Saturday Beyers

Kasept · #1 07-11-2010, 12:38 AM

Big Drama 104
Pica Slew 101
Jessica is Back 95
Little Drama 93
Coffee Boy 93

Gio Ponti 100
Tahitian Warrior 103

Trappe Shot 105

Blind Luck 94
Pickapocket 92
Trickmeister 95

Awesome Gem TBD
E Z's Gentleman TBD

hockey2315 · #2 07-11-2010, 12:41 AM

There's something very, very wrong w/ the DEL Beyers.

letswastemoney · #3 07-11-2010, 03:37 AM

Big Drama was very impressive. I wish I played that race.

VOL JACK · #4 07-11-2010, 08:06 AM

Not that turf Beyers matter but, you can bet your last dollar that they will give a G1 turf race winner at least a 100....no matter what.
See the 2009 Maker's Mark Mile at Kee...that was run in a swamp.

Sightseek · #5 07-11-2010, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Big Drama 104
Pica Slew 101
Jessica is Back 95
Little Drama 93

Gio Ponti 100
Tahitian Warrior 103

Trappe Shot 105

Blind Luck 94
Pickapocket 92
Trickmeister 95

Awesome Gem TBD
E Z's Gentleman TBD

FTFY - what a performance by the little brother.

Danzig · #6 07-11-2010, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

FTFY - what a performance by the little brother.

by burning roma-i loved burning roma! hoping for good things to come from this guy.

RolloTomasi · #7 07-11-2010, 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

by burning roma-i loved burning roma! hoping for good things to come from this guy.

I was pissed when that horse didn't run in either the Derby or the Preakness. I think they even had Chris McCarron fly in to ride him in his prep races.

NTamm1215 · #8 07-11-2010, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

There's something very, very wrong w/ the DEL Beyers.

Wow, I hadn't looked at the charts yet then did when I read your post. Yeah, pretty sure Blind Luck going 2 second faster than the other two should yield those figures.

NT

hockey2315 · #9 07-11-2010, 01:41 PM

I really hope Steve or somebody can get to the bottom of this.

blackthroatedwind · #10 07-11-2010, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I really hope Steve or somebody can get to the bottom of this.

You honestly don't get it?

hockey2315 · #11 07-11-2010, 02:04 PM

I know why they did it, but strongly disagree.

blackthroatedwind · #12 07-11-2010, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm pretty sure I know why they did it, but I don't think they should have done it.

So, Pickapocket and Trickmeister should have gotten 75s....or Blind Luck and Havre de Grace should have gotten 115s.

OK, feel free to expound on either scenerio....because clearly you believe in one of them.

cmorioles · #13 07-11-2010, 02:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I really hope Steve or somebody can get to the bottom of this.

Here are the raw figures and Beyers of the route races:

R 1 72, 82
R 3 67, 77
R 7 86, 95
R 8 52, 65
R 9 105, 94
R10 83, 92

So, you have the track SLOW 10, SLOW 10, SLOW 9, SLOW 13, FAST 11, SLOW 9.

Beyer would never average the FAST 11 with the others. The average of all the others is SLOW 10. If you use that for the Delaware Oaks, you now give the race a 115 Beyer. Does anyone think that is accurate, or even close?

If you do that, this is what you have:

Blind Luck 115 (previous top 104)
Havre De Grace 115 (83)
Derwin's Star 112 (86)
No Such Word 110 (93)
Worship the Moon 91 (80)
Calypso Queen 76 (65)
Listen In 71 (76)

My guess is the answer lies somewhere in between. I think Havre De Grace probably improved more than a 94 would indicate, but certainly nowhere near a 115. Anybody thinking this race wasn't a MUST break out from the others is delirious or knows nothing about figure making.

philcski · #14 07-11-2010, 02:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You honestly don't get it?

Want to elaborate on why you think they are good numbers?

NVM- already answered

cmorioles · #15 07-11-2010, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Want to elaborate on why you think they are good numbers?

(If the answer is "every horse in the Oaks would end up with a new top", I think that's a cop-out on the part of the figuremaker.)

There is a difference between every horse (but one) getting a new top, and every horse (but one) getting new tops averaging 18 points, or about 11 lengths.

blackthroatedwind · #16 07-11-2010, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Want to elaborate on why you think they are good numbers?

NVM- already answered

Geez, Phil, I would think as a figure maker you would know the extraordinarily obvious answer.

Then again, perhaps you are testing me. Nah, couldn't be.

philcski · #17 07-11-2010, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Geez, Phil, I would think as a figure maker you would know the extraordinarily obvious answer.

Then again, perhaps you are testing me. Nah, couldn't be.

I knew the answer. But I think the adjustment was too strong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So, Pickapocket and Trickmeister should have gotten 75s....or Blind Luck and Havre de Grace should have gotten 115s.

OK, feel free to expound on either scenerio....because clearly you believe in one of them.

Not sure I follow why there's hostility here. It's a reasonable question. The adjustment, while understandable, is awfully severe.

On the flipside, anybody that thinks Pickapocket ran better than Blind Luck and Havre De Grace is fooling themselves.

philcski · #18 07-11-2010, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

There is a difference between every horse (but one) getting a new top, and every horse (but one) getting new tops averaging 18 points, or about 11 lengths.

I know. But it still creates the problem of did the surface change that much in 30 minutes (and 57 minutes from the previous race)? No (or at least, very unlikely). Was the clock wrong? Maybe. Is 94 the right adjusted number? I don't know.

But I'm not allowed to discuss Beyers anymore so I'll shut up now.

hockey2315 · #19 07-11-2010, 02:26 PM

I'm fine with them playing with the figures to a certain extent. It was obviously a tricky day with the track condition, DEL's a quirky track for making figures in general, and the paces of the two races for males were very different from Blind Luck's race.

None of the figures even seem off to me from what I would expect any of those horses to run.

However, last I checked, Beyers aren't supposed to incorporate pace like that. There's no way that you can give a horse who ran two seconds faster a lower fig without splitting the variant or something (which they didn't do). It's just too big of a gap to justify what they did.

I expected BL's fig to be a little higher, and the other two's to be a little lower. I don't even think much of BL talent-wise, although I respect the fact that they haven't kept her in the barn.

The spirit of Beyers--what set them apart from the more "sophisticated" figures--was their objectiveness and room for interpretation by handicappers. That has been completely lost. Maybe they can come with Joe Cardello's personal trip notes from now on.

blackthroatedwind · #20 07-11-2010, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I knew the answer. But I think the adjustment was too strong.

Not sure I follow why there's hostility here. It's a reasonable question. The adjustment, while understandable, is awfully severe.

On the flipside, anybody that thinks Pickapocket ran better than Blind Luck and Havre De Grace is fooling themselves.

There was ZERO hostility there. It was a question where I pointed out to disagree with the figures you had to believe one of the two scenerios I laid out. You would have understood that if you would stop grinding that f'n axe.