Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by sammy

you will notice that in none of my posts did i call anybody a name but i get called a Dumbass and a tard for expressing an opinion and that seems to be Ok.

At least you weren't called a retarded hen by this one jerk on here.

[letswastemoney]

Where would Haynesfield finish in a race against Switch and Rinterval?

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

It's a Player Haters Ball.

Coachie. You'll be happy and gratified to know that ROG hates me even more than you do. Pretty much rips me every week. His crowning glory was a few weeks back when he used his extensive investigative network to report to his listeners that I had no credibility. His evidence was that I misrepreseted my endowment to my then future wife. Even 60 minutes would have trouble unearthing such facts.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think this is some pretty amusing stuff.

At the 10:25 mark in the most recent episode (11/14) of the Roger Stein Show ... Stein and his two co-hosts cut apart audio of Beyer from NPR and attempt to blast away at him.

http://www.rogerstein.com/radio/archive2.asp


I laughed pretty hard about how Stein thought Zenyatta was back as far as she was because something was wrong with her. Zenyatta actually ran open lengths faster through the early stages of the 2010 BC Classic than she had in any of her prior races over the last two years.

Another fun line from Stein "Here's the thing I'd like Andy Beyer to do finally. Come forward with your tax returns for the last 15 years. Got 10 million - 15 million that you won from the races? We'll listen to you. Our mighty leader we will listen - and whatever you say - it will be gosphel. If you're broke .. Shhhhuuutttt uuppp"

You also have John Hardoon from the Ragozin Sheets on there - now, I understand that he's doing tout work in So. Cal and he's playing to his prospective customers .. but he's actually the one who I get the biggest laugh from of the three. It's only funnier when you consider the numbers he's using have Uncle Mo's Juvenile faster - and Goldikova's Mile considerably faster.

How do you figure that Zenyatta ran "open lengths faster in the early stages of the 2010 BC Classic than she has in any of her previous races in the last two years"? When they went into the clubhouse turn, she was a good 20 lengths back. She ran her first 3 furlongs in somewhere between :38 and :39. That's not even close to the fastest she's run in the early stages of her races the last two years. It's actually one of the slowest.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How do you figure that Zenyatta ran "open lengths faster in the early stages of the 2010 BC Classic than she has in any of her previous races in the last two years"? When they went into the clubhouse, she was a good 20 lengths back. She ran the half in somewhere between :50 and :51.

Zenyatta ran her half mile in 49.70 and her six furlongs in 1:13.50

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That's not even close to the fastest she's run in the early stages of her races the last two years. It's actually one of the slowest she's run early in a race

Facepalm.

My pace figures have her running much faster early on in the BC Classic than any race she's run in over the last two years. The Moss pace figures had her running faster early than any race she had run in over the last two years.

Did Ketucky Roses In May steal your login again? Saying "it's actually one of the slowest she's run early in the race" is a weapons grade stupid comment. Show me your pace figures .. point me to races in the last two years where she ran faster on them.

[Echo Farm]

Rank Trainer Name Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Earnings Win% Top3 Top3%

1,186 Roger M. Stein 159 8 16 21 $169,259 5% 45 28%

'nuf said

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Zenyatta ran her half mile in 49.70 and her six furlongs in 1:13.50

I don't understand. I thought Zenyatta was 75 lengths back after the first 1/4 and 120 lengths back after the half mile. That means for her to run a 49.70 the pace setters would have had to run like a 38 second half mile.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Zenyatta ran her half mile in 49.70 and her six furlongs in 1:13.50



Facepalm.

My pace figures have her running much faster early on in the BC Classic than any race she's run in over the last two years. The Moss pace figures had her running faster early than any race she had run in over the last two years.

Did Ketucky Roses In May steal your login again? Saying "it's actually one of the slowest she's run early in the race" is a weapons grade stupid comment. Show me your pace figures .. point me to races in the last two years where she ran faster on them.

We were talking about the earliest stages of the race. As you can see, I corrected my post before you made your post. As I said in the edited post, "When they went into the clubhouse turn, she was a good 20 lengths back. She ran her first 3 furlongs in somewhere between :38 and :39. That's not even close to the fastest she's run in the early stages of her races the last two years. It's actually one of the slowest."

In which races did she run her first 3 furlongs faster than :38 and change? She was going faster than that in the Lady's Secret, The Vanity, The Apple Blossom, The Santa Margarita, and almost all of her other races.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I don't understand. I thought Zenyatta was 75 lengths back after the first 1/4 and 120 lengths back after the half mile. That means for her to run a 49.70 the pace setters would have had to run like a 38 second half mile.

