Presque Isle at a mile

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The inside speed nature of a track that favors such runners is rarely reflected stronger in post position stats than it is in the shortest possible two-turn route said track runs.

In the case of Presque Isle - that will be at the distance of one mile. Because the start is so close to the first turn - a horse with a lot of early speed and a wide post will be unable to clear and make the rail without being very hard sent.

Post position 6 and outward is a combined 2-for-92 going one mile at Presque Isle this meet.

Of the two winners, one was a standout Jamie Ness trained favorite that paid $4.80 - the other was a 650K yearling buy - 4th time starter shipping in from Delaware, dropping into a 15K MCL race, and trying synthetic for the first time. He paid $9.40 to win.

The winner that paid $4.80 - horses breaking from posts 1, 2, and 3 completed a superfecta that paid over $6,000 in that race.

The winner that paid $9.40 - a 16/1 longshot breaking from post 2 was 2nd and a 23/1 shot breaking from the rail was 4th. The superfecta that included the two favorites and the two longshots breaking from posts 1 and 2 paid over $2,900.

Post 1 has won 28% of the races at one mile. Post 2 has won 23% of them.

There have been 560 races run for the entire meet at all distances - and BOTH post #1 and #2 are showing a very significant ROI profit. Meaning, if you simply bet both posts 1 and 2 in all 560 races run - you're WAY ahead. I've never seen that before in racing history.

Look at Post 6 going a mile - not only is it 0-for-36 this meet - but it's just had a single second place finish as well.

It's almost to the point where I'm wondering if watching so many races at this track is perverting my trip handicapping at other tracks. If you run a race like the Whitney here - Musket Man stops to a walk.

[Sightseek]

Maybe I should stop betting ST and start super boxing the inside posts at PID.

[hockey2315]

So what's the ROI if you bet BOTH the 1 and 2 post in every race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I haven't updated the ROI yet to include last weeks races. Post 1 is posting a staggering profit by itself. Post 2 is posting a healthy profit by itself. When I get more time after the races are done today I will.

[hockey2315]

Thank you. . . I'm intrigued. It would also be interesting to know the exacta ROI for those two slots, but that would be a huge pain to calculate.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Thank you. . . I'm intrigued. It would also be interesting to know the exacta ROI for those two slots, but that would be a huge pain to calculate.

Yeah it would.

Of the winter tracks - post position data strongly suggested that Fairgrounds was the most rail friendly of all this winter.

Here are post stats for races at a Mile and 40 yards on dirt at FG this winter: (The Mile and 40 yard distance is the shortest route distance they run)

Post 1: 51-for-182
Post 2: 23-for-182
Post 3: 21-for-182
Post 4: 18-for-182
Post 5: 20-for-182
Post 6: 11-for-178
Post 7: 16-for-168
Post 8: 9-for-137
Post 9: 6-for-100
Post 10: 5-for-77
Post 11: 1-for-47

I remember on Belmont Stakes Day - right before the Acorn I was sitting at a table at the track with my father and a few other local bettors - and one of them asked me what I thought of Champagne D' Oro.

I said "the most positive thing I can say is that she overcame the 10 post at Fair Grounds to run a good 2nd to Quiet Temper at 8.5f two starts back. I didn't use her." She wins at 39/1 odds.

When the Belmont Stakes comes a few races later - I say to the same guy "the most positive thing I can say about Drosselmeyer is that he overcame the 13 post at Fair Grounds in the La Derby at 8.5fs to run a good 3rd beaten just a length. But he got owned by Fly Down over this track last time" Drosselmeyer wins the Belmont at 13/1 odds - and my top two picks Fly Down and First Dude run 2nd and 3rd. I don't even use him on spreads in the multi-win.

After the race, the guy goes "I'm going to be scanning the form all summer looking for longshots who have a good recent race from a wide post at Fairgrounds"

[iamthelurker]

So as an example, if you were to bet the 2nd race at Presque Isle tomorrow you would be throwing out the 6-10? Followed by a large win bet on one of the 1-5, whichever has the most early speed? Or am I completely misreading what your trying to say?

[clyde]

^^^^ Should stick to lurking.

[AlreadyHome]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The inside speed nature of a track that favors such runners is rarely reflected stronger in post position stats than it is in the shortest possible two-turn route said track runs.

In the case of Presque Isle - that will be at the distance of one mile. Because the start is so close to the first turn - a horse with a lot of early speed and a wide post will be unable to clear and make the rail without being very hard sent.

Post position 6 and outward is a combined 2-for-92 going one mile at Presque Isle this meet.

Of the two winners, one was a standout Jamie Ness trained favorite that paid $4.80 - the other was a 650K yearling buy - 4th time starter shipping in from Delaware, dropping into a 15K MCL race, and trying synthetic for the first time. He paid $9.40 to win.

The winner that paid $4.80 - horses breaking from posts 1, 2, and 3 completed a superfecta that paid over $6,000 in that race.

The winner that paid $9.40 - a 16/1 longshot breaking from post 2 was 2nd and a 23/1 shot breaking from the rail was 4th. The superfecta that included the two favorites and the two longshots breaking from posts 1 and 2 paid over $2,900.

Post 1 has won 28% of the races at one mile. Post 2 has won 23% of them.

There have been 560 races run for the entire meet at all distances - and BOTH post #1 and #2 are showing a very significant ROI profit. Meaning, if you simply bet both posts 1 and 2 in all 560 races run - you're WAY ahead. I've never seen that before in racing history.

Look at Post 6 going a mile - not only is it 0-for-36 this meet - but it's just had a single second place finish as well.

It's almost to the point where I'm wondering if watching so many races at this track is perverting my trip handicapping at other tracks. If you run a race like the Whitney here - Musket Man stops to a walk.

thank you for this post wow i luv your obsevation/calculation @PID
THIS IS A VERY INTERESTING/EDUCATIONAL/INSIDE INFO POST WOWWW

[iamthelurker]

lol i obviously dont get it, if his numbers are legit wouldnt this be big for everyone?

[clyde]

You're asking....again!!??

[dagolfer33]

^^^^is lurking a lurker.

[clyde]

^^^^ Looking for Yippy Downs between race material.Maybe even for durring the race.

[dagolfer33]

^^^^may, or may not, be correct.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

So as an example, if you were to bet the 2nd race at Presque Isle tomorrow you would be throwing out the 6-10? Followed by a large win bet on one of the 1-5, whichever has the most early speed? Or am I completely misreading what your trying to say?

Hey.....tell The Gopher to bite you.

[iamthelurker]

I dont understand you, but the 9 horse just won race two at presque isle.

[iamthelurker]

So now its 3-93 according to Drugs findings.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I dont understand you, but the 9 horse just won race two at presque isle.

RHT had a win bet on the 1 and 2 that race. He told me.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I dont understand you, but the 9 horse just won race two at presque isle.

I know this takes brain cells to understand ....but ..

The track bias is to inside-speed horses.

The 9 horse had clearly the most early speed in the field - he was a speed horse and all drawn inside of him were closers ... because he was sent hard out of the gate - he was able to get to the inside and enjoy an easy lead before the first turn ...



He ran away with the race at 13/1. Where you start from (post position) only matters so much because it's easier to get to the rail when you're starting on the rail. It's hard to get to the rail when you start from a wide draw.

A 120/1 longshot was gunned to the lead in race #1 - got clear early and had enough left to finish 3rd at triple digit odds.

[iamthelurker]

I was saying I dont understand you to clyde.

Before I was just asking you how you would approach handicapping the race knowing that its a short run into the first turn. With the stats so against the outside posts, did you still bet the 9?