Breeders Cup Friday Thoughts

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Marathon

Nothing like starting the Breeders Cup off with a $500,000 14 furlong dirt race - in which only a single horse has so much as one Graded Stakes win on dirt this year. That horse being Alcomo and that win being a nose score in the Brooklyn.

Awesome Gem and Giant Oak are clearly the two best horses. However, Giant Oak is 0-for-10 lifetime on dirt with several hanging underneath finishes. Awesome Gem has 13 second place finishes to just 7 wins.

Atoned, Million Seller, Romp, Gabriel's Hill all appear simply not good enough.

I'm only using the Euro's in the top slot and tossing them for all underneath slots. I suppose there's a chance one of them can handle the track and beat this sad group.

It boils out to a helter skelter stab looking exotic bets that go like this ....

Tri: 2-4-9-10-11-12 OVER 7-8 OVER 7-8 ($12 per ticket)

Super 2-4-9-10-11-12 OVER 7-8 OVER 2-4-6-10-12 OVER 7-8 ($50 per ticket)


Juvnile Turf Fillies

Actually a pretty good looking group.

The horses who drew posts 10 and 11 come out of a pretty strong Natalama - two interesting Euro's drew posts 12 and 13 - and a Pletcher/JRV has the 14 hole. I'll take my chances and toss all five in favor of the solid horses who had better draws.

2-3-7-8 in multi wins for me. And maybe a little 7/2-3-8 and 2-3-8/7 in exotics.


Filly and Mare Sprint

I'm betting against the two morning line favorites. Informed Decision would win this on synthetic and she will get her pace setup - but she's not good on dirt. I couldn't care less how anyone says she's working.

Rightly So - much like with fellow Tony Dutrow trained Havre De Grace - has seen her form thrive on an alchemistic move-up high. It's been a tale of two half years for Tony Dutrow. Here are his dirt stats for the first half of '10 - and the second half of this year.

Tony Dutrow first half of 2010: 47-for-191 (24.6% wins) $1.54 ROI
Tony Dutrow 2nd half of 2010: 45-for-116 (38.8% wins) $2.20 ROI

You see the spike in stats reflected on the form of a lot of his horses - Rightly So and Havre De Grace among them.

Rightly So was twice beaten in small NY Bred sprint stakes at AQU to start the year - and here she is favored for this.

Jessica Is Back is the one horse I feel I can turst to run well in this race.

The three wildcards are Sweet August Moon, Evening Jewel, and Switch. The latter two may struggle with what might be an uncomfotably fast pace for them. Sweet August Moon won't - I like her a lot - but is she good enough?

Using those four in Multi wins - and JIB boxed with them in the exacta.


Juvenile Fillies

The Beyer Par for this race is a 95.

Yet morning line favorite AZ Warrior has run four times and has never ran a figure better than 81. Morning line second choice R Heat Lightening has never run anything better than a 78. They have to improve 8.5 lengths and 10 lengths respectively just to reach par .. and in career start #5 no less. I'm playing against both.

Give me Theysken's Theory, Awesome Feather, Joyful Victory, Delightful Mary, Believe in AP, and Tell A Kelly.

I realize Joyful Victory was behind AZ Warrior and R Heat Lightening last time. But, you're talking about a Tapit debut winner routing .. who numbers suggest was probably placed too close to the pace last time out. Like the rider swith to the more patient Dominguez .. if I have to take one out of a slow race ... you can have the winner or the trip horse, I'll look for one with upside.

Filly And Mare Turf

I love that Plumania was beaten 26 lengths in the Arc and they bring her here. I'd much rather have a horse who put in no effort in the Arc. Longchamp is goofy course. Daylami got beat 23.5 lengths in the Arc and came right over here and won the Breeders Cup Turf with a 118 Beyer a few weeks later - made it look as easy as breaking sticks.

The last time Plumania ran on a turf course that lacked a "soft" in it's labeling - she won a Group 2 by a cozy margin at 11/1 odds in May. The time before that - she was 3rd (placed 2nd) at 27/1 odds behind Dar Re Mi. Dar Re Mi was 3rd to Conduit against males in last years BC Turf. She beat males from post 14 in that $5 million Dubai race over the winter as well.

