Where did the hidden $99K in the Ky Derby Future Wager pools come from?!!

[Dunbar]

I watched the Win and Exacta pools as the Ky Derby Future Wager closed yesterday (on TwinSpires.com). A few minutes after 6pm EST, when the pools had clearly stopped updating, I took screen shots of the two pools. At that time there was $403,515 in the Win pool and $90,814 in the Exacta pool.

Today I was surprised to read that there was $480,375 in the Win pool and $112,117 in the Exacta pool. Where was that new $77K of the Win pool hiding? How about the new $22K of the exacta pool?

I'm not talking about late money here. I'm talking about money that hadn't shown up several minutes after the pool closed.

Another question. Why aren't the exacta will-pays showing on the Kentucky Derby.com website? Does anyone have access to the exacta will-pays? I made a comment in a different thread based on what I THOUGHT were the final will-pays, but the mysterious $22K of pool money may have changed those payouts.

btw, I'm pretty sure drf.com is wrong saying, "The lowest $2 will-pay for a Pool 1 exacta is the combination of the field over Uncle Mo (Nos. 24-23), worth $27." On my screensave, Field/Uncle Mo is $51. But Uncle Mo/Field is $27. They had it reversed.

--Dunbar

[jwkniska]

http://cdi-drupal.s3.amazonaws.com/s...1P1exactas.pdf

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by jwkniska

http://cdi-drupal.s3.amazonaws.com/s...1P1exactas.pdf

Thanks for posting that!

I checked the 46 prices for Field on top and Uncle Mo on top. They were identical to my screen shot, except for a $1 difference in the Field/DecisiveMoment exacta. ($583 on my screensave, $584 on the link.)

I also checked the 23 exactas with the #1 on top. Most were the same, but there were a few $1-$2 differences, which is tiny for will-pays in the thousands.

If there was really a $22K difference in the amount in the pool between my screen save after the end of betting and the official final figs, there would have been lots of significant individual exacta price differences between my screen save and the numbers in the link. It's really hard to understand what kind of error would explain the discrepancy in pool size.

In other words, the individual exacta prices I captured at the end of betting seem to be accurate to within $1-$2, but there was a $22K discrepancy in the total pool size. You would think they'd have to have an accurate estimate of the total exacta pool in order to calculate the will-pays. But somehow the will-pays were accurate anyway.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I watched the Win and Exacta pools as the Ky Derby Future Wager closed yesterday (on TwinSpires.com). A few minutes after 6pm EST, when the pools had clearly stopped updating, I took screen shots of the two pools. At that time there was $403,515 in the Win pool and $90,814 in the Exacta pool.

Today I was surprised to read that there was $480,375 in the Win pool and $112,117 in the Exacta pool. Where was that new $77K of the Win pool hiding? How about the new $22K of the exacta pool?

I'm not talking about late money here. I'm talking about money that hadn't shown up several minutes after the pool closed.

...

Okay, I've solved the mystery and it's pretty damn weird! TwinSpires was displaying the Pool size AFTER takeout! $403,515 is precisely 84% of $480,375. And $90,814 is 81% of $112,117.

Also, when they showed the amount bet on each horse in the Win pool, they were actually showing 84% of the amount bet on each horse. For example, at the end of betting TwinSpires showed Uncle Mo with $72,532 in bets. But really Uncle Mo had $72,532/0.84 = $86,348 bet on him.

Because they reduced all the figs by 16%, the odds calculation produces the same number. But I'm guessing that there is some roundoff difference that explains the $1-$2 discrepancy I mentioned above in some of the "final" exactas.

It's pretty clearly a goof-up, but it had minimal consequences. Here's the only negative consequence I can think of: Big bettors need to know the pool size in order to guage how much their bets will move the odds. In this case, they were left underestimating how much they could bet, because TwinSpires was displaying an exacta pool figure that was 19% smaller than the actual exacta pool, and a win pool figure that was 16% smaller than the actual win pool.

--Dunbar