I think the official number was 16 lengths back after the first quarter mile, which is probably about right. But if you watch the pan shot, you will see she is much further back than that between calls. When they go into the clubhouse turn, she is a good 20 lengths back. They went the first 3 furlongs in about :35. She went :38 and change.

[slotdirt]

So Big Z ran her fourth 1/8th in about 10 seconds? I'm impressed.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

So Big Z ran her fourth 1/8th in about 10 seconds? I'm impressed.

Where do you come up with that? If she ran 3/8ths in :38 and change and she ran the half in :49 and change, that would be :11, not :10. I think it was more like :11 2/5 or :11 3/5. She was probably about 13-14 lengths back at the half. She made up about 6-7 lengths during that 1/8th of a mile.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

We were talking about the earliest stages of the race. As you can see, I corrected my post before you made your post. As I said in the edited post, "When they went into the clubhouse turn, she was a good 20 lengths back. She ran her first 3 furlongs in somewhere between :38 and :39. That's not even close to the fastest she's run in the early stages of her races the last two years. It's actually one of the slowest."

I don't make numbers to that point - but - you have to take into consideration that she was exiting brutally slow paced races - some of which over days when the racing surface was yielding much quicker times.

Mike Smith just let her settle away from the gate like he always does. The only difference is that she was in with MUCH quicker horses this time - and on a surface that is much less kind to closers. Smith started to push her along after a quarter mile to keep her from dropping 30 back - and she basically had to work hard for 8 furlongs.

The idea that Smith "waited too long" is the single most retarded thought a person can have. He literally moved 8 furlongs out on her - and Zenyatta, with all that momentum on Blame - never got past him after the wire.

Had Smith let her drop 30 lengths back early and get comfortable - who knows what would have happened. She would have made up an insane amount of ground late and exploded past the wire for sure - but it's anyones guess what the result would have been.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't make numbers to that point - but - you have to take into consideration that she was exiting brutally slow paced races - some of which over days when the racing surface was yielding much quicker times.

Mike Smith just let her settle away from the gate like he always does. The only difference is that she was in with MUCH quicker horses this time - and on a surface that is much less kind to closers. Smith started to push her along after a quarter mile to keep her from dropping 30 back - and she basically had to work hard for 8 furlongs.

The idea that Smith "waited too long" is the single most retarded thought a person can have. He literally moved 8 furlongs out on her - and Zenyatta, with all that momentum on Blame - never got past him after the wire.

Had Smith let her drop 30 lengths back early and get comfortable - who knows what would have happened. She would have made up an insane amount of ground late and exploded past the wire for sure - but it's anyones guess what the result would have been.

I agree with you 100% about Mike Smith. He didn't "wait too long". He didn't want to be that far back. She didn't want to run in the early going. It wasn't his fault. She looked to me like she didn't like getting hit with the dirt. The thing that people are forgetting is that her two races at Oaklawn were in a 5 horse field and a 6 horse field. In the 6 horse field, she had post 6. She took very little dirt in those races.

It is true that Zenyatta never got passed Blame on the gallop-out but I think there are good explanations as to why. Blame was much fitter than Zenyatta. Blame has been running 1 1/8 mile races and 1 ¼ mile races. Not only had Zenyatta not run 1 ¼ miles in a year, she hadn’t even run 1 1/8 miles for 5 months. Her last two races were both 1 1/16 miles. As good of a trainer as John Shireffs is (even if he’s the best trainer in the world at getting a horse ready for a big race), I still think that Zenyatta was at a disadvantage coming into a 1 ¼ mile race against the best horses in the world, coming out of 1 1/16 mile races. Don’t get me wrong, 1 ¼ miles is definitely her best distance but it’s hard to be 100% fit to run 1 ¼ miles when you haven’t even run 1 1/8 miles for 5 months.

In a normal race, all Zenyatta needs to do is run a strong final 3 furlongs. In this race, she was a good 20 lengths back (between calls) going into the clubhouse turn. This forced her to have to make a prolonged run for the final 7 furlongs rather than just the final 3 furlongs. I’ll bet you she ran her final 7 furlongs in about 1:23 1/5, which is unheard of. So she’s coming out of 1 1/16 mile races and she is forced to sprint her final 7 furlongs in a 1 ¼ mile race. It’s not surprising that she didn’t gallop out as strong as Blame.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I agree with you 100% about Mike Smith. He didn't "wait too long". He didn't want to be that far back. She didn't want to run in the early going. It wasn't his fault. She looked to me like she didn't like getting hit with the dirt. The thing that people are forgetting is that her two races at Oaklawn were in a 5 horse field and a 6 horse field. In the 6 horse field, she had post 6. She took very little dirt in those races.

