Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Blue Grass was a classic Poly prep.

Last week - Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch was 2.5% (fair vale in the 40/1 to 50/1 range) to win the Kentucky Derby four weeks in advance of the race - while still needing to run one more time and pad his Graded earnings - he was an overlay at 25/1 today and made the best of a very good pace setup. Nehro - once again was wisely ridden - and once again finished up very strongly to finish 2nd.

The Factor simply proved rating tactics won't work for him. He's 1/5 to be the pacesetter in the KY Derby if he goes. I'm probably being too harsh dropping his win chances to 6.5% - but it's no lock that he's going to run in the KY Derby. His chances of winning may be 6.5% - but his chances of running 3rd and 4th are virtually zero.

A strong underlay coming into this week - The Factor might creep into overlay territory by race time. There have been so many pace collapses in the KY Derby - that we're due for a year when riders overreact and rate early on. Certainly, all other riders realize that going with a non-rated The Factor would be complete and utter suicide. His Rebel certainly proved he can stay when allowed loose on an unpressured lead.

Elite Alex's reportedly sensational workout in blinkers did not translate into anything good on the racetrack. It was easily the worst performance of his career - he barely beat Brethren.


Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (19.25%)
Dialed In (16.25%)
Archarcharch (8.25%)
Nehro (8%)
Midnight Interlude (8%)
The Factor (6.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (6.25%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Jaycito (2.25%)
Pants on Fire (1.80%)
Brilliant Speed (1.25%)
Santiva (1%)
Decisive Moment (1%)
Animal Kingdom (1%)
Stay Thirsty (0.50%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Sway Away (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Bretheren (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)


The Rest: 2.45%

[randallscott35]

I highly doubt Uncle Mo will be in the gate.

[paulo537]

You can get Mo at 6/1 or more offshore. Good luck with that. I make it 3/1 against him making the Derby.

The Factor displaced, I heard. He's 10/1 to make the Derby.

So I read here the out of the money 4/5 was a "strong underlay" and the 25/1 winner was an (well, of course) overlay.

Easy game.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by paulo537

You can get Mo at 6/1 or more offshore. Good luck with that. I make it 3/1 against him making the Derby.

The Factor displaced, I heard. He's 10/1 to make the Derby.

So I read here the out of the money 4/5 was a "strong underlay" and the 25/1 winner was an (well, of course) overlay.

Easy game.

I'll take that bet.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Blue Grass was a classic Poly prep.

Last week - Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch was 2.5% (fair vale in the 40/1 to 50/1 range) to win the Kentucky Derby four weeks in advance of the race - while still needing to run one more time and pad his Graded earnings - he was an overlay at 25/1 today and made the best of a very good pace setup. Nehro - once again was wisely ridden - and once again finished up very strongly to finish 2nd.

The Factor simply proved rating tactics won't work for him. He's 1/5 to be the pacesetter in the KY Derby if he goes. I'm probably being too harsh dropping his win chances to 6.5% - but it's no lock that he's going to run in the KY Derby. His chances of winning may be 6.5% - but his chances of running 3rd and 4th are virtually zero.

A strong underlay coming into this week - The Factor might creep into overlay territory by race time. There have been so many pace collapses in the KY Derby - that we're due for a year when riders overreact and rate early on. Certainly, all other riders realize that going with a non-rated The Factor would be complete and utter suicide. His Rebel certainly proved he can stay when allowed loose on an unpressured lead.

Elite Alex's reportedly sensational workout in blinkers did not translate into anything good on the racetrack. It was easily the worst performance of his career - he barely beat Brethren.


Updated Chances of winning:


Uncle Mo (19.25%)
Dialed In (16.25%)
Archarcharch (8.25%)
Nehro (8%)
Midnight Interlude (8%)
The Factor (6.50%)
Mucho Macho Man (6.25%)
Toby's Corner (4.50%)
Silver Medallion (4%)
Soldat (3.5%)
Sheckleford (3.25%)
Jaycito (2.25%)
Pants on Fire (1.80%)
Brilliant Speed (1.25%)
Santiva (1%)
Decisive Moment (1%)
Animal Kingdom (1%)
Stay Thirsty (0.50%)
Twice the Appeal (0.25%)
Sway Away (0.25%)
Joe Vann (0.25%)
Bretheren (0.25%)
Watch Me Go (0.05%)


The Rest: 2.45%

2000/1 on watch me go? Has he even run since Tampa?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by paulo537

So I read here the out of the money 4/5 was a "strong underlay" and the 25/1 winner was an (well, of course) overlay.

Easy game.

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

2000/1 on watch me go? Has he even run since Tampa?

Yes - he was drubbed in the Ill Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'll take that bet.

He's talking out of his ass.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There have been so many pace collapses in the KY Derby - that we're due for a year when riders overreact and rate early on. Certainly, all other riders realize that going with a non-rated The Factor would be complete and utter suicide. His Rebel certainly proved he can stay when allowed loose on an unpressured lead.

Granted he may not be as fast early as The Factor, but don't you think that the above is likely the plan for Soldat (given his failed "rating" attempt) as well? Not to mention Shackelford and Comma To The Top.

I don't think those guys could take back, even if they wanted to.

