4/9: Aqueduct (P4); Keeneland (P5), Santa Anita (P6)

[Kasept]

Blase' start to the Keeneland stand Friday with two beats in the five attempts. Clever Margolis slipped Homerun Berti through over the synthetic in the 7th, while Shug captured the Transylvania with Arch Support over my 13-2 try Great Mills. Hope you did OK. Big day Saturday with stakes galore, but after capping, I felt an absence of mystery to the day's features. Will be fun of course with Uncle Mo headlining the day at Aqueduct and Derby Trail troika, some good P5 races at Keeneland including the Ashland and a P6 carryover at Santa Anita thanks to Friday $120 horse! Enjoy the day... I'm heading to the Big A!


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 62nd Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

#2 R Holiday Mood has to improve considerably to best ALL of the 4 listed below. I suppose out of fear of Team Pletcher it might make some sense to use her in a back-up ticket, but she is a classic underlay/bet-against in this spot..

Most Likely: #3 Her Smile 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Ava K 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Hot Summer 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #7 Royal Sighting 5-1 7th


8th: 51st Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

HRTV's Rich Migliore said on ATR Friday that he thought Buffum looked in good flesh this week in NY. You can show some respect, but he's hard to accept at 5-2 off the trip to the desert. J J's Lucky Train is the kind of horse that regularly wins this event. Dr Disco is a reported SCR to run in Sunday's NY-bred stake..

Most Likely: #3 J J's Lucky Train 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #8 Royal Currier 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Buffum 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Justin Phillip 5-1 3rd


9th: 111th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Super has been ADDED with scratch of Calibrachoa. On the subject of Calibrachoa, remember that speed for seven eighths (7f) is completely different than speed for three quarters (6f). Horses that have form at two turns and are turning back to 7f from classy routes are historically dangerous at this trip..

Most Likely: #7 Apriority 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Morning Line 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #6 Yawanna Twist 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Sunrise Smarty 15-1 6th


10th: 87th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

You may wish to feel differently about Uncle Mo four weeks from now against 19 at Churchill Downs, but in this spot, anything other than a decisive romp by him would be shocking..

Most Likely: #5 Uncle Mo 1-5 3rd
Next Best: #2 Toby's Corner 8-1 WON ($19.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Arthur's Tale 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Norman Asbjornson 15-1 4th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-5-7
8: 1-2-3-7-8
9: 7-10
10: 5

5x5x2x1 = $50



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Silver Rock 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #3 Screenplay 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Schwartzbewithyou 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Avenstoke 6-1 7th


7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Irish Frankie 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Jo the Cat 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Totemtale 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Kingpost 8-1 WON ($9.00)


8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very slippery group..

Best Value: #6 Ritual 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Versailles Road 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Let's Do It 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #4 King's Command 8-1 2nd


9th: 74th Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

She wouldn't have caught my eye necessarily, but Margolis winning Friday with Homerun Berti (7-1) first time synthetic got my attention. Bouquet Booth broke her maiden this surface going 7f, will be a long number and has shown some tactical options. If you want to go against the favorites, she, Wyomia and Delightful Mary are the ones with which you can have fun..

Best Value: #1 Bouquet Booth 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Dancinginherdreams 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Wyomia 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Delightful Mary 5-1 7th


10th: S/ALW, 4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Afleet's Secret 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Cold Feet 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Dancing Don 15-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Cape Hatchet 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Perfect Casting 6-1 4th


<$50 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-3-6
7: 7
8: 1-6
9: 1-3-4-5-6-9
10: 2-8

4x1x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 1-3-4-5-6-9
10: 1-2-5-6-8-11

1x4x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72



HAWTHORNE


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 54th Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

OK as a betting affair. Sad as Derby 'prep'..

Best Value: #6 Sour 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Watch Me Go 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Joe Vann 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #8 Zoebear 8-1 2nd



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: 37th Las Cienegas H. (G3), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Unzip Me 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Tanda 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Seperate Forest 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #7 La Nez 10-1 3rd


6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$54k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #4 Off the Wall 5-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #8 Blake 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Position A 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Gallatin's Run 9-2 5th


7th: 52nd Arcadia (G2), 4yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Caracortado 6-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Jeranimo 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Liberian Freighter 10-1 WON ($20.40)
Super Add: #4 Blue Chagall 8-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 FIRST DUDE 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Coo Cachoo 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Kevlar Kid 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Erbeia 20-1 5th


9th: 31st Providencia (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super0

Most Likely: #7 Cambina 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #3 Wave of Applause 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Wallstreeter 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Whisper Louise 6-1 2nd


10th: 74th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Nice event has taken dents in both fenders with exodus of favorites Premier Pegasus and Jaycito. Pace scenario up front doesn't change though with Comma to the Top the horse to chase and pass late. If you haven't seen it, here is Jon White's revised Morning Line:

1. Offlee Wild Boys 30-1
2. Indian Winter 8-1
3. Mr. Commons 4-1
4. Silver Medallion 5-2
5. Comma to the Top 7-2
6. Midnight Interlude 20-1
7. Quail Hill 30-1
8. SCR
9. Anthony’s Cross 3-1
10. Bench Points 8-1
11. SCR

Anthony's Cross is an underlay that needs improvement to beat several here. The fun price and logical horse to key off is Indian Winter at 8-1..

Best Value: #2 Indian Winter 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Comma to the Top 7-2 2nd
Exotoics Use: #4 Silver Medallion 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Mr. Commons 4-1 3rd


10th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Hey Maria 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #10 One Bad Texter 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Black Wildcat 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Warren's in to it 15-1 8th
Super Add: #14 Lily Amore 8-1 3rd


<$200 P6 Play:

6: 4-8
7: 1-6
8: 5
9: 3-5-7-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7-9
11: 13

2x2x1x4x6x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 5
9: 3-5-7-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7-9
11: 9-10-13


1x4x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 ($72 for $1)

Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

KEE SCR/CHG'S

HAW SCR/CHG'S

[MaTH716]

Wow Steve, I know you couldn't close the deal, but you still had a very nice day cappin.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Wow Steve, I know you couldn't close the deal, but you still had a very nice day cappin.

Thanks Matt. It was one of those exceedingly quirky days. I may not have expressed it real well because I had to get on the road to Aqueduct and didn't have time, but I tried to indicate my uneasiness towards how to approach it. 'Big day Saturday with stakes galore, but after capping, I felt an absence of mystery to the day's features.' It was the kind of day where even if you thought about being contrary, there wasn't enough evidentiary support to justify backing some of the offbeat thoughts you might have had too enthusiastically.

You didn't want to to spend too much going against Uncle Mo in the P4, and needed to be fairly widespread in the earlier stakes to assure getting to the anchor leg.. You knew Dancinginherdreams and Kathmanblu were rotten favorites and had to be bet against in the Ashland, but couldn't necessarily embrace anyone with supreme confidence.. The Illinois Derby was a silly race.. Etc. There were some decent opportunities, and I thought I had some solid views and took advantage in a couple places. I hope everybody did OK...

[skippy3481]

Steve just wanted to say thank you for posting your picks. Regardless whether you hit a pick-4 for 10k or you lose every race, it helps to give me a diffrent perspective and to pick up horses i may never have considered