It is true that Zenyatta never got passed Blame on the gallop-out but I think there are good explanations as to why. Blame was much fitter than Zenyatta. Blame has been running 1 1/8 mile races and 1 ¼ mile races. Not only had Zenyatta not run 1 ¼ miles in a year, she hadn’t even run 1 1/8 miles for 5 months. Her last two races were both 1 1/16 miles. As good of a trainer as John Shireffs is (even if he’s the best trainer in the world at getting a horse ready for a big race), I still think that Zenyatta was at a disadvantage coming into a 1 ¼ mile race against the best horses in the world, coming out of 1 1/16 mile races. Don’t get me wrong, 1 ¼ miles is definitely her best distance but it’s hard to be 100% fit to run 1 ¼ miles when you haven’t even run 1 1/8 miles for 5 months.

In a normal race, all Zenyatta needs to do is run a strong final 3 furlongs. In this race, she was a good 20 lengths back (between calls) going into the clubhouse turn. This forced her to have to make a prolonged run for the final 7 furlongs rather than just the final 3 furlongs. I’ll bet you she ran her final 7 furlongs in 1:22 and change, which is unheard of. So she’s coming out of 1 1/16 mile races and she is forced to sprint her final 7 furlongs in a 1 ¼ mile race. It’s not surprising that she didn’t gallop out as strong as Blame.

Yeah. I've been screaming it for about a year and a half. Her handlers have been freakin retards.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Zenyatta ran her final mile in 1:36.27 - final six furlongs in 1:12.59

[Indian Charlie]

Close nuff.

[Rupert Pupkin]

One of the most ridiculous arguments that Beyer makes is that Zenyatta is better on synthetic surfaces and that running on synthetic surfaces are the main reason that she was 19 for 19. It's totally the opposite. She almost lost a few different races because of the surface. On the synthetic surfaces, she's beating horses by a neck that she would be beating on the dirt by 5 lengths (more like 10 lengths at 1 1/4 miles).

Beyer argues that come-from-behinders do beter on synthetic tracks. It is true that synthetic surfaces favor come-from-behinders in general. That is true in general, but all come-from-behinderds are not the same. Some have a really quick turn of foot and have push-button acceleration. That type of come-from-behinder is going to have a big edge on synthetics. A big, long-striding horse (like Zenyatta) that doesn't have that push-button acceleration, is actually at a disadvantage on a synthetic track. She's at a disadvantage because she is sometimes forced to make up 2-3 lengths in the final 1/8th of a mile against a horse that can sprint home the final 1/8th. It's tough to make up 2-3 lengths on a horse that is sprinting home in :11 2/5. That is why she barely beat some horses that she would beat by 5 lengths on the dirt. On the dirt, you don't have to worry about somebody sprinting home in :11 2/5.

[Metal Man]

Roger is funny and Mike Wellman better yet when he comments about the Zenyatta haters.

Roger uses the hour show for his own bashing of the ones he loves!

Funny stuff.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

One of the most ridiculous arguments that Beyer makes is that Zenyatta is better on synthetic surfaces and that running on synthetic surfaces are the main reason that she was 19 for 19. It's totally the opposite. She almost lost a few different races because of the surface. On the synthetic surfaces, she's beating horses by a neck that she would be beating on the dirt by 5 lengths (more like 10 lengths at 1 1/4 miles).

Beyer argues that come-from-behinders do beter on synthetic tracks. It is true that synthetic surfaces favor come-from-behinders in general. That is true in general, but all come-from-behinderds are not the same. Some have a really quick turn of foot and have push-button acceleration. That type of come-from-behinder is going to have a big edge on synthetics. A big, long-striding horse (like Zenyatta) that doesn't have that push-button acceleration, is actually at a disadvantage on a synthetic track. She's at a disadvantage because she is sometimes forced to make up 2-3 lengths in the final 1/8th of a mile against a horse that can sprint home the final 1/8th. It's tough to make up 2-3 lengths on a horse that is sprinting home in :11 2/5. That is why she barely beat some horses that she would beat by 5 lengths on the dirt. On the dirt, you don't have to worry about somebody sprinting home in :11 2/5.

So in your opinion her record would have been the same if there was no such thing as synthetics? That seems like a pretty big stretch.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

So in your opinion her record would have been the same if there was no such thing as synthetics? That seems like a pretty big stretch.

It depends who she would have been running against. If she would have been running in 12 horse fields against grade I males, of course she would have got beaten plenty of times.

But against the horses she faced in California, I think she would have won by far bigger margins had the races been on dirt.