Derby Future - Pool 1 - The Field

[tywizard]

I'm channeling my inner Calzone Lord (data driven post).

The horses in red below comprise "The Field" (yes there are more, but these seem like the most likely to actually make it to the derby...Would include Najjar as well) for Derby Future Pool 1. Would you take 3-2 on these horses? It might be a silly question, but just trying to point out that this crop seems to be pretty formful to date and have been rather predictable.

1 Hansen Michael Maker $1,400,000
2 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O’Brien $1,294,030
3 Union Rags Michael Matz $1,170,000
4 Creative Cause Mike Harrington $836,000
5 Wrote (IRE) Aidan O’Brien $756,630
6 Gemologist Todd Pletcher $703,855
7 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne $698,400
XX Hero of Order * Gennadi Dorochenko $615,500
9 Sabercat Steve Asmussen $601,429
10 I’ll Have Another Doug O’Neill $601,000
11 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen $545,558
12 Secret Circle Bob Baffert $470,000
13 Dullahan Dale Romans $405,000
14 Liaison Bob Baffert $393,000
15 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin $380,000
16 Prospective Mark Casse $365,452
17 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo $324,500
18 Done Talking Hamilton Smith $311,000
19 Drill Bob Baffert $300,000
20 Went the Day Well Graham Motion $282,000
21 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer $270,000
22 Mark Valeski Larry Jones $260,000
23 El Padrino Todd Pletcher $250,000
24 Reveron Agustin Bezara $220,000
25 Isn’t He Clever Henry Dominguez $188,000
26 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas $181,375
37 Scatman Michael Lauer $100,000
44 Howe Great Graham Motion $90,000
48 Handsome Mike Doug O’Neill $73,500
52 Bodemeister Bob Baffert $60,000

To me, the question is really, do you take 3-2 odds on 7 or 8 chances instead of a stab on a single horse that has a decent shot of not making it to the derby (Algorithms, Out of Bounds, Fed Biz, etc.)?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tywizard

I'm channeling my inner Calzone Lord (data driven post).

The horses in red below comprise "The Field" (yes there are more, but these seem like the most likely to actually make it to the derby...Would include Najjar as well) for Derby Future Pool 1. Would you take 3-2 on these horses? It might be a silly question, but just trying to point out that this crop seems to be pretty formful to date and have been rather predictable.

1 Hansen Michael Maker $1,400,000
2 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O’Brien $1,294,030
3 Union Rags Michael Matz $1,170,000
4 Creative Cause Mike Harrington $836,000
5 Wrote (IRE) Aidan O’Brien $756,630
6 Gemologist Todd Pletcher $703,855
7 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne $698,400
XX Hero of Order * Gennadi Dorochenko $615,500
9 Sabercat Steve Asmussen $601,429
10 I’ll Have Another Doug O’Neill $601,000
11 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen $545,558
12 Secret Circle Bob Baffert $470,000
13 Dullahan Dale Romans $405,000
14 Liaison Bob Baffert $393,000
15 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin $380,000
16 Prospective Mark Casse $365,452
17 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo $324,500
18 Done Talking Hamilton Smith $311,000
19 Drill Bob Baffert $300,000
20 Went the Day Well Graham Motion $282,000
21 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer $270,000
22 Mark Valeski Larry Jones $260,000
23 El Padrino Todd Pletcher $250,000
24 Reveron Agustin Bezara $220,000
25 Isn’t He Clever Henry Dominguez $188,000
26 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas $181,375
37 Scatman Michael Lauer $100,000
44 Howe Great Graham Motion $90,000
48 Handsome Mike Doug O’Neill $73,500
52 Bodemeister Bob Baffert $60,000

To me, the question is really, do you take 3-2 odds on 7 or 8 chances instead of a stab on a single horse that has a decent shot of not making it to the derby (Algorithms, Out of Bounds, Fed Biz, etc.)?

Looking at the list, those who took the Field will have a minimum of 8 runners in the Derby. More likely, 9 or 10 after inevitable defections.

This Derby looks very open to me, so yeah, I'd take (took) the field.

--Dunbar

[wapete]

How about field #2 - You get 3/1 on your money but lose Secret Circle, Scatman, and Bodemeister of the potential starters. I've found field #2 to be more valuable over the past few years.