Rule of Thumb for wagering at Keeneland

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

Ditto. Well written and provided me with a whole new perspective.

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Ditto. Well written and provided me with a whole new perspective.

Many horses like running on firm turf or firm dirt surfaces. Hence the term "hearing their feet rattle". Not every horse is as brave as others. When they run on footing that is unsure, they don't try their best.
Its why on soft turf courses that form changes and the races often get strung out with many stragglers in the rear obviously not trying(ahem, ahem, cough cough cough POLYTRACK!).

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.

I'll call at lunch, it's local for me...

Originally Posted by oracle80

Randall or Derek or PointG do me a favor ok? get on the horn with Turfway and ask for their mutuel department, tell em you are just a casual race fan with a curiosity about it(which in itself would be considered vey strange if you don't have a vested interest in it). lemme know how fast the guy gives you the stats.
Look Euro, I like you, but the shows over. You obviously do indeed have a vested interest in either the tracks, the surfaces, or both. And i don't care who you are, I'd just appreciate it if you stopped insulting our intelligence as if we were all complete morons who had no idea that you do.

Again, I dont have a vested interest. I dont know how I can make that any clearer. I was a tires salesmen, a tire store owner and soon a college student again. I no zero interest in investing my money in something that I dont know much about. That isnt good business.

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I'll call at lunch, it's local for me...

Yeah just tell them you want the meet figures on handle before they release them to the public and shareholders. If he asks who you are just tell em a casual race fan with an interest in it. Lemme know how it goes. This shouldn't be any problem whatsoever as Euro was given the info on opening day handle and posted how much it was up before it was given to the public or listed on equibase, etc.
I'm sure they just give that info out to anyone.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Again, I dont have a vested interest. I dont know how I can make that any clearer. I was a tires salesmen, a tire store owner and soon a college student again. I no zero interest in investing my money in something that I dont know much about. That isnt good business.

Ok, assuming thats true, why the cheerleading and shilling for tracks and a surface that you have no vested interest in?

Originally Posted by oracle80

Ok, assuming thats true, why the cheerleading and shilling for tracks and a surface that you have no vested interest in?

I also cheer for Saratoga, Belmont and I wager most of my dollars in Cali tracks. I have been touting Oct 7th as the best day of racing for almost two months and I also boost how great of a card Belmont has that day.

[Pedigree Ann]

The reason tracks are installing artificial surfaces instead of better dirt tracks is maintenance costs. A good, deep dirt track that is properly banked on the turns takes a lot of care - to keep the cushion from migrating to the rail on the turns (gravity), to keep it at the right density by harrowing water into it, to keep it from becoming a quagmire in rain or a skating rink in cold. This means a lot of workers and a lot of equipment. Track managers are counting the beans and see that a surface that only needs occasional harrowing will save them beaucoup bucks. The cheap and easy way to keep horses from breaking down more often, as opposed to what we traditionalists would call the right way.

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

The reason tracks are installing artificial surfaces instead of better dirt tracks in maintenance costs. A good, deep dirt track that is properly banked on the turns takes a lot of care - to keep the cushion from migrating to the rail on the turns (gravity), to keep it at the right density by harrowing water into it, to keep it from becoming a quagmire in rain or a skating rink in cold. This means a lot of workers and a lot of equipment. Track managers are counting the beans and see that a surface that only needs occasional harrowing will save them beaucoup bucks. The cheap and easy way to keep horses from breaking down more often, as opposed to what we traditionalists would call the right way.

yeah God Forbid you use long gallops with occasional works not tilted towards seeing how fast the horse can possibly go every 7 days. Shoot if people did that, they might have sounder horses and win more races. Can't have that now can we.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by oracle80

yeah God Forbid you use long gallops with occasional works not tilted towards seeing how fast the horse can possibly go every 7 days. Shoot if people did that, they might have sounder horses and win more races. Can't have that now can we.

I like that

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Excellent Post!

Only question and this is just for my knowledge. What does "hear their feet rattle" mean?