What was the last wire job in the Derby, War Emblem? Was there any real speed in there that year to begin with? I recall Eddie D. prompting the pace with Perfect Drift, a horse was ridden well off the pace early in his preps.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

yeah ok, but you have uncle mo at 19.25%.....what races have you been watching???what do you base the 19.25% on????? his race in november?? or the two most recent efforts?? two efforts that will go a long way to winning the derby.....but the "people" are retarded.....

[justindew]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

24/1 is 4%.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by justindew

24/1 is 4%.

A little gift from me to you: http://www.calculator.com/calcs/calc_sci.html

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

A little gift from me to you: http://www.calculator.com/calcs/calc_sci.html

LOL

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yeah ok, but you have uncle mo at 19.25%.....what races have you been watching???what do you base the 19.25% on????? his race in november?? or the two most recent efforts??

A repeat of his race in November - over the CD tracks - will easily win the KY Derby - and his two performances this year are about as good as the last two performances of any horse in this crop pointing for the KY Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Granted he may not be as fast early as The Factor, but don't you think that the above is likely the plan for Soldat (given his failed "rating" attempt) as well? Not to mention Shackelford and Comma To The Top.

I don't think those guys could take back, even if they wanted to.

You're probably right. I can't say I disagree - but if any of those go with The Factor - they will be baked.

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What was the last wire job in the Derby, War Emblem? Was there any real speed in there that year to begin with? I recall Eddie D. prompting the pace with Perfect Drift, a horse was ridden well off the pace early in his preps.

Here are the past KY Derby leaders after 8fs - and the figure they needed to run to find themselves there (translated through Moss Pace figures) ....

2010: Noble's Promise (109 Beyer)
2009: Join In The Dance (98 Beyer)
2008: Big Brown (104 Beyer)
2007: Hard Spun (104 Beyer)
2006: Barbaro (98 Beyer)
2005: High Fly (109 Beyer)
2004: Lion Heart (112 Beyer)
2003: Peace Rules (106 Beyer)
2002: War Emblem (101 Beyer)
2001: Congaree (112 Beyer)
2000: Captain Steve (104 Beyer)
1999: Cat Thief (104 Beyer)
1998: Real Quiet (117 Beyer)
1997: Free House (106 Beyer)
1996: Unbridled's Song (115 Beyer)
1995: Serena's Song (106 Beyer)


Only 3 times out of 16 years (18.75%) did a horse manage to lead the Derby after a mile while running a figure of 101 or less to that point ....

In order for a horse like The Factor or Soldat to win the Derby - they need two things to happen imo.

* They need to first be loose on an unpressured lead through the opening half mile

* They need to get to the quarter pole running a figure no faster than a 101 or less

Considering the chances of the latter is about 18% ... if they have a 50% chance of pulling off the former ... it gives them about a 9% chance of winning IMO.

Obviously Soldat will have a harder time getting loose on an uncontested lead than The Factor would - for the simple fact that he doesn't have nearly as much early zip.

[analyizethis]

So now that Elite Alex is out of derby where does Borel go? In the last four years he is finished first three times and third once, I can't image he will sit on he bench.

[NTamm1215]

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I was thinking Baffert and Jaycito for Borel. Especially with Baffert naming him on Misremembered.

It's impossible to ignore Borel's stats over that dirt track - especially from an ROI standpoint. They defy logic and reason so much ... that I still have crazy thoughts sometimes about if he has a device or if he's got someone firming up a path litterally right on top of the rail for him. When other guys are "inside" or "racing along the rail" - they don't seem to be quite as far inside as he gets.

When that track is wet - there are many days when the inside was bad for everyone else but great for him - Derby day last year for instance. Almost everything he kept on top of the rail ran huge that day - but otherwise, the four and five paths seemed like the ideal place to be.

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Since when is a horse that's 40/1 to win the Kentucky Derby 4 full weeks out - not an overlay at 25/1 in the Arkansas Derby?

Sometimes I seriously think some of you people are hopelessly retarded.

25/1 is a 4% chance of winning.

I see.

Your top two have, as you call it, a 35% chance of winning, right?

Neither of them has a greater than 50% chance of running.

I've seen people shoehorned into handicapping by BSFs before but really this is amazing.

I'll save the return insult and not label you a hopeless Mo-tard, but it was a bit of a tough decision.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Where Calvin Borel lands will obviously affect the wagering as many are just going to move up whomever he rides and rightfully so.

If Comma to the Top goes and Nakatani keeps that mount then I can see Borel getting on Nehro. With Nehro already shaping up as a ridiculous underlay because of his monstrous close into a wickedly hot pace in the Arkansas Derby his odds will likely go down even more.

Twice the Appeal will more than likely not be ridden by Christian Santiago Reyes in the Derby. It's tough to say Borel will take a mount like this, but we all know what happened in 2007.

Dominguez is likely to keep the mount on Stay Thirsty if he gets in, so there are no Todd Pletcher trainees that Borel could jump on at the last minute.

I understand trainers staying loyal to jockeys, and nothing against Eddie Castro, but if I owned Toby's Corner I'd let Graham Motion know that Calvin Borel might be in the jockeys' room this year and to do something about that.

Stay Thirsty is on the bubble in terms of getting into the Derby field? I thought he'd kind of locked that up after the Gotham.