A question for all of you planning to bet Sidney's Candy

[NTamm1215]

Hopefully we can get a little discussion going about individual Derby horses but can all of you who are planning to bet Sidney's Candy tell me if you think he's suddenly going to decide to rate. Or do you think he's going to be the speed of the speed?

I ask because since he's become the morning darling his price is steadily decreasing and I can't come up with any plausible scenario where he wins this race even with who's slated to run as of now.

NT

[the_fat_man]

This is an intriguing horse. He stumbled at the gate last out, yet never fought the jock early, and, basically, took the lead by default. Talamo neither asked nor restrained him. This indicates SC can basically do whatever you ask him to.

Then, on the turn, when the others are running at him (or trying to), he's basically sitting chilly, while ACCELERATING. Talamo then needlessly goes to the whip the 2nd of two successive accelerating qtrs, but the race was easily over at that point. So, it really wasn't a question of needing to put him under pressure because he was quitting or threatened.

This is a very dangerous horse. If he's able to rate, you know at some point he's going to try to break the race open. If nothing goes with him, he's home. Who really can run with this horse the 5th and 6th splits?

[Hoist Her Flag]

I personally think they are going to rate. It's only a gut feeling. But one I think Sadler and Talamo are confident in the horse. When that happens sometimes the get cute and take a horse out of his element. Even though he has had the lead in his last two, he doesn't shoot out of the gate, ala Line of David in his last three races. I don't know if this rating will work or not. I'm leaning no, because most horses are not that versatile. But any horse that can wire three in a row on Poly gets my attention. I think what he has done out west would merit strong consideration, if you could take out about three e and e/p types in the Derby.

[3kings]

I think it's possible he can rate too..........He never seems like he rushes to do anything or pulls too hard. He has just has been faster than everyone else so far. If he rates he has a descent shot but he will probably only be about 7 or 8-1.

[Thunder Gulch]

I don't think he's headstrong, but I don't know how he will react if others are kicking dirt in his face either. I wish I had a piece of that last future pool wager at 26-1, but I'm not enthusiastic about him at 8-1.

[Rudeboyelvis]

I think it was Steve Haskins that mentioned that even in the races where he goes to the lead, he closes with the same fractions as the closers - for instance he came home in 35 3/5ths in the SA Derby on the lead. That's going to be near impossible to beat if he gets a decent draw and a clean break.... I know the ride on LaL that day was dreadful, and if he had had an opportunity to contend that day we'd all have learned something more tangible... but still I've gotta use him

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I think it was Steve Haskins that mentioned that even in the races where he goes to the lead, he closes with the same fractions as the closers - for instance he came home in 35 3/5ths in the SA Derby on the lead. That's going to be near impossible to beat if he gets a decent draw and a clean break.... I know the ride on LaL that day was dreadful, and if he had had an opportunity to contend that day we'd all have learned something more tangible... but still I've gotta use him

He closed well because he was given a slow- easy lead. The question he must answer is how he will finish with a half in 46. Even if he rates a few lengths off, he is likely to cover the first half in 2 seconds faster than his previous wins.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Hopefully we can get a little discussion going about individual Derby horses but can all of you who are planning to bet Sidney's Candy tell me if you think he's suddenly going to decide to rate. Or do you think he's going to be the speed of the speed?

I ask because since he's become the morning darling his price is steadily decreasing and I can't come up with any plausible scenario where he wins this race even with who's slated to run as of now.

NT

I do think he will rate.

For what it's worth... his work this morning was excellent.

[hockey2315]

I didn't think his work this AM bodes as well for his ability to rate as most do.

[blackthroatedwind]

Assuming horses will rate effectively is a big mistake.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Assuming horses will rate effectively is a big mistake.

Assuming any horse will do something professionally on Derby Day is always a question.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I didn't think his work this AM bodes as well for his ability to rate as most do.

I agree, he looked like he was carrying his head higher like he was climbing the whole time he was behind his work mate, he only relaxed when he passed him and looked like he was being asked to finish up.

[DerbyCat]

From the DRF: "Sidney's Candy has a quarter crack patch on the inside of his right front hoof, but Sadler said the patch is several months old."

Has anyone heard about this before today? This is news to me... although a 6f work in 1:11 isn't too bad with a patched quarter crack

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

He closed well because he was given a slow- easy lead. The question he must answer is how he will finish with a half in 46. Even if he rates a few lengths off, he is likely to cover the first half in 2 seconds faster than his previous wins.

thats the question for this horse and the favorite. both prep races were slow paces. this makes a good horse look like a hero. the derby will have the usual desparate types that throw down the gaunlet early. this sometimes discourages horses that have had their own way or causes bad trips for the faves. don't people understand that this is how the giacomos and mine that birds win this race? it changes a little from year to year and who knows what the track will be like. but many years the first tier is dead and the race falls apart at the turn. even big brown and barbaro backed off a little and they were not closers. borail has won two derbies this way in the last three years. i would not bet that horse(candy) at under 12-1. counting on these front runners to suddenly rate is usually a loser in this race, the odds have to be worth the risk. the war emblem type wins are few and far between. monarchos is the last horse to break the 2 minute mark and he came from downtown too. i know, i still have a bellamy road ticket i saved from 5 years ago. its worth diddley. he got to jog around and beat up lesser at a slow pace, a little dirt in the face and some tussle changes the game.

[South Beach Luv]

So he's going to be around 7/2 now?

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

With his strings of great works I would guess worse case sceniro he is the second choice and IMO he is the likely chalk now.

Baffert & Lucky with be the choice now.....IMO

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Well one of those 2 clearly... Who else is even an option to be chalk? I think Im back on Awesome Act.

No one......if you think "chalk" will be in the 4-1 to 6-1 range, I'm "backing" my original two - Sidney's Candy & Ice Box.....you go with who paid you well!

[chucklestheclown]

Last night I couldn't answer the original question. I am betting him because he will be the best horse in the race, he is the fastest if Sadler wants him to be and I am confident he can rate.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

No one......if you think "chalk" will be in the 4-1 to 6-1 range, I'm "backing" my original two - Sidney's Candy & Ice Box.....you go with who paid you well!

If you win... I win. I'm on the same two plus one wild card yet to be determined.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

No one......if you think "chalk" will be in the 4-1 to 6-1 range, I'm "backing" my original two - Sidney's Candy & Ice Box.....you go with who paid you well!

That leaves me with American Lion and Stately Victor