Midday and Red Desire look like the other two in this race.


Distaff

A repeat of Unrivaled Belle's only other race over this track could probably win this race.

She beat Rachel Alexandra by a head on Kentucky Oaks day at 8.5fs in a rapidly run 1:42 4/5. By comparison - Blind Luck needed 1:50 3/5 that day to win the Ky Oaks .. basically Unrivaled Belle's race was six full lengths superior in terms of final times. She's the older female I want.

Blind Luck has improved since the Ky Oaks. She's very good. She has had a very tough campaign - and I guess you could make something of her repetitive lead switching in the stretch last time out .. I expect her to run well - if she was a speed horse or a presser - I think the chances of her hard season catching up to her would be something I'd worry about more.

I like a big longshot in this race. Seeking The Title had absolutely no chance in the world last time out. She was stuck behind an impossibly slow pace over a wet track. Dallas Stewart is one of my least favorite trainers - but his horses do run their best at Churchill for whatever reason and this will be her first CD start - and Calvin Borel has been lethal on these hapless looking one-dimensional closers at Churchill. I wouldn't be surprised if this horse wakes up.

[VOL JACK]

Rightly So is in my bottom five if I ranked the entire field in the F&M Sprint.
Mike B is really losing it on his ML making skills....(See the fav in the Dirt Mile)

I also think Jessica is Back will run huge for Magical Marty.
Switch has a huge chance as well.

[DaTruth]

I'm going with AU Miner, Joyful Victory, Plumania, and Seeking the Title. Plumania won't be anywhere near that ML. I'm not really sure about the F&M Sprint, but am leaning to Sara Louise (not crazy about Frankie being aboard) or Evening Jewel. Pace should be lively as Mena will likely send Champagne D'Oro in hopes of crossing over. The Juvy Filly Turf remains a mystery to me. I would love to hear the instructions TAP will give JV and Gomez in the Ladies Classic; those two runners might hookup at the 3/8 pole, take themselves and the chasers down, and set it up for a deep closer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Rightly So is in my bottom five if I ranked the entire field in the F&M Sprint.
Mike B is really losing it on his ML making skills....(See the fav in the Dirt Mile)

I also think Jessica is Back will run huge for Magical Marty.
Switch has a huge chance as well.

Rightly So is probably loose in there. I certainly would not put her in my bottom five in terms of most likely to win - maybe bottom five for most likely to run 3rd.

I agree though - this morning line is pretty bad both days.

Evening Jewel is my best bet on friday.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by arizonadave

Evening Jewel is my best bet on friday.

Can't believe she is listed at 15-1 I will be playing her too somewhere.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rightly So is probably loose in there. I certainly would not put her in my bottom five in terms of most likely to win - maybe bottom five for most likely to run 3rd.

I agree though - this morning line is pretty bad both days.

yeah maybe but, she won't have an insane track/speed bias to ride tomorrow...(fingers crossed)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Juvenile Turf

Utley might be a pretty important horse for me. Much like with Vale of York - I'm in love with the race he's exiting .. he only was a non-threatening 5th there though - but at least we got something from that race to come here.

His dam won her North American debut at a big price in the Del Mar Oaks - not sure that means a whole lot. I expect others imports to get more attention. It's going to be a deflating start if I don't get this one. The monster betting days so often seem to be ignited with a horse like this.

Sprint

There's really not a whole lot of pure one-way speed - and Pachito the Che has just a single race that wins this if he's loose - Cash Refund has just a single race that wins this if he's loose - Atta Boy Roy is the other one way speed capable of running big early numbers .. he's a little better sprinter than the other two - but I don't see a race on his form that makes me feel like he can win this.

However, with Big Drama drawing the rail - and taking into consideration that the three horses above are probably all going to get a little more aggressive ride because they're all longshots... I think there's probably enough pace in here to setup Warrior's Reward.


Turf Sprint

Just using Stardivinsky, Unzip Me, Quick Enough, Grand Adventure, and Tropical Storm in the multi wins.

I would have been pretty excited about Tropical Storm if he didn't draw the 13 hole.


Juvenile


Uncle Mo and Boys at Tusconva have both already exceeded the Beyer par for this race sprinting - it's merely now a matter of what they can do at a middle distance.

