4/21: Aqueduct (7th-10th); Keeneland (5th-10th); Santa Anita (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

Good day of racing at Aqueduct Friday and was able to find winners, but too many were lower priority exotics choices for me to cash a meaningful multi ticket between the 4th-9th. Hope everybody did OK. On the road to Kentucky overnight and looking forward to a full afternoon of action as Aqueduct and Santa Anita wind down and Keeneland offers another wild and wacky slate. Derby lead up broadcasts begin live from Churchill Downs Monday!


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Despite relative accomplishment, Dodging and Silver Skates appear like career maidens, so those that have failed less are preferable..

Best Value: #6 Yogins 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Dodging 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Tell Grant 4-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Rangey 6-1 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Group of solid citizens. Top Surprize (6-1) SCR'd for this and will be a nice number, but Abilio (4-1) may have clear pace edge up front. '11 stakes vet King Congie (8-5) is OK, but Albertrani not so strong with returnees and you have to eat the West Point propensity to bury horses at the windows which Eric Donovan anticipates with the lowball ML..

Best Value: #4 Abilio 4-1 WON ($8.50)
Next Best: #3 King Congie 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Carson Hall 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Screenplay 12-1 6th


9th: 142nd Jerome (G2), 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Interesting edition of this long-running standard features a number of still developing 'any kind' types including pricey pair from Baffert. Too much pace signed on here for there not to be room for the closers with well-priced Adirondack King is receiving the Dullahan style push from similar scenario a week ago and underlaid Stirred Up OK clunking along late. Of those on or near the front end, $925k NY bred Brigand has Baffert speed tab seal of approval and 2nd/layoff Right to Vote may have upside yet after returning to his 2yo best immediately in his seasonal debut..

Best Value: #6 Adirondack King 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Brigand 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Stirred Up 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Dan and Sheila 12-1 4th


10th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Tricky finish to good sequence. Many here eligible for laurels, especially with several getting back on their preferred surface..

Best Value: #10 Monastir 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Kitten in May 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Headinttothecity 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Toccet's Image 8-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 4-6
8: 3-4
9: 2-3-4-6-7
10: 3-4-5-10

2x2x5x4 = 80 x .50 = $40



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Seanchai 15-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Force de la Nature 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Counselor Cabot 3-1 6th
Super Add: #1 M'Dearest 5-1 2nd


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 SOUNDS OF THE CITY 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Sovereign Crisis 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Distortionada 2-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #1 Reason to Medal 4-1 6th


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Note that 1st level ALW races for 4+ fillies and mares run consecutively and the sprint draws 6 while the route draws 11. According to the armchair experts, American racing is top heavy with brittle speed-dependent types yet here's a group of 11 -- all but one 4 or 5 years old -- with 112 starts between them preferring to go 9 panels..

Best Value: #3 Vivo Per Lei 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Mystical Star 7-2 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Namaskara 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Font 4-1 8th


8th: 16th Giant's Causeway, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

The top turf sprinters from the Fair Grounds season make up the bilk of this nice field led by Iwinski's white hot dash mare Inspired. Tony Dutrow invader Classy Zip rates upset chance..

Best Value: #5 Classy Zip 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Inspired 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Wild About Marie 6-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Indulgence 10-1 5th


9th: 31st Lexington (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Like the Illinois Derby 2 weeks ago, a race to play around and take shots. And look, there's Morgan's Guerrilla who was a major part of the Hawthorne haymaker. As I like to say, no play is too outlandish in this kind of race, but recognize that the 8.5f means the short wire at KEE where deep closing tactics like Dullahan used at 9f aren't as productive..

Most Likely: #2 Summer Front 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Holiday Promise 6-1 6th
Best Value: #11 Gold Megillah 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Morgan's Guerrilla 6-1 11th


10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Fast Bobbi J 3-1 5th
Best Value: #11 Cheery 5-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Atlantic Tap 4-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Yankee Union 12-1 3rd
Super/Hi-5: #1 Seaside Escape 12-1 9th


<$50 P5 Play:

6: 2
7: 2-3-4
8: 2-5-6-8
9: 2-6
10: 5-10-11

1x3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4
8: 2-5-6-8
9: 1-2-6-11
10: 5-10-11

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Night Badger 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Designer 9-5 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #1 The Brain 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 SCR


7th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Dress Code 5-1 WON ($14.80)
Next Best: #4 Lamm 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Jairzihno 7-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Wild Revenge 9-2 -


8th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Obsess 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Cyclometer 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Close to the Edge 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Flightofalifetime 4-1 7th


9th: 64th Santa Barbara H. (G2), F&M-4+, 10f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Cambina 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Capital Plan 5-1 WON ($13.20)
Next Best: #5 Vamo a Galupiar 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Camelia Rose 2-1 4th


10th: MDN CLM, 4+, 6.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Emerald Assets 3-1 8th
Best Value: 3 Tiz Savy 6-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Ocean Appeal 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Father Pabst 9-2 WON ($7.80)
Super/Hi-5: #5 Oak Tree Drive 8-1 10th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-11
8: 1-4-6-7
9: 2-4-5
10: 3-9-10-11

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

KEE SCR/CHG'S

Cold and damp at KEE which can render the main track tight and speed-favoring; Watch early races..

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG'S

[RockHardTen1985]

Steve, why no love for Eternal Ruler? I like him and the 4 in that race.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Steve, why no love for Eternal Ruler? I like him and the 4 in that race.

"Prefer others more" as the saying goes. G/L. Love Ribaudo but seems like Ruler needs improvement to win.

[ADJMK]

Best Value: #6 Adirondack King 12-1

Like your selection. Last start #12 post was a killer and recent works are great. Looks to get a decent pace to run at in here.

[hockey2315]

I like him too, but I have a feeling Adirondack King will be like 5-1 or less. Like Dullahan, EVERYONE is on this horse.

[Kasept]

SA SCR/CHG'S

that sucked, had everyone but the 1 at AQU and who wins. crazy game

[lemoncrush]

Steve, heard you touting "all squared away" on ATR Friday. Hope you had a little saver ticket on him.