It is a phrase regarding horses that love hard and fast dirt tracks - which many of them do....again, its like running on a road or dirt path....yes, they are more hard on the bones because the surface is much tighter and the concussion is greater, but this is how we've bred and run horses for over a hundred years in America.....sires like Storm Cat ad A.P. indy are successful because they were bred to be superior over this hard, firm surface that is dirt...their genetic makeup and genetic biomechanics are fit to be the premier dirt horses in the world.....now on Polytrack we may see horses like Storm Cat become obsolete because the genetics of that lines may not like a softer surface that is more tiring, etc....I realize that mayu be an overdramatic statement, but there WILL be some significant changes to the game we've grown to love through hundreds of years of traditionif we install Polytrack everywhere.....

Originally Posted by Round Pen

I like that

You are in good company then Round Pen. Frankel and Dutrow like that as well.

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

It is a phrase regarding horses that love hard and fast dirt tracks - which many of them do....again, its like running on a road or dirt path....yes, they are more hard on the bones because the surface is much tighter and the concussion is greater, but this is how we've bred and run horses for over a hundred years in America.....sires like Storm Cat ad A.P. indy are successful because they were bred to be superior over this hard, firm surface that is dirt...their genetic makeup and genetic biomechanics are fit to be the premier dirt horses in the world.....now on Polytrack we may see horses like Storm Cat become obsolete because the genetics of that lines may not like a softer surface that is more tiring, etc....I realize that mayu be an overdramatic statement, but there WILL be some significant changes to the game we've grown to love through hundreds of years of traditionif we install Polytrack everywhere.....

You mean evolution and breeding hasn't been geared towards ground up tires covered with wax. I'm absolutely ****ing shocked.

Originally Posted by oracle80

You mean evolution and breeding hasn't been geared towards ground up tires covered with wax. I'm absolutely ****ing shocked.

Exactly, but you have to talk about the Polytrack issue wearing kitten gloves because of all of the horses that are breaking down on dirt....I love the quick fix it provides to the health of the horse and the quick fix it provides to the entry box for racetracks to make them more money by having a BIGGER card to bet (but ironically, a decievingly worse ad more confusing card to bet for the handicapper), but I DO NOT like the fact that it will change the game in MORE ASPECTS THAN THE AVERAGE HORSE AN REALIZES!!!

I look at it like this:

Yes, I'm sad to see Barbaro break down on dirt, but it would be a greater shame in my opinion if Barbaro was never realized as a good horse had he had to run on Polytrack his whole life, because you never know...he might hae HATED it and just been another 'horse' - and not the Barbaro we grew to love by his turf and dirt efforts.....just saying..

The Polytrack will bring different kinds of champions, but I'll always question in the back of my mind how good a champion on Polytrack really is if he had to run on dirt...

Remember, horses are wild animals that learned how to run and be superior athletes in the natural environs of the planet - mostly consisting of GRASS pasteurs or DIRT trails....

God didn't make them to run on rubber tires and fibers covered in wax.....thats just my opinion though

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Exactly, but you have to talk about the Polytrack issue wearing kitten gloves because of all of the horses that are breaking down on dirt....I love the quick fix it provides to the health of the horse and the quick fix it provides to the entry box for racetracks to make them more money by having a BIGGER card to bet (but ironically, a decievingly worse ad more confusing card to bet for the handicapper), but I DO NOT like the fact that it will change the game in MORE ASPECTS THAN THE AVERAGE HORSE AN REALIZES!!!

I look at it like this:

Yes, I'm sad to see Barbaro break down on dirt, but it would be a greater shame in my opinion if Barbaro was never realized as a good horse had he had to run on Polytrack his whole life, because you never know...he might hae HATED it and just been another 'horse' - and not the Barbaro we grew to love by his turf and dirt efforts.....just saying..

The Polytrack will bring different kinds of champions, but I'll always question in the back of my mind how good a champion on Polytrack really is if he had to run on dirt...

