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  #1  
Old 10-20-2010, 07:04 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Default The Golden Syringe Award

The Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer is pretty bunk in that it's basically an award given to the trainer with the best stock ... and no more than about four trainers each year have any realistic shot at winning it. Several hundred different trainers would have probably nailed it down this year with Pletcher's stock.

To win the Golden Syringe ... you must simply have the highest win percentage in the nation while winning at least 50 races and maintaining a profitable ROI for the year.

To win at a scary high percentage - you do have to stuff horses in and take no prisoners. Take Joe Woodard for instance. He's winning at 27.25% this year from over 800 starters. However, his ROI is just $1.36 - meaning he's losing 32% on every betting dollar ... double the takeout. He's basically winning at a high clip while bankrupting bettors.

In theory, it should be extremely difficult to have both a sky high win percentage and a profitable ROI in the same year - with volume. This is because horses from sky high win % barns are chronically over bet on paper. Someone like Juan Carlos Guerrero could run a goat with a horrid form and it would still take surprising money.

Without further ado:

2010 Golden Syringe Award Race

1st: Juan Carlos Guerrero (40.72%)
2nd: Brad Cox (31.54%)
3rd: Rudy Rodriguez (29.71%)


Past Champions:

2009

Keith Bennett (32.69%) - <-- Jamie Ness had 32.82% with $1.99 ROI

2008

Wayne Catalano (36.59%) - <-- Mike Maker checked in 2nd - Marty Wolfson $1.98 ROI cost him

2007

Kevin Lewis (32.09%) - Jamie Ness 2nd and Mike Maker 3rd

2006

Todd Beattie (32.60%) - Steph Beattie 2nd at 32.20 with amazing $2.41 ROI

2005

Wayne Catalano (36.18%) - Steph Beattie hit at 30.19 with impossible $2.98 ROI

2004

Keith Bennett (31.50%) - Tim Kreiser 2nd of $6,500 auction buy Peppi Knows fame 2nd.

2003

John Martin (30.74%) - Jeff Mullins just misses with 30.03

2002

Keith Bennett (37.57%) - Wayne Catalano checks in 2nd

2001

Cole Norman (32.62%) - Charlton Baker 2nd

2000

Charlton Baker (33.05%) - Jimmy Jerkens was 3rd that year!

1999

Keith Bennett (31.39%) - Tony Dutrow 2nd. John Shirreffs won at insane 40% that year (and on So. Cal circuit no less) .. but fell short of the required 50 minimum wins
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  #2  
Old 10-20-2010, 07:16 PM
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randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
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How dare you
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  #3  
Old 10-20-2010, 07:39 PM
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I am merely honoring the true unsung hero's of their profession.
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  #4  
Old 10-20-2010, 07:44 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Here are the three leaders this year with 1st off the claim:

* JC Guerrero (20-for-31) 65% wins $3.07 ROI

* Brad Cox (21-for-49) 43% wins $3.86 ROI

* Rudy Rod (8-for-20) 40% wins $3.44 ROI
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  #5  
Old 10-20-2010, 08:02 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
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maybe they should offer a lifetime achievement award in that category as well. i've got some ideas on who they could name it after.
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  #6  
Old 10-20-2010, 08:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Here are the three leaders this year with 1st off the claim:

* JC Guerrero (20-for-31) 65% wins $3.07 ROI
JC Guerrero ran a good one off the claim a week or so ago. Claimed the horse for $16,000 and won a $75,000 PA bred stakes a few weeks later...easily.
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  #7  
Old 10-20-2010, 08:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Danzig View Post
maybe they should offer a lifetime achievement award in that category as well. i've got some ideas on who they could name it after.
Considering that Keith Bennett has won 4 Golden Syringe's since 1999 - I think it's him.

Tragically he hasn't started a horse since April 27th of this year.

He was in strong contention for a 5th title this year - winning 32 of 84 races in 2010 (38% wins) and with a profitable ROI... it's too bad he decided to empty his syringes and hang it up.

Bennett has had a win percentage of 25% or higher every single year for the last ten years. He's had a profitable ROI for the year in nine out of the last 14 years.

Oddly, the one thing his horses were getting caught with in tests was alcohol when TuP started testing for it. From the Paulik Report...

