Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If they made a profit on the race - I doubt they'll feel like the result proved them wrong.

Either way - she was a VERY poor even money shot who happened to run fine.

You have to bet against even money shots who are wildcards. The bookies in Europe almost got smoked at 7/2 on her .. but I'm not so sure 7/2 is even a fair price on a wildcard.

If you go by results - even the very best handicappers and bettors are going to be proven wrong A LOT. They're flesh and blood animals with a human on their back. If a horse improves one second over the distance of a mile - that's six lengths. Most races are so closely matched that the way they're run will ultimately determine who wins.

I do agree with you that she was a very poor even-money shot. I would have made her the favorite but I made her about 5-2 or 3-1.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

If Zenyatta would have run in the allowance race at Del Mar where they went the half in :45 3/5, do you think she would have been 35 lengths back? Is that what you are saying? If you honestly think that, I give up.

For a guy with an IQ well over 70 - you are truly hopeless.

No, Zenyatta would have not been 37 lengths back in that allowance race because Smith wouldn't have allowed her to race that far back. She would have been a long, long way back though.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

In the BC Classic, there was clearly something bothering her in the early going of the race.

Either you're confusing Zenyatta with Life At Ten in the Ladies Classic - or you're watching Zenyatta get outrun by much faster horses than her.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Just watch the way she's moving. She's never looked like that before. She bobbled at least once or twice. You ask Cannon Shell or any trainer out there if that horse looked comfortable in the early going of that race

OK Cannon Shell or any trainer out there - did she look comfortable while she was getting outsprinted by MUCH faster horses in a race where the pace totally collapsed?

Also, did Ice Box and Make Music For Me look comfortable in the Kentucky Derby when they closed from 24 lengths and 28 lengths back to finish 2nd and 4th in a similar pace meltdown?

[Dahoss]

With all due respect DrugS, Joanied at PA could tell from a still picture that Zenyatta wasn't happy early. The truly enlightened can pick up on stuff like that.

[Cannon Shell]

I dont understand why Rupert and others are claiming that some thing was wrong with her. Was whatever was wrong with her get cured by the time she hit the backstretch? She looked like a 6 year old mare who didnt warm up properly for a race on a cold night against much faster horses than she is used to running against.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

With all due respect DrugS, Joanied at PA could tell from a still picture that Zenyatta wasn't happy early. The truly enlightened can pick up on stuff like that.

Over/under 5.5 emoticons used in her post:

Over: -200
Under: +180

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I dont understand why Rupert and others are claiming that some thing was wrong with her. Was whatever was wrong with her get cured by the time she hit the backstretch? She looked like a 6 year old mare who didnt warm up properly for a race on a cold night against much faster horses than she is used to running against.

I agree with you. As you said, "She looked like a 6 year old mare who didnt warm up properly for a race on a cold night against much faster horses than she's used to running against." I agree with you 100%.

There are plenty of horses that take a while to get warmed up. They're a little stiff when they first come on the track but after they warm up for a while, they look ok. As you said, she didn't warm up. That is probably why she looked so stiff and sluggish in the early stages of the race. This, along with the dirt in her face, is why she was 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs instead of 14 lengths back.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

With all due respect DrugS, Joanied at PA could tell from a still picture that Zenyatta wasn't happy early. The truly enlightened can pick up on stuff like that.

Are you saying that horsemen can't tell when a horse isn't travelling well?

[Dahoss]

The under felt like a bigger longshot than that.

She made up for it by saying she hopes Frankel the horse comes over next year to run in the stakes race (San Gorgonio) that they renamed for Bobby Frankel. He'll need a sex change to be eligible but they are doing amazing things with medicine nowadays, so we'll see.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

For a guy with an IQ well over 70 - you are truly hopeless.

No, Zenyatta would have not been 37 lengths back in that allowance race because Smith wouldn't have allowed her to race that far back. She would have been a long, long way back though.




Either you're confusing Zenyatta with Life At Ten in the Ladies Classic - or you're watching Zenyatta get outrun by much faster horses than her.




OK Cannon Shell or any trainer out there - did she look comfortable while she was getting outsprinted by MUCH faster horses in a race where the pace totally collapsed?

Also, did Ice Box and Make Music For Me look comfortable in the Kentucky Derby when they closed from 24 lengths and 28 lengths back to finish 2nd and 4th in a similar pace meltdown?

How do you explain her last race on dirt, the race at Oaklawn? Do you claim that track was much faster than Churchill? They ran the first 3 furlongs in :36, give or take 1/5th of a second. Zenyatta was 8 lenghts back. But when they run :35 at Churchill (mainly on a straightaway), she is 20 lengths back.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Are you saying that horsemen can't tell when a horse isn't travelling well?

Seriously?

No, I'm saying an idiot on the internet can't tell if a horse is happy or not by a still picture.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Seriously?

No, I'm saying an idiot on the internet can't tell if a horse is happy or not by a still picture.

In the case of the BC Classic, we have more than a still picture.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

In the case of the BC Classic, we have more than a still picture.

Did you read the post you responded to at all? I'm talking about a still picture and someone saying she looked unhappy in the picture. That's it.

