|
|
 |
|
#1
10-28-2006, 06:28 PM
|
||||
|
||||
Choosing a winner !!!
Handicapping Tools
I use the following list so to speak!! 1. Pedigree(I definitely pay attention to this prior to any other aspect, my favorite Sire are the horses I have seen in action, naturally I rout/will rout generations of Point Given, Fu Peg, Aptitude, Empire Maker, Charismatic, Mineshaft, AP Indy!!! Broodmare is equally important, just doesnt get much attention. 2. Past performance (I don’t pay much attention to speed figures, though number do help) 3. Trainer (GO Bobby Frankle) 4. Race day track condition (Poly Track is going to negate a lot of uncertainties) 5. Jockey (I loved Bailey!!!) 6. Owner (Michael Tabor, Coolmore, John Oxley, Sheikh MO, Sheik Hamdan, Darley, Godolphin, Gainsway, Juddmonte, Ramseys, Late Bob & Beverley Lewis!!doesn’t matter they all take good care of the animals) Any takes?? 
|
|
#2
10-28-2006, 08:08 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
1) If the formula is working for you.....use it. If it is not.....get rid of it. 2) Is this in order of importance because if it is....how can pedigree be #1???? Pedigree can be good for betting 2yo and it can sometimes be helpful in guessing how far a horse will go or if they wil like the turf.....but I sure would not put it #1. 3) Who cares about the owner?
|
|
#3
10-28-2006, 08:11 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
is this a joke?
please tell me pedigree is not the first thing you look at or that you place more emphasis on the pedigree of a horse than you do on his form lines. pedigree is a useful tool if you are trying to determine what a horse might do when trying something for the first time. once they have run at the given condition in question, its kind of meaningless information. but, whatever is profitable for you.................. Repent
|
|
#4
10-28-2006, 08:15 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
btw,
for what it is worth, I first try to determine the pace scenario and then try to come to some conclusions about the class level of the horses in the race and how they compare to their competitors. thats where I start. Repent
|
|
#5
10-28-2006, 09:03 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#6
10-28-2006, 09:05 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
no worries. Im not a great handicapper either and I handicap 365 days a year. Repent
|
|
#7
10-28-2006, 09:12 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
I'll throw my hat into the ring as a not great handicapper. Heres usually how i cap
Find pace scenerio. Group runners into pace classes (front runners, stalkers,deep closers) Rank Horses in each class Determine(due to pace scenerio) which group is likely to be in front at the line. Then I typically run through a couple of scenerios and see what happens. of course it sounds so easy, but so its so hard in real life. The point is to have fun. As long as your having fun, do what you do, and don't let anyone change your mind. If you ever want help though, many people here would be glad to offer it.
|
|
#8
10-28-2006, 09:14 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
lol, I shouldnt be worried about my handicapping skills....
2002 I picked War Emblem just becasue Baffert connection....
|
|
#9
10-28-2006, 09:24 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
thats pretty similar to what I do. I suck at dirt racing, but Im getting better. little better luck with turf racing. Repent
|
|
#10
10-28-2006, 09:26 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
wow, what a lifetime ago. I could not see myself picking PDrift to win any Grade 1 race these days. Repent
|
|
#11
10-28-2006, 09:32 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
yeah, I see your point... but I would still like for PD to hit the Board (just so that i can make some money).
seems like you dont like Lava Man... interesting !!! Im assuming you'll go for Invasor or Dini ?
|
|
#12
10-28-2006, 09:39 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
I like Lava Man a lot. how can I not like a horse that is equally effective on turf and dirt? i just dont think he has a shot to win a race like the BCC. its not like this is a CA horse like Tiznow who has been winning outside of CA. hes going to be pressured on the lead and eaten alive in the stretch by a true superstar named Berardini. Bernardini is just a freak. maybe in another year, Lava man would have a shot. in another year, there would be a lot of reasons to like a horse like Invasor who has not lost in the States. but this is this year. its similar to 2004 when Ghostzapper was just a lot better than any other horse and the only one that was even close to him(St Liam) could not run in the BCC. From a class standpoint, I think the only horse that figures with Bernardini is David Junior and he is going to have to move way up on dirt to beat Bernardini. Im not counting on it. Repent
|
|
#13
10-28-2006, 10:17 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Repent, I'm exactly opposite. I am absolute money on dirt, but i couldn't pick a turf winner to save my life.
|
|
#14
10-28-2006, 10:38 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
For me, it depends on where im playing. I use a different rationale depending on the level of track.
For instance, when playing mountaineer, I definitely rely more on class than anything else. At that track on a given card, you could have 5 5000 dollar claiming races at different class levels and often times one can throw pace scenario and speed figs out the window. If you dont believe me, than try it. If playing the big boy tracks, I use more of the aforementioned tools. Speed figs, connections, pace scenario, pps at the track and distance, class. I tend to center more on class and trainer percentage and use speed figs to eliminate non contenders rather than to find a winner.
|
|
#15
10-28-2006, 10:40 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#16
10-29-2006, 08:18 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
When choosing a winner, early speed rules. When choosing a wager, a long list of other factors enter the mix and it varies from race to race.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
|
Linear Mode