Quote:
Another trainer, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told the Paulick Report alcohol is also being used in connection with so-called milkshakes, which contain baking soda and electrolytes and are designed to reduce the lactic acid buildup that causes fatigue. The concoction is mixed together as a paste, the trainer said, and can be administered through a dose syringe, though it is more effective when given through a tube into the horse’s stomach.

“You’re getting them carbohydrates at the top of the lane where some horses are running out of gas,” the trainer said. “I tried it, and believe me, it works. But I quit doing it because I couldn’t afford to get caught.”
Alchemist type stuff right there. Booze, baking soda, and electrolytes.
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  #8  
Old 10-20-2010, 08:26 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duvalier View Post
JC Guerrero ran a good one off the claim a week or so ago. Claimed the horse for $16,000 and won a $75,000 PA bred stakes a few weeks later...easily.
JC "the Impaler" Guerrero is possibly having the best year of any horse trainer since John Sherriffs in 1999... in terms of actual performance and not any other BS.

There is like a run in the betting on everything he sends out - especially early on - on every single horse he sends out. If they should be 6/1 on paper they're 5/2.
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  #9  
Old 10-20-2010, 08:30 PM
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It would be pretty cool to switch Guerrero's horses with George Iacovacci's stock and see what kind of subsequent results each of them get.
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  #10  
Old 10-20-2010, 08:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Here are the three leaders this year with 1st off the claim:

* JC Guerrero (20-for-31) 65% wins $3.07 ROI

* Brad Cox (21-for-49) 43% wins $3.86 ROI

* Rudy Rod (8-for-20) 40% wins $3.44 ROI
That's insane.
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  #11  
Old 10-20-2010, 08:46 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
JC "the Impaler" Guerrero is possibly having the best year of any horse trainer since John Sherriffs in 1999... in terms of actual performance and not any other BS.

There is like a run in the betting on everything he sends out - especially early on - on every single horse he sends out. If they should be 6/1 on paper they're 5/2.
Have you run his numbers on what happens when people claim FROM him? They're amazing.
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  #12  
Old 10-20-2010, 09:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duvalier View Post
It would be pretty cool to switch Guerrero's horses with George Iacovacci's stock and see what kind of subsequent results each of them get.
Believe it or not - Iacovacci did claim one off of him... though it was in Oct of '09, right before the impaler started rolling like the crimson tide.



It's best race came when it finished dead last beaten 20+ lengths while racing on a live rail at PID over a synthetic surface where it's harder for horses to lose by very wide margins.

Iacovacci's probably not as bad a trainer as he's cracked up to be. Don't get me wrong, he's a horrid trainer ... but most of his stock is like horses you assume he must have purchased for $300 out of a kill pen. A guy like Alejandro Reyes is 0-for-158 this year ... and he's got a horse like Prince Joshua in his barn... a horse who was Graded Stakes placed last year and ran a 102 Beyer right before he got him.
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  #13  
Old 10-20-2010, 09:46 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Have you run his numbers on what happens when people claim FROM him? They're amazing.
Yeah - it's remarkable. Normally, when people claim off of these guys, the sooner you run them back ... the better. They might still have magic stuck in them two or three weeks after the claim... most of the time though, it all goes down hill from there.

If these guys were like brilliant horsemen who found something nagging a horse and fixed it without using alchemy to get that improvement - you'd think that people would do fine claiming off of those guys because the horse is over what was nagging them and the high percentage guys enter so aggressively that you'd be getting a big bargain if you get the right one off of them.
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  #14  
Old 10-20-2010, 09:48 PM
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VOL JACK VOL JACK is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
The Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer is pretty bunk in that it's basically an award given to the trainer with the best stock ... and no more than about four trainers each year have any realistic shot at winning it. Several hundred different trainers would have probably nailed it down this year with Pletcher's stock.

To win the Golden Syringe ... you must simply have the highest win percentage in the nation while winning at least 50 races and maintaining a profitable ROI for the year.

To win at a scary high percentage - you do have to stuff horses in and take no prisoners. Take Joe Woodard for instance. He's winning at 27.25% this year from over 800 starters. However, his ROI is just $1.36 - meaning he's losing 32% on every betting dollar ... double the takeout. He's basically winning at a high clip while bankrupting bettors.

