12/18: Hollywood Park (Mandatory Pay $183k P5/$93k P6 C/O's)

[Kasept]

Frustrating early beats at Fair Grounds slowly gave way to some NoLa bingos before the Hollywood feature provided the day's best moment. Identifying the legitimate from the less so in the Cash Call lineup went a long way towards a sweep of the exotics as Most Likely Liaison was a professional winner at a bonus 5-1 giving Bob Baffert his 6th win in the Futurity. 20-1 ML Best Value choice Brother Francis was bet down to 12-1 but hung on for 3rd to generate a day-saving $476 trifecta. As mentioned in Saturday's race opinion, Jerry Hollendorfer's Rousing Sermon (13-1, twice his ML tote of 6-1) did prove out as a Hollywood-appreciative male version of Starlet upsetter Killer Graces chasing home the winner as in the November prep for this important stake.

With the Baffert trio splitting mutuel support, distance-challenged Majestic City went off a surprising 3-1 favorite and excluding him from serious consideration went a long way towards isolating the superfecta ($2,524) among the quintet tabbed. Blingo was my 5th horse in the Futurity and the Moss-Shirreffs colt will continue to merit attention after finishing 6th (beaten 3L) while moving late and catching the leaders past the wire in only his second start. Along with Blingo and 4th place finisher Sky Kingdom, another horse still learning and likely to get better with added ground is Empire Way who finished an obfuscated 5th.

While a fun and lucrative wagering opp, the Futurity didn't exactly enhance the reputation of this 2yo crop with the year end looming. Though the fig isn't out yet, the top pair is likely to receive a moderate 90ish Beyer for their efforts. There hasn't been a triple digit Beyer earned in the Futurity since Brother Derek's 102 in 2005 and as always, its too early to to laud or condone the group when you look at the winning fig of recent winners of this race:

2010 Comma to the Top 95
2009 Looking at Lucky 83
2008 Pioneerof the Nile 86
2007 Into Mischief 95
2006 Stormello 94

(NOTE: DRF's Brad Free confirmed a 90 Beyer for Liaison & Rousing Sermon via Twitter.)

Saturday's HollyPark fireworks tripped carryovers in both the P5 and the P6 and with Sunday being the meet-ender, both skeins have 'must pay' tags on them. The Super Hi-5 cannot carry as well. Hope everyone enjoyed Saturday and are ready for a fun Sunday of action!


HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P5, PL Pick All, P3, DD, Super)

$183k Mandatory Payout P5 starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Chocolate Caliente 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Smokey Lake 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 March Mary 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 For You My Heart 5-2 3rd


2nd: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Times Gone By 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Where's the Remote 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Tamarack Smarty 9-5 2nd


3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

ATR listeners heard confident Baffert laud potential of Eden's Moon Friday and likelihood of success further confirmed by strong worktab notes from National Turf..

Most Likely: #5 EDEN'S MOON 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Flashy Dame 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 SCR
Exotics Use: #2 Miss Communication 4-1 4th


4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Russian River 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Party With Brando 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Vikkilee 3-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Hameildaeme 5-2 WON ($10.00)


5th: CLM, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Mandatory payout $93k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Atta Boy Pete 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Gotham Knights 2-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #5 Enuff Bull 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 I Will Follow 3-1 8th


$50 P5 Play:

1: ALL
2: 1-3-5
3: 5
4: 1-6
5: 4-5-6

6x3x1x2x3 = 108 x .50 = $54


6th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Tough accepting 11x starter Alala at 5-2 here, but it's a very modest group, she adds blinkers, retains Rosario and has shown steady, incremental improvement. Luckyvic gets grass bow and sire Gotham Sire clicks at 21% with his 'first turf' runners. Lindz Winz returns to turf and state breds for Barry A. while adding Nakatani. Pretty Much another getting back to restricted company..

Best Value: #7 Pretty Much 5-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Alala 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Luckyvic 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Lindz Winz 8-1 5th


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 His Boy Elroy 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Bigbari 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Arresting Officer 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #9 Hurricane Harbor 20-1 8th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Outstanding set here and though I have to rank them -- and I did so based on value more or less -- there isn't much separating these 4..

Best Value: #3 Rauschenberg 9-2 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #5 Mandated Bliss 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 High Test 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Industry Leader 3-1 5th


9th: 27th On Trust H., Cal-3+, 7.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Mensa Heat 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #3 Scofield Barracks 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Red Defense 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Mark the Bench 6-1 6th


10th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Mandatory Payout Hi-5 here..

Most Likely: #9 Scream Queen 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 One too Many 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Dustins' Magic 10-1 WON ($23.20)
Exotics Use: #12 Lady Now 15-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Silver Threat 8-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-7) $50.80
$1 Trifecta (4-7-9) $201.40
$1 Superfecta (4-7-9-12) $2,073.80


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 4-6
6: 1-2-4-7
7: 1
8: 3-5-7
9: 6
10: 4-9-11

2x4x1x3x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 P6 (5 of 6) Pays $151.00


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-6
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-2-3-4-6
10: 4-7-9-11-12

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

Brad Free tweet confirms 90 Beyer for Liaison/Rousing Sermon in Futurity..

[paisjpq]

times gone by is the 5 in race 2... not the 4

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by paisjpq

times gone by is the 5 in race 2... not the 4

Thank you pais..

[Kasept]

HOL SCR/CHG'S

Enormously important SCR from the nightcap as Mitchell's #3 Never Shea Never (3-1) out via vet..

[herkhorse]

nice job Steve., hope you got something in the last on top of the conso.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

nice job Steve., hope you got something in the last on top of the conso.

I'm glad this meet is over.

[Bogey]

Steve, nice run at the PK6.

[Rootdog1]

nice capping steve...with a larger ticket you would of had it.

[Kasept]

Thx guys. I was kind of sloppy this wknd and didn't connect dots in the multis that well. The SCR of Never Shea Never confounded me when it came to reworking the sequence. Fun weekend. Hope everybody did OK!

[MISTERGEE]

well you had the super in the last, so not too sloppy

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

well you had the super in the last, so not too sloppy

GEE,

It wasn't so much reworking the nightcap as it was having to rethink the P6 ticket. I was singling Never Shea Never and knew I had to spread more in the 10th with her SCR'ing out. That meant playing around with the front half of the play and I ended up settling on the single of His Boy Elroy. As I said on ATR today, there are times when you know you might have hit with a bigger investment and then there are occasions when you know you simply spread in a leg (6th) where you might have singled (iffy fave Alala) which makes it possible to go 3-4 deep in another leg (7th) where Arresting Officer deserved more respect.

Still a fun day..