9/1 (SAR): $443k C/O ~ Contest/Discussion - Page 2

Scav · #21 08-31-2010, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Dominguez gets off Arch Support to ride Pleine Forme. The race is wide open though. I don't know how one can eliminate Dos Lunas and Believe in A. P.

He got off Arch Support because it wasn't a good race, which is why Believe in AP is a toss IMO because she is gonna get bet becausce Dicky Dutrow will tell everyone he loves her, like he did the last time she ran.

Dos Lunas ran a couple days ago at Monmouth, highly unlikely she is running again

Scav · #22 08-31-2010, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

i know the 7th isn't that easy of a race, but i can only come up with the obvious choices (1 and 6). Matz firing at 4% clip with firsters isn't that inviting. Rudy Rudy Rudy would be interesting if he draws in, and #5 Power Dreams first on the grass caught my eye as well

-bt-

Power Dreams is a single to me, real good work on the surface he was almost guaranteed bred for. The only other horse is the first time Chad Brown but Power Dreams has alot of things I like when betting a horse in a baby race (3rd race, ran decent on his likely least preferred surface, two sprints / route). I expect him to be on or near the lead and just let his experience take over at the half mile pole

ateamstupid · #23 08-31-2010, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

He got off Arch Support because it wasn't a good race, which is why Believe in AP is a toss IMO because she is gonna get bet becausce Dicky Dutrow will tell everyone he loves her, like he did the last time she ran.

Dos Lunas ran a couple days ago at Monmouth, highly unlikely she is running again

It's not exactly easy to win an 8.5 furlong turf race off of only a 5 furlong dirt race in which you did no running. I think Believe in A. P. is much more likely to move forward than Arch Support.

Scav · #24 08-31-2010, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's not exactly easy to win an 8.5 furlong turf race off of only a 5 furlong dirt race in which you did no running. I think Believe in A. P. is much more likely to move forward than Arch Support.

I completely agree, but I think that move up will be more like next year, then tomorrow

RockHardTen1985 · #25 08-31-2010, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Pleine Forme looks very good considering the pedigree and relevant trainer angles, but the Pletcher looks sneaky. How often do you see him claim? The answer? Twice in the last 5 years. One of them was second by a neck going long on the turf at 10-1.

Question with an answer...
STRONG.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #26 08-31-2010, 02:48 PM

[quote=Scav;690400]He got off Arch Support because it wasn't a good race, which is why Believe in AP is a toss IMO because she is gonna get bet becausce Dicky Dutrow will tell everyone he loves her, like he did the last time she ran.

that was very close to a one suit comment..dont make me unfriend you on facebook..

fantini33 · #27 08-31-2010, 02:49 PM

The cats out of the bag on Thursday.......KITTYLICIOUS!! 15-1 ml in the feature.

Getting ahead of myself I know, but I cannot play on Wed, so looked ahead a bit to Thursday.

Nice card...

Good luck t'morrow folks!

RockHardTen1985 · #28 08-31-2010, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fantini33

The cats out of the bag on Thursday.......KITTYLICIOUS!! 15-1 ml in the feature.

Getting ahead of myself I know, but I cannot play on Wed, so looked ahead a bit to Thursday.

Nice card...

Good luck t'morrow folks!

She ran really well last time and could fill out the exacta at a more likely price of 30-1

the_fat_man · #29 08-31-2010, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

She ran really well last time and could fill out the exacta at a more likely price of 30-1

Not well enough.

-BT- · #30 08-31-2010, 02:59 PM

I’m thinking about singling in the finale….. am I suicidal?

I just don’t see the need to add mediocre horses to a ticket … sure they could win, but nobody is jumping off the form for me. The Roadhouse…. I know this horses is headed in the complete wrong direction, but im interested in hearing others opinions on this race. Stream of Gold seems the only other logical horse to me in this race, but this is also a horse hitting bottom at the age of 9 with 27 lifetime starts, on form he comes off as a plodder.

-bt-

fantini33 · #31 08-31-2010, 03:07 PM

Gonna play her in all spots and all over multi race wagers. Watch her last race. Ramon gets bottled up just a little last time and when clear blows by the others and just cannot get to the winner, who got first run.

I've said it for a long time..forwardly placed on the inner is the way to be, which is where she'll be. Ramon is great at this. He WILL get 1st run Thursday. Deep closers are ALWAYS overbet and seem to just not get up in time. That wire just gets there in a hurry on the inner. I've used this premise so many times successfully on the Saratoga inner with nice priced horses that I wish every card had 9 inner turf races.

Sitting on a big one and thinking that she is feeling good, which is why Gary throws her here.

IMO, she belongs here.

IMO

ateamstupid · #32 08-31-2010, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

I’m thinking about singling in the finale….. am I suicidal?

I just don’t see the need to add mediocre horses to a ticket … sure they could win, but nobody is jumping off the form for me. The Roadhouse…. I know this horses is headed in the complete wrong direction, but im interested in hearing others opinions on this race. Stream of Gold seems the only other logical horse to me in this race, but this is also a horse hitting bottom at the age of 9 with 27 lifetime starts, on form he comes off as a plodder.