In theory, it should be extremely difficult to have both a sky high win percentage and a profitable ROI in the same year - with volume. This is because horses from sky high win % barns are chronically over bet on paper. Someone like Juan Carlos Guerrero could run a goat with a horrid form and it would still take surprising money.

Without further ado:

2010 Golden Syringe Award Race

1st: Juan Carlos Guerrero (40.72%)
2nd: Brad Cox (31.54%)
3rd: Rudy Rodriguez (29.71%)


Past Champions:

2009

Keith Bennett (32.69%) - <-- Jamie Ness had 32.82% with $1.99 ROI

2008

Wayne Catalano (36.59%) - <-- Mike Maker checked in 2nd - Marty Wolfson $1.98 ROI cost him

2007

Kevin Lewis (32.09%) - Jamie Ness 2nd and Mike Maker 3rd

2006

Todd Beattie (32.60%) - Steph Beattie 2nd at 32.20 with amazing $2.41 ROI

2005

Wayne Catalano (36.18%) - Steph Beattie hit at 30.19 with impossible $2.98 ROI

2004

Keith Bennett (31.50%) - Tim Kreiser 2nd of $6,500 auction buy Peppi Knows fame 2nd.

2003

John Martin (30.74%) - Jeff Mullins just misses with 30.03

2002

Keith Bennett (37.57%) - Wayne Catalano checks in 2nd

2001

Cole Norman (32.62%) - Charlton Baker 2nd

2000

Charlton Baker (33.05%) - Jimmy Jerkens was 3rd that year!

1999

Keith Bennett (31.39%) - Tony Dutrow 2nd. John Shirreffs won at insane 40% that year (and on So. Cal circuit no less) .. but fell short of the required 50 minimum wins
Not bad considering he was .08% for all of 2008!
He must have changed feeds or types of shoes...
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  #15  
Old 10-20-2010, 09:55 PM
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Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duvalier View Post
JC Guerrero ran a good one off the claim a week or so ago. Claimed the horse for $16,000 and won a $75,000 PA bred stakes a few weeks later...easily.
That may be considered a drop in class
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  #16  
Old 10-20-2010, 09:55 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Yeah - it's remarkable. Normally, when people claim off of these guys, the sooner you run them back ... the better. They might still have magic stuck in them two or three weeks after the claim... most of the time though, it all goes down hill from there.

If these guys were like brilliant horsemen who found something nagging a horse and fixed it without using alchemy to get that improvement - you'd think that people would do fine claiming off of those guys because the horse is over what was nagging them and the high percentage guys enter so aggressively that you'd be getting a big bargain if you get the right one off of them.
It's mind boggling. Guerrero over the last two years:

1st off the claim: 53%, $3.63

1st after claimed from: 3%, $0.19
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  #17  
Old 10-20-2010, 09:57 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VOL JACK View Post
Not bad considering he was .08% for all of 2008!
He must have changed feeds or types of shoes...
Woodard was actually 18% in '08. The only big difference from '08 to now is that he's now running horses at Beulah Park and Mountaineer A LOT more.

Woodard has a great owner ... give one of the wizard trainers his owner and enter as aggressively as Woodard does ... and you'd have something strong.
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  #18  
Old 10-20-2010, 09:58 PM
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Cannon Shell Cannon Shell is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Woodard was actually 18% in '08. The only big difference from '08 to now is that he's now running horses at Beulah Park and Mountaineer A LOT more.

Woodard has a great owner ... give one of the wizard trainers his owner and enter as aggressively as Woodard does ... and you'd have something strong.
I heard Woodard has a string at Lincoln park or Downs.
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  #19  
Old 10-20-2010, 10:11 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cannon Shell View Post
That may be considered a drop in class
Yeah, but to be fair, it was a 16K Non-winners of one for the year it was claimed out... and the horse ran 3rd beaten six lengths in a field of 6.

1st off of the claim, wins the 75K PA Bred stake by 8+ lengths at odds of 3/5 in a 9 horse field. Now that he blew the N1Y condition - I doubt that horse is worth 10K to almost any other trainer. He'll keeping hammering out mid 80 Beyers for the Impaler though.
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  #20  
Old 10-20-2010, 10:21 PM
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dalakhani dalakhani is offline
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How does John Carlisle rate?
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