE, DISCREETLY MINE; plus many others still in the game at this point). . .
#6 = DAVE IN DIXIE;
#7 = DROSSELMEYER;
#12 = LOOKIN AT LUCKY.

$10 units:
10-6 = $1,380.40 X 5 = $6902, (A very reasonable outcome, with extraordinary potential value.)
10-7 = $463.60 X 5 = $2318 (Not likely, but not impossible)
10-24= $162.60 X 5 = $813 (Very reasonable outcome)

24-6= $172.20 X 5 =$861 (Very reasonable outcome)
24-7 = $114.80 X 5 =$574 (Not impossible)
24-10 = $120.40X 5 = $602 (A reasonable outcome)

$6 saver units.
10-12 = $354.60 X 3 = $1063.80 (The most reasonable outcome of all at this point, with OK value)
24-12 =$51.20 X 3 = $153.60 (Very reasonable outcome, with modest 200+ % total return on $72 investment),
------------------------------------------------
Total cost for all eight exacta combinations = $72.

Win or lose, a very promising Futures Book investment

Last year: I bet #24 'All Others' for $400 and on race day, among several exotic plays, I bet $600 on Pioneerofthe Nile. . . .As you know #24 (Mine That Bird) won and paid for the Pioneerof the Nile win bet. . .'Bird' was a horse I could not have bet with your money in any win pool whatsoever.
----------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Bottom line after Saturday, Feb. 20 prep races:
The natural 10 furlong router ESKENDEREYA (who posted even fractions all the way through the nine furlongs Saturday and looked like a 2:01-type-1-1/4 mile horse), has all the talent he needs to win the Kentucky Derby.
But, Todd Pletcher must back off a touch while training this colt for the Florida Derby. He must not follow his historic pattern of winning prep races; he should study how Nafzger did it. TWICE. Pletcher must leave some room for improvement during the final few weeks.