Remember, horses are wild animals that learned how to run and be superior athletes in the natural environs of the planet - mostly consisting of GRASS pasteurs or DIRT trails....

God didn't make them to run on rubber tires and fibers covered in wax.....thats just my opinion though

I agree 100%. I just wish that they could have put down a deeper cushion instead... oh well, my opinion doesn't count for shiat when it comes to this.

[JJP]

AVOID multirace wagers on Polytrack. I've found there will be an occasional race at Turfway that I'll nail. But the increased randomness has made being "right" 3 or 4 races in a row very difficult. Tris and exactas would be preferred over P3s/P4s, IF one chooses to bet on the Polytrack races.

[jpops757]

I have a gr8 idea for a safe track. How about a 6 foot deep river that is 1 mile long and runs in a circle, we can adjust it to flow in any direction and actually adjust its depth between 5 and 7 foot. You might be disapointed in the times and the lack of the better horses adjusting to the surface. One thing for sure, there will be none, Imean zero breakdown, We might suffer a few drownings but a horse will never have a soundness problem. The up keep for this new surface would be no more than the average swimming pool.

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Well said...I agree deeply...this is EXACTLY why I am NOT a proponent of Polytrack....many top dirt horses won't act on it...

I still can't see how With a City won the Lane's End earlier this year....he couldn't have won on the dirt if they'd have let him cut through the infield....

This surface WILL change racing and in more negative ways than positive IMO....start taking notes

I think we should give it a chance, at least this time at Keeneland we actually don't know what to expect, as opposed to the usual rail favoring conveyor belt that has plagued that place for years.

I guess the bottom line for me is I'm all for ANYTHING to make it safer on the horses, that's all I really care about in the end.

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Could he beat Premium Tap on the dirt? Absolutely, Premium Tap isn't the type that is guaranteed to fire every time out. That being said on a dirt surface Premium Tap would beat him 8 out of 10 times. However on the equibase figures Ball Four looked really competitive in the field and we had absolutely no clue how Premium Tap woud take to the surface so Ball Four was an absolute steal at double digit odds. I'm sorry you didn't bet him but the idea of you telling me that I'm an idiot for winning money off of him is absolutely ridiculous. If you bet the chalk in his first start on polytrack coming off the race of his life with Kent D aboard then you deserved to lose.

Hey no need for rational thinking in handicapping. Shame on you for not picking a dead chalk who went off as a bomb in his last race. It's obvious New York racing is better than any racing in the world. Hell a 40k claimer at Toga should win all of the grade 1's at Keeneland. Hail Saratoga east coast bias!!

Originally Posted by jpops757

I have a gr8 idea for a safe track. How about a 6 foot deep river that is 1 mile long and runs in a circle, we can adjust it to flow in any direction and actually adjust its depth between 5 and 7 foot. You might be disapointed in the times and the lack of the better horses adjusting to the surface. One thing for sure, there will be none, Imean zero breakdown, We might suffer a few drownings but a horse will never have a soundness problem. The up keep for this new surface would be no more than the average swimming pool.

Lharge, noone wants horses to get hurt but the BUSINESS of horse racing is pretty heavily reliant on wagering to kinda generate minor things like purses.
I've got a great idea Jpops!!!
Go and get us the paperwork to fill out for a patent today!!! YOu can be my partner!! We'll call it pillowtrack. We'll take thousands of pillows and use them as the base. Then we cover the pillow base with a 3 foot layer of feathers.
Sure it will take em 5 minutes to go 6 furlongs. But hey, I'm sure it won't take long to find out who the excellent pillow track stallions are. Injuries will drop down to nothing. And if one falls the jocks will be safe landing on the feathers over the pillow base.
Of course noone will bet the stuff, and tracks will go out of business, but as long as we have a bunch of safe horses thats all that matters!!
Pillow Track!!! A jpops/oracle company bringing the ultimate in safe race track conditions to a track near you!!! Coming soon!!!