Jaycito is the only other horse who appears capable of winning. He's by a Belmont Stakes winner and his performance last time was outstanding.

Exacta box Jaycito over Uncle Mo and BatT


Mile

A simple exacta backwheel of Gio Ponti to the only rational contenders is a bet I've had a great deal of luck with on multiple occasions this year.

His win last time out was in a race just tailor made for him. You had 3 quality speeds. One hopeless speed that was going to go out and spoil the race for the 3 quality speeds... and basically the only two remaining horse were Gio Ponti in the hapless Society's Chairman.

Gio Ponti won what amounted to a match race over Society's Chairman in a final time slower than Provisio needed to edge out C. S Silk at the same distance on the same card. The three quality speeds in there where all compromised by the desperate and hopeless cheap speed.

The performance by Gio Ponti was so underwhelming - that it's got me scratching my head and wondering if he's good enough to run 2nd here - and if the bet is even worth it because he will attract money.

I'm going back to the well one more time. I'll be keying Gio Ponti in the 2nd slot - using only Paco Boy, The Usual QT, Sidney's Candy, and Goldikova in the top slot.

Dirt Mile

Crown of Thorns will probably go off as the post time favorite - even though his last win came in early Feb of 2008 and he's never started on dirt before.

I'm pretty upset that Girolamo isn't here and Vinyard Haven isn't in the Sprint. I like VH in the Sprint - I'm not sure he can get a mile. I love Girolamo here - but absolutely hate him in the Sprint.

Gayego ran the fastest route Beyer in the history of PID last time out. Successful Dan earned a 98 for 2nd place - and has come back with a pair of triple digit Beyers at Keeneland - including a Grade 2 score with a 105 Beyer last time out. Gayego took the Arkansas Derby in his first career dirt attempt.

I feel lost in this race.


Turf

The Euro's will dominate this race. It's inevitable.


Classic

Quality Road has several races that win this. His last two performances at Saratoga aren't among them however. I expect him to win.

Blame seems very certain to get a piece. He would rank among the all-time worst BC Classic winners ever if he's somehow able to pull this off...but a simple combo of QR running to his Saratoga form, Haynesfield getting softened up enough by QR and Zenyatta failing to adjust to the pace - would figure to make Blame the most likely winner.

I'm not going to use Zenyatta in the trifecta or superfecta. I don't like her chances of winning - especially in relation to her odds - and I hate her chances of running like 3rd or 4th - or maybe even 2nd to any horse outside of Quality Road.

If Zenyatta is able to run 12 to 15 lengths faster early than she's been running - and is still comfortable with going that fast early - and doesn't lose her final kick ... she'll probably absolutely blow the doors off of this field. Forget about a narrow win .. it will be a good margin. I'll believe it when I see it. I expect her to look way flatter than she's ever looked and hopefully she's unable to grind it out for 4th. She's a true wildcard at best in there - and is going to be bet like a horse who has several recent races on her form that put her in the winners circle with a repeat.

[Indian Charlie]

I'm surprised you aren't using Court Vision at all.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I thought Court Vision had a wonderful setup and perfect trip in the Woodbine Mile win. I liked him more than The Usual QT going into that race - but I actually thought that The Usual QT ran the better race of the two that day and the outcome didn't reflect that ... so that's basically why I'm not using Court Vision and will be using The Usual QT.

This is one of the funniest Breeders Cup's I ever remember from a handicapping and betting standpoint.

I'm so used to having such strong convictions for these races because I follow all regions and circuits closely all year long. It's not like you can have those strong convictions any more - mostly because of synthetic surfaces. Only a complete fool can have strong convictions about a single horse winning in some of these races.

It's actually A LOT easier to handicap these BC cards on synthetic. It's basically synthetic form versus turf form - the Euro's are a lot stronger - and toss the dirt horses - especially the ones with speed. It's dizzying when it's on dirt.

You got the 19% takeout on super's and pick 4's at Churchill - and a lot of the biggest and better bettors are really just regional guys - so sharpies can become dopes on days like this. It's going to be interesting to see how some of these races are bet.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I thought Court Vision had a wonderful setup and perfect trip in the Woodbine Mile win. I liked him more than The Usual QT going into that race - but I actually thought that The Usual QT ran the better race of the two that day and the outcome didn't reflect that ... so that's basically why I'm not using Court Vision and will be using The Usual QT.