-bt-

The Roundhouse makes sense on paper, but he's just been such a complete disappointment this year, I could never single him. Stream of Gold is logical, but I think he needs a pace collapse to win and there really isn't much speed. If Eldoktori is able to sit just behind Cinder Cone, I think he'll take some catching in the stretch. I'm a little interested (as I often am) in Voss' horse, even though he appears to be in lousy form, he has some competitive turf races on the flats.

RockHardTen1985 · #33 08-31-2010, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The Roundhouse makes sense on paper, but he's just been such a complete disappointment this year, I could never single him. Stream of Gold is logical, but I think he needs a pace collapse to win and there really isn't much speed. If Eldoktori is able to sit just behind Cinder Cone, I think he'll take some catching in the stretch. I'm a little interested (as I often am) in Voss' horse, even though he appears to be in lousy form, he has some competitive turf races on the flats.

This race makes the pick 6 almost unplayable to me.

Bigsmc · #34 08-31-2010, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I have a few opinions on this sequence....
I will be at the Spa in person for only the second time this meet.

I love the 1 in race 6. If I dont play this pick 6 I'll be betting him to win.

The 8th I love love love the 4. I also think the 9 is decent, but the 4 is big win bet and a really strong play for me.

I loved the 4 the other day when she was entered in a MSW going long on the grass, Sunday the 21st. Sloppy track, subsequent scratch and she shows up in a stake. Phipps obviously wants her on the grass, but it doesn't instill a ton of confidence when he was prepared to go in a Maiden race. I haven't looked at the condition book, but I suspect this is the only race left for 2yr old fillies going long on the grass.

I'll have to get through the rest of the card before I decide what to do with her.

Scav · #35 08-31-2010, 04:24 PM

[quote=hoovesupsideyourhead;690444]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

He got off Arch Support because it wasn't a good race, which is why Believe in AP is a toss IMO because she is gonna get bet becausce Dicky Dutrow will tell everyone he loves her, like he did the last time she ran.

that was very close to a one suit comment..dont make me unfriend you on facebook..

It is no where near that type of comment. Last time she ran I pushed on her as I was sitting with one of the larger players at Arlington and he talked to Dutrow, he loved her that day, and hated his horse in the last, who ended up being a late scratch (and if you go back in the archives you will see I said Dutrow hated the horse)

I don't think we are friends on FB, but unfriending is the new in thing I hear. Just happened to me the other day from someone on here actually. Quite hilarious.

ateamstupid · #36 08-31-2010, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I don't think we are friends on FB, but unfriending is the new in thing I hear. Just happened to me the other day from someone on here actually. Quite hilarious.

My bad, I just couldn't take it anymore.

-BT- · #37 08-31-2010, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The Roundhouse makes sense on paper, but he's just been such a complete disappointment this year, I could never single him. Stream of Gold is logical, but I think he needs a pace collapse to win and there really isn't much speed. If Eldoktori is able to sit just behind Cinder Cone, I think he'll take some catching in the stretch. I'm a little interested (as I often am) in Voss' horse, even though he appears to be in lousy form, he has some competitive turf races on the flats.

i really tried to make and excuse to use this horse....but i couldn't. I got him forth behind the obvious contenders and slick wheelie for god sakes. I just haven't seen the horse moving forward at the end of his last couple races..he did only lose his last by 3/4 but i think he's more apt to have a similar race 2 back where he stalks and just fades.... why the #5 Beneath the Crown is only 8-1 ml is beyond me.... wide open finale

-bt-

Scav · #38 08-31-2010, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The Roundhouse makes sense on paper, but he's just been such a complete disappointment this year, I could never single him. Stream of Gold is logical, but I think he needs a pace collapse to win and there really isn't much speed. If Eldoktori is able to sit just behind Cinder Cone, I think he'll take some catching in the stretch. I'm a little interested (as I often am) in Voss' horse, even though he appears to be in lousy form, he has some competitive turf races on the flats.

I'm 1/2/3/4 in this race and not comfortable, but I thought Voss's horse was the most interesting, jumps obviously didn't work and as you said, his races back at Laurel fit here.

Why can't Cinder Cone go gate to wire? If those jocks don't respect his speed and let him go 25/50, he could be gone.

Scav · #39 08-31-2010, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

My bad, I just couldn't take it anymore.

It wasn't you...!

-BT- · #40 08-31-2010, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

I'm 1/2/3/4 in this race and not comfortable, but I thought Voss's horse was the most interesting, jumps obviously didn't work and as you said, his races back at Laurel fit here.

Why can't Cinder Cone go gate to wire? If those jocks don't respect his speed and let him go 25/50, he could be gone.

that form dates back to '08 when richard's kid was a dirt horse.... and now

voss could crush me in this one, i just can't find a way to put him on the ticket

-bt-