7/28 (SAR): Lake George S. (G2)

[hockey2315]

8th (4:56) Lake George S. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (Inner turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 1 House of Grace Dominguez R A bin Suroor Saeed 116 L 8-1
2 2 Crescenda Velasquez C McDonald Michael K 116 L 6-1
3 3 Khancord Kid Maragh R Kimmel John C 122 L 20-1
4 4 Neon Light (GER) Prado E S Wohler Andreas 120 FTL 9-2
5 5 Perfect Shirl Velazquez J R Attfield Roger L 116 L 15-1
6 6 No Explaining (IRE) Lezcano J Attfield Roger L 118 12-1
7 7 Go Ask Alex Court J K Glenney John 120 L 30-1
8 8 Strike It Rich Gomez G K Clement Christophe 122 L 7-2
9 9 Dynazaper Leparoux J R Mott William I 120 L 12-1
10 10 Exclusive Love Bridgmohan S X Casse Mark 116 L 30-1
11 11 Caminadora Castellano J J Pletcher Todd A 122 L 12-1
12 12 Bay to Bay Albarado R J Lynch Brian A 120 L 4-1
13 AE Ambitoness Hill C Cesare William 116 L 50-1
14 AE Kittylicious Coa E M Sciacca Gary 116 L 50-1
15 AE Queen Hazel Garcia Alan Ribaudo Robert J 116 L 20-1

[hockey2315]

Very nice field. . . For betting purposes at least.

No Explaining intrigues me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Very nice field. . . For betting purposes at least.

No Explaining intrigues me.

There is a horse in here, WHO CANT LOSE. She will not be defeated.

[hockey2315]

Kittylicious?

[iamthelurker]

German filly is interesting.

[hockey2315]

She's logical, but I think she'll be overbet.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Kittylicious?

hahaha, Good one. I LOVE RAMON IN HERE.
She is super talented, so many reassons why she ran the way she did in her last, this is the spot they want to win. She rolls home.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

hahaha, Good one. I LOVE RAMON IN HERE.
She is super talented, so many reassons why she ran the way she did in her last, this is the spot they want to win. She rolls home.

I figured your boy Sciacca gave you a tip over a bowl of Carbonara at King Umberto's.

I don't trust House of Grace at all.

[Sightseek]

I thought Bay to Bay's last race was a solid effort considering how the race played out.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I thought Bay to Bay's last race was a solid effort considering how the race played out.

I agree, I think she'll run very well here. I also think House of Grace is due to rebound in a big way.

Robby Albarado will certainly be due by the time the Lake George rolls around, 0-20 and counting...

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I figured your boy Sciacca gave you a tip over a bowl of Carbonara at King Umberto's.

I don't trust House of Grace at all.

Why dont you trust her?

[hockey2315]

Well. . . For one, I think a lot of the horses she was running against last year have ended up being overrated or disappointments. I guess you could say she needed the last race, but trip wise I didn't think she had any excuse not to blow by those horses - she came to them and they repelled her - and Granted Tiger didn't exactly flatter her today. I also don't think Suroor (Metee) is an upgrade over McPeek. Plus she'll be overbet.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Well. . . For one, I think a lot of the horses she was running against last year have ended up being overrated or disappointments. I guess you could say she needed the last race, but trip wise I didn't think she had any excuse not to blow by those horses - she came to them and they repelled her - and Granted Tiger didn't exactly flatter her today. I also don't think Suroor (Metee) is an upgrade over McPeek. Plus she'll be overbet.

I disagree.... Tapitsfly has yet to run back, so who knows whats up with her. Hatheer just blew a field away at Belmont, Rose Catherine is 2/3 and her loss she DID ALL THE RUNNING EARLY. Het 2 wins have been really strong. Ill give you Smart Seattle though she SUCKS. Really though, what does 2yr old form have to do with now? She is eiether talented or shes not, I think the Suroor is a giant upgrade over Mcpeek.
Last 5 years at Saratoga on turf, pretty simple stat-

Suroor- 7/21, 28%, 52% ITM $2.18 ROI

Mcpeek- 5/39, 9%, 38% ITM $1.58 ROI

Last 5 years at Saratoga, PERIOD

Mcpeek- 12/70, 11%, 41% ITM $1.58 ROI

Suroor- 23/45, 37%, 67% ITM $2.54

Suroor>Mcpeek anyday of the week and ESPECIALLY AT SARATOGA.