It's been over a week now. Time to get over it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

There are plenty of horses that take a while to get warmed up. They're a little stiff when they first come on the track but after they warm up for a while, they look ok. As you said, she didn't warm up. That is probably why she looked so stiff and sluggish in the early stages of the race. This, along with the dirt in her face, is why she was 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs instead of 14 lengths back.

So why was the stalker Etched, who had never been more than 2 lengths off the pace in any previous start, 8 lengths from the lead in the early stages despite this being his first start beyond 9f?

Zenyatta was about 12-15 lengths behind him early.

Seems more likely that the "out of the ordinary" was going on up front, not at the rear.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

So why was the stalker Etched, who had never been more than 2 lengths off the pace in any previous start, 8 lengths from the lead in the early stages despite this being his first start beyond 9f?

Zenyatta was about 12-15 lengths behind him early.

Seems more likely that the "out of the ordinary" was going on up front, not at the rear.

Etched was only 4 lengths back after a quarter mile. He was about 5 lengths back after 3 furlongs. It looked like he was in a good spot. I think Alan Garcia saw that you had 4 horses going at a pretty good clip up front, so he figured he would stay in the clear in 5th.

Just to be clear about my position with regards to Zenyatta, I don't think she was that much further back after a half-mile than she should have been or than I would have expected. She was maybe 2-3 lengths further back than I would have expected, but that's about it. That wasn't what really hurt her. What really hurt her was being 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs. That hurt her because Mike Smith had to use her to get her back in the race. That really hurt her because she ended up having to sprint the final 7 furlongs of the race. To say that's hard to do is an understatement.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're making a comparison using horses with little to no or horrible dirt form. Would Zenyatta dispose of Rinterval on dirt? Of course she would because Rinterval likely wouldn't take to dirt. She's never tried it.

Like Dahoss said, throw Zenyatta into a dirt race against a dirt horse like Hystericalady, or Life at Ten in this year's Del Cap where she walked on the lead, and it's going to be dicey in the last quarter.

The song about Zenyatta being better on dirt has been sung. Unfortunately her connections disagreed or else they might have tried her more on it.

Would Zenyatta have beaten Icon Project on the dirt in some of those races last year?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Would Zenyatta have beaten Icon Project on the dirt in some of those races last year?

Not in the Personal Ensign in my opinion. She would have never run against her in the New York Stakes obviously because it was scheduled for turf and was run over a quagmire but it would have taken a huge effort to beat her that day at Saratoga.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That hurt her because Mike Smith had to use her to get her back in the race. That really hurt her because she ended up having to sprint the final 7 furlongs of the race. To say that's hard to do is an understatement.

It seemed to me that two races were taking place at once. Maybe in the initial stages Zenyatta got left for dead (she broke a bit flat anyways), but once the other jocks realized the ridiculous duel going on up front, they all seemed to backed off. If they did purposefully back off (and you said yourself that Etched settled further back after 3 furlongs), then the second flight simply came back to Zenyatta, as opposed to her sprinting the final 7f in some herculean effort.

Essentially, the first 4 were on their own and ultimately immaterial, as they were swallowed up immediately without resistance. Etched was the first to hit the front and make a serious move, and Zenyatta was never more than 14 lengths behind him early and easily within striking distance of him throughout the backstretch.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

It seemed to me that two races were taking place at once. Maybe in the initial stages Zenyatta got left for dead (she broke a bit flat anyways), but once the other jocks realized the ridiculous duel going on up front, they all seemed to backed off. If they did purposefully back off (and you said yourself that Etched settled further back after 3 furlongs), then the second flight simply came back to Zenyatta, as opposed to her sprinting the final 7f in some herculean effort.

Essentially, the first 4 were on their own and ultimately immaterial, as they were swallowed up immediately without resistance. Etched was the first to hit the front and make a serious move, and Zenyatta was never more than 14 lengths behind him early and easily within striking distance of him throughout the backstretch.

Zenyatta did break flat-footed but that's not unusual for her. She pretty much always breaks like that.

With regard to whether she was sprinting home or the others were coming back to her, it was clearly a combination of both. The front runners totally collapsed. There's no doubt about that. But Zenyatta did sprint home. If you do the math, she ran her final 7 furlongs in about 1:23 1/5. That is spectacular.

[Rupert Pupkin]

I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I assume you guys know that Mike Smith admitted that he contemplated pulling Zenyatta up early in the race. I think he knows the horse pretty well. If she felt like her normal self and was travelling fine, do you think he would have been thinking about pulling her up?

Just like Joel Rosario considered pulling up Make Music For Me after he was 20th and 28 lengths behind after just a quarter mile in the Kentucky Derby...before he closed to finish 4th and will now go down in history as the single worst horse to ever make a Superfecta ticket in the KY Derby.




Ice Box was 24 back - I'm shocked Lezcano didn't come out and say he almost pulled him up. If only a Horse of the Year vote was on the line for Ice Box and Make Music For Me might we be treated to such stupidity.

You really are trying to be a wet brained tard. It would be a lot more amusing if you were some deranged clueless pretty poney woman sprinkling each one of your posts with about 7 emotocons.

I assume you know that I contemplated playing a $100 straight Pick 6 of Chamberlain Bridge - Uncle Mo - Goldikova - Dakota Phone - Dangerous Midge - Blame ... I think this proves that I should win an eclipse award for Handicapper of the Year.