This is one of the funniest Breeders Cup's I ever remember from a handicapping and betting standpoint.

I'm so used to having such strong convictions for these races because I follow all regions and circuits closely all year long. It's not like you can have those strong convictions any more - mostly because of synthetic surfaces. Only a complete fool can have strong convictions about a single horse winning in some of these races.

It's actually A LOT easier to handicap these BC cards on synthetic. It's basically synthetic form versus turf form - the Euro's are a lot stronger - and toss the dirt horses - especially the ones with speed. It's dizzying when it's on dirt.

You got the 19% takeout on super's and pick 4's at Churchill - and a lot of the biggest and better bettors are really just regional guys - so sharpies can become dopes on days like this. It's going to be interesting to see how some of these races are bet.

Yeah, agreed on Court Vision, but I figured you'd be using him underneath in exotics.

Obviously I like QT more.

[King Glorious]

Marathon
Alcomo
Bright Horizon
Gabriel's Hill
Precision Break

F/M Sprint
Sara Louise
Champagne d'Oro
Rightly So
Informed Decision

Juv Fillies
Awesome Feather
R Heat Lightning
Tell a Kelly
AZ Warrior

F/M Turf
Midday
Harmonious
Forever Together
Red Desire

Distaff
Life At Ten
Unrivaled Belle
Blind Luck
Havre de Grace

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Funny how Shirreffs is suppose to be so scared, but he takes a shot with Harmonious. She should of easily won that day at Del Mar. She was wet before that race. She's her own worst enemy. I don't know why she was that wide late in the race. Smith takes her way wide on the turn, and never got her to come back in. Like I said she was bothered by the crowd (or whatever,) and looked horrible 5 minutes before post. Still had plenty of run, but wasted it. She's talented. She's not limited by some figure. She's limited more by herself. Find out today if she's able to hang with these. Wouldn't just toss her out, but that's me. She's a bad ride away from being a three time Grade 1 winner.Those were 3 year olds, and we'll see if she can compete with these.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Rightly So is in my bottom five if I ranked the entire field in the F&M Sprint.
Mike B is really losing it on his ML making skills....(See the fav in the Dirt Mile)

I also think Jessica is Back will run huge for Magical Marty.
Switch has a huge chance as well.

I respect Magical Marty as much as anybody else, but Jessica doesn't seem to run her best away from Florida. In her 4 starts since Marty claimed and re-shod her, she has run outside of Florida 4 times with an uninspiring 4 0 1 2 record. Granted, they were tough races, but this one is tougher.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I respect Magical Marty as much as anybody else, but Jessica doesn't seem to run her best away from Florida. In her 4 starts since Marty claimed and re-shod her, she has run outside of Florida 4 times with an uninspiring 4 0 1 2 record. Granted, they were tough races, but this one is tougher.

I thought her 7F performance over this track vs. RA in the Fleur de Lis would almost win this, and she ran fine last time - the bias was too much to overcome.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I thought her 7F performance over this track vs. RA in the Fleur de Lis would almost win this, and she ran fine last time - the bias was too much to overcome.

Agreed.

I just think she runs her best races in Florida. If not for her Princess Rooney where she came from off the pace looking great (albeit at a shorter distance), it looked like the her best races are going a bit longer with her on the lead.

I'm real interested in how the track is playing today before I nail down this race.

[hockey2315]

Wolfson's obviously much more dangerous down there, and that's definitely my main concern with her. It's not like he's totally incapable of running a horse successfully out of town, so I'm hoping she shows up. They supplemented her and are selling her right after, so they must be looking for a big performance.

[ateamstupid]

I think Jessica is Back is hopeless in here.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Wolfson's obviously much more dangerous down there, and that's definitely my main concern with her. It's not like he's totally incapable of running a horse successfully out of town, so I'm hoping she shows up. They supplemented her and are selling her right after, so they must be looking for a big performance.

I think he is better when he ships to KY vs shipping to NY. I don't have the numbers to back that up though.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I think he is better when he ships to KY vs shipping to NY. I don't have the numbers to back that up though.

I'll look that up in a bit and post.