[hockey2315]

Hatheer is terrible. . . and her recent win came over yielding ground. Rose Catherine's a sprinter. Obviously I'm a Tapitsfly fan--and I hope she comes back strong--but I'm dubious.

Comparing McPeek's win percentage to Suroor's like that is painfully simple-minded. . . even for you. Their stock is completely different, so what they do with other horses is irrelevant to me. Simply put - I doubt "Suroor" (not really him) has or ever will train this horse in a way that will serve to improve her. How many maiden winners has "he" gotten from Albertrani that never reproduce their form?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Hatheer is terrible. . . and her recent win came over yielding ground. Rose Catherine's a sprinter. Obviously I'm a Tapitsfly fan--and I hope she comes back strong--but I'm dubious.

Comparing McPeek's win percentage to Suroor's like that is painfully simple-minded. . . even for you. Their stock is completely different, so what they do with other horses is irrelevant to me. Simply put - I doubt "Suroor" (not really him) has or ever will train this horse in a way that will serve to improve her. How many maiden winners has "he" gotten from Albertrani that never reproduce their form?

Again I just threw the 2yr olds out there, what does 2yr old form from 8 months ago have to do with now? The simple minded comment... even for me, is a low blow. You and I both know this, is it safe to say last year you spent more time talking to me about Toga-Belmont then anyone? Im pretty sure my opinion was golden more then once last Summer. Its all good though Brian, Joey understands. Discussing the horses is one thing, I posted some stats, if you wanted to critize it would have been fine, I dont like the shot though.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Hatheer is terrible. . . and her recent win came over yielding ground. Rose Catherine's a sprinter. Obviously I'm a Tapitsfly fan--and I hope she comes back strong--but I'm dubious.

Comparing McPeek's win percentage to Suroor's like that is painfully simple-minded. . . even for you. Their stock is completely different, so what they do with other horses is irrelevant to me. Simply put - I doubt "Suroor" (not really him) has or ever will train this horse in a way that will serve to improve her. How many maiden winners has "he" gotten from Albertrani that never reproduce their form?

McPeek has been absolutely slaughtered with older horses at Saratoga over the last five years (5-74, $1.07) and overall he's far from impressive with them (18%, $1.65). In stakes races for older horses over the last five years, McPeek is 14-196, with an ROI of $0.89. Can he train 2YOs? Absolutely, but I'd hate to risk my money on a McPeek 2YO being a good 3YO.

His 2YOs have rarely held their form and his two stable stars from 2009, Beautician and Noble's Promise, are a combined 0-8 this year and Beautician most recently lost at 3/5 to a filly who was beaten by a city block in the CCA Oaks.

Even if his stock is lesser than Godolphin's, which is an understatement, McPeek's numbers with older horses are not exactly the type that make you say, "Wow, no one could improve on those."

There are fewer nicknames assigned be Indian Charlie that are more appropriate than "McPeeked."

NT

[hockey2315]

I'm not really a fan of his at all. . . and you're basically proving my point. It's highly unlikely that she'll be better this year - and she probably wasn't that good last year. What McPeek does with 3yo+ is equally as irrelevant in this case, isn't it?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm not really a fan of his at all. . . and you're basically proving my point. It's highly unlikely that she'll be better this year - and she probably wasn't that good last year. What McPeek does with 3yo+ is equally as irrelevant in this case, isn't it?

How are you not a fan? It was the basis of your argument vs me. I dont like HOG is a lock, but I expect a BIG LATE RUN. We will see in about 45 hours if that run is big enough.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

How are you not a fan? It was the basis of your argument vs me. I dont like HOG is a lock, but I expect a BIG LATE RUN. We will see in about 45 hours if that run is big enough.

Seriously?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Seriously?

DUDE, stop. You love Mcpeek.