Union Rags Derby odds?

[tiznowthegreat]

Do you think he will go off at over or below 5/1?

I know we have another round of derby preps, with particularly Hansens performance having a big impact, but what are anybody's early thoughts?

Originally Posted by tiznowthegreat

Do you think he will go off at over or below 5/1?

I know we have another round of derby preps, with particularly Hansens performance having a big impact, but what are anybody's early thoughts?

Even if Hansen wins the Bluegrass in a romp. I think UR will be the favorite for the Derby at 5-1.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Even if Hansen wins the Bluegrass in a romp. I think UR will be the favorite for the Derby at 5-1.

Imagine if had won a fast race?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Even if Hansen wins the Bluegrass in a romp. I think UR will be the favorite for the Derby at 5-1.

I think they are using the Bluegrass purely as conditioning for Hansen and are looking for the first time Syn to Dirt pop.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Even if Hansen wins the Bluegrass in a romp. I think UR will be the favorite for the Derby at 5-1.

Agreed, unfortunately.

Union Rags 5-1
Gemologist 6-1
Creative Cause 8-1
Take Charge Indy 8-1
I'll Have Another 10-1
Hansen 12-1
Bodemeister 12-1
Alpha 14-1

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by justindew

Agreed, unfortunately.

Union Rags 5-1
Gemologist 6-1
Creative Cause 8-1
Take Charge Indy 8-1
I'll Have Another 10-1
Hansen 12-1
Bodemeister 12-1
Alpha 14-1

Alpha lost by a head to Gemologist and I get twice the price not too mention Ramon and Juicy McLaughlin? Union Rags can win but he had better run a lot faster then he has been..5/1 is a serious underlay

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think they are using the Bluegrass purely as conditioning for Hansen and are looking for the first time Syn to Dirt pop.

Agree, but with his record on synthetics, I'm not sure it matters.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by justindew

Agreed, unfortunately.

Union Rags 5-1
Gemologist 6-1
Creative Cause 8-1
Take Charge Indy 8-1
I'll Have Another 10-1
Hansen 12-1
Bodemeister 12-1
Alpha 14-1

If the race was today, I'd take the Cause as my most likely, but 12-1 on Hansen would be tough to resist.

I agree with just about everyone that Rags will be the lukewarm favorite. His Beyers are light, but his sheet numbers are still better going back to last year, and he just looks the part.

[Hoist Her Flag]

It's nice to have six or seven horses that you can actually make a case for. The last few years it was one or two. Or more who you didn't like

[Mike]

Creative Cause and I'll Have Another all out to beat a 30k maiden claimer. Gemologist,Alpha, Union Rags and El Padrino couldn't crack a 100 Beyer either.

All of these horse seem very consistent, but,
I'm still looking for something out there that I haven't seen yet.

Who's the speed of the speed in the Derby, potentially?

[NavalOrange]

Wait till post positions. What if Union Rags get the #1.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Mike

Creative Cause and I'll Have Another all out to beat a 30k maiden claimer. Gemologist,Alpha, Union Rags and El Padrino couldn't crack a 100 Beyer either.

All of these horse seem very consistent, but,
I'm still looking for something out there that I haven't seen yet.

Who's the speed of the speed in the Derby, potentially?

I'm looking at Take Charge Indy. Who else?

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by jms62

I think they are using the Bluegrass purely as conditioning for Hansen and are looking for the first time Syn to Dirt pop.

I presume you mean second-time synth to dirt...

[jms62]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I presume you mean second-time synth to dirt...

Didn't look back at the PP's there, sorry.

[HaloWishingwell]

when in doubt Churchill will overbet Borel. Gemologist will take money from those fascinated with the undefeated

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

when in doubt Churchill will overbet Borel. Gemologist will take money from those fascinated with the undefeated

And those two are as likely as any other individuals. Borel was definately overbet last year, but Street Sense was fair, MTB underbet I guess, and Super Saver was about fair IMO.

[DaTruth]

I'm remaining neutral until the dapple reports start appearing.

Originally Posted by OldDog

I'm looking at Take Charge Indy. Who else?

Who else? I've got that narrowed down to 19.

What does it say about the last set of Derby preps that a horse that hasn't run in almost a month (Optimizer) is now climbing the charts with a bullet?

I think I knew more about who I liked on Jan. 1 than today!

Sheesh.

And think of this. 8-1 in this race still only pays $18.00.

I don't know much for sure. But this is a stone fact. No matter who wins it's a bigger surprise than you might think.

No matter what they pay. It's a huge underlay!!

Fire away.

[ranger5830]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

And those two are as likely as any other individuals. Borel was definately overbet last year, but Street Sense was fair, MTB underbet I guess, and Super Saver was about fair IMO.

MTB was severely overbet, even at 50-1. I think the consensus is that fair value for him as far as accurately predicting his chances to win was at least 150-1. But both the Borel factor and the Giacomo factor knocked his price down. Street Sense was probably about fair value but of course Borel had never won a derby at that point so his effect on the odds was much less than it is now, espescially among the casual fans who show up once a year just to bet the derby.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Who else? I've got that narrowed down to 19.

As the speed horses in the Derby? That's what I was referring to, in answering Mike.