Battaglia's tentative pre-draw Derby ML

[Kasept]

Mike Battaglia’s tentative morning line

Hansen (Maker/Dominguez)*10-1*

Daddy Long Legs (O’Brien/O’Donoghue)*30-1*

Union Rags (Matz/Leparoux)*9-2*

Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux)*8-1*

Creative Cause (Harrington/Rosario)*12-1*

Gemologist (Pletcher/Castellano)*6-1*

Sabercat (Asmussen/Nakatani)*30-1*

Take Charge Indy (Byrne/Borel)*15-1*

Bodemeister (Baffert/Smith)*4-1*

I’ll Have Another (O’Neill/Gutierrez)*12-1*

Daddy Nose Best (Asmussen/Gomez)*15-1*

Liaison (Baffert/M. Garcia)*50-1*

Alpha (McLaughlin/Maragh)*15-1*

Prospective (Casse/Contreras)*30-1*

Trinniberg (Parboo/Martinez)*50-1*

Done Talking (Smith/Russell)*50-1*

Went the Day Well (Motion/Velazquez)*20-1*

Rousing Sermon (Hollendorfer/Lezcano)*50-1*

El Padrino (Pletcher/Bejarano)*20-1*

Optimizer (Lukas/Court)*50-1*

Jon White had Hansen at 12-1. I can't see him being higher than 8-1.

[alysheba4]

creative cause at 12-1 would be nice.

[Travis Stone]

I can't say I would disagree with much. It's a hard line to make, especially this year.

[-BT-]

[quote=Kasept;857370]Mike Battaglia’s tentative morning line


Dullahan (Romans/Desormeaux)*8-1*QUOTE]


so much for value there

-bt-

[jms62]

Originally Posted by alysheba4

creative cause at 12-1 would be nice.

Why becuase it would be a massive underlay and create value elsewhere?

[HaloWishingwell]

Take Charge Lady won't be 15-1

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

Take Charge Lady won't be 15-1

He should be, but I agree that he won't (because of Borel).

[ranger5830]

I know it's a thankless job, but I don't know how he could have 6 horses at 50-1 when last year not a single horse was higher than 40-1. Also, the favorites seem too short, maybe put Bodemeister at 9-2 or 5, UR at 6 and adjust the longshots down accordingly.

[FATPIANO]

I'll take 6-1 on Gemologist

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by ranger5830

I know it's a thankless job, but I don't know how he could have 6 horses at 50-1 when last year not a single horse was higher than 40-1. Also, the favorites seem too short, maybe put Bodemeister at 9-2 or 5, UR at 6 and adjust the longshots down accordingly.

I think this is a year where we return to realistic odds on the longshots... but then again, who knows... the volume in the pool is so large.

Making a horse 30-1 instead of 50-1 starts to really increase odds on some of the lower horses, which is tough to do this year.

[justindew]

I don't think there is a chance in hell that either Bodemeister or Union Rags will be under 5-1. I'd say even 6-1 would be low. Lookin' At Lucky was over 6-1 as the favorite. And only two others were under 10-1 that year (Super Saver and Sidney's Candy).

[slotdirt]

Hard to envision we'll have a Big Brown (2-1) or even a Friesan Fire (3.8-1?!?!?!?!? - sorry, had to throw that in there for laughs) in the 2012 Derby.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by justindew

I don't think there is a chance in hell that either Bodemeister or Union Rags will be under 5-1. I'd say even 6-1 would be low. Lookin' At Lucky was over 6-1 as the favorite. And only two others were under 10-1 that year (Super Saver and Sidney's Candy).

6-1 because he drew the rail. He would have been 4-1 or less in the 5-20 posts.

[PatCummings]

Unless you are only betting in the win pool, the odds are meaningless for assessing legitimate value. I think you get some much more realistic value on the "longshots" in the exotics pool compared to the win pool, where a load of the novice money ends up going.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by 3kings

6-1 because he drew the rail. He would have been 4-1 or less in the 5-20 posts.

Good point, but there were still only three horses under 10-1.

[Antitrust32]

I'm starting to really like Hanson.

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I'm starting to really like Hanson.

At 10-1 or higher, me too.

I prefer Nelson, but Hanson will do.

[OldDog]

I think you mean Nilsson.