5/5: Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby Day)

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

nice tri in the second..the rail may be fine after that stagglefest to the wire..

I'm not sold on the rail being back after that race. You're dealing with a jockey who has a ton of luck on his side right now. The 1 quit hard and the runners up had wider trips.

[Kasept]

Butch Lehr, working the strip for the last Derby Day of his career, gets it FAST for the 3rd.. Amazing.

[jms62]

We took a brutal beat in the 3rd....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Thanks and Good Luck Steve!!

Originally Posted by casp0555

Thanks for the hard work you have put in this past couple of weeks, hoping you have a great day and best of luck to all!

Originally Posted by pucknut

salutes to steve whose tireless efforts make every racing day special and this one extraordinary run well everyone

Originally Posted by Patrick333

Ditto from me. Great job Steve.

Originally Posted by geeker2

Good luck Steve- thanks for all the ATR shows. I hope at the end of the day I can say "went the day well".

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Best of luck Steve - Thanks for your tireless efforts over the past two weeks.

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Eh? I guess Dullahan = Animal Kingdom. I don't like the horse at all, figure he likes the other surface, and wins for fun. FML if that horse even gets in the top 3. But good luck anyway, Steve.

Guys...

Settled in for the afternoon. Thanks very much for the kind words/well wishes and BOL back to you and all..

Let's take it to them the rest of the day!

[SkinnyKid]

Thanks Steve and all your guests for the info you give us.
Derby future bets live to dullahan ,tci,bodie. Bodie and Gemologist in exactas.
Looking to not settle until I see more races today leaning towards Gemologist and playing some bombs to hit board in tri.
Good luck D.T. crew!!

[Sethcarter]

Sitting here thinking how did steve make his selection for the derby..

And all that comes to mind is fittest, fastest, best...

playing Daddy nose best 50 wps... and praying he is the fittest!!!!

[golfer]

10th: 26th Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Feels like the race on the card that will play the most straightforwardly with speeds assuring a fair chance for all styles..

Most Likely: #2 Turallure 5-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Doubles Partner 4-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Slim Shadey 20-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Brilliant Speed 12-1 3rd

Surprised there has been no mention here (as far as I can see) about the curious way this race was run. On paper, while I believed Little Mike would lead the way, the presence of Get Stormy and Turbo Compressor should have ensured at the very least a legitimate, if not super fast pace. It seems Dominguez and Bejarano had other ideas. Their surprising tactical decision did not help their mounts, who finished 9th and 8th respectively, nor did it help any of the closers in the race (obviously), or most people who handicapped the race. It did help Little Mike.

I happened to catch Brad Thomas on the Meadowlands feed, LAMBASTE (my word) the jocks in question, calling the tactics "bad for the game". He also said stewards should met out punishment in situation like this. I thought that was refreshingly honest for him to say what many of us were thinking.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by golfer

Surprised there has been no mention here (as far as I can see) about the curious way this race was run. On paper, while I believed Little Mike would lead the way, the presence of Get Stormy and Turbo Compressor should have ensured at the very least a legitimate, if not super fast pace. It seems Dominguez and Bejarano had other ideas. Their surprising tactical decision did not help their mounts, who finished 9th and 8th respectively, nor did it help any of the closers in the race (obviously), or most people who handicapped the race. It did help Little Mike.

I happened to catch Brad Thomas on the Meadowlands feed, LAMBASTE (my word) the jocks in question, calling the tactics "bad for the game". He also said stewards should met out punishment in situation like this. I thought that was refreshingly honest for him to say what many of us were thinking.

The two were a combined 16 wins from 39 starts, and save TC's maiden breaker, every single one of them occurred on the lead - neither of them have ever passed a horse (to be fair, Get Stormy laid 2nd within a length to the half on one or two occasions).

The notion that both of these jocks would decide to take back, on one of racing's biggest days, certainly needs to be construed.

It's difficult not to sound like sour grapes, but it gives the sport another black eye without an explanation - you know, they send reporters on horseback to interview the winner, why not send one to find out why Ramon and Raffie stiffed their mounts?

I had a houseful of people, many not involved with the game, but one friend had shown interest in learning basic handicapping. He asked me why Little Mike was going off at 12-1 when he looked like he could legitimately win.. I explained the need for the other 2 to need the lead as well, and that the 3 of them would cook themselves, hence the value price, and why horses that come from off the pace were considered more likely.

He bet, against the 1, then ask why they didn't go, shook his head and said, "this is why I don't go to the track - these jocks are in cahoots with each other - Dominguez and Bejarano had money on the 1"

If that's the public perception, and certainly not an illogical conclusion to draw, why would the stewards not investigate - or at least sit them down for an explanation? Bejarano can probably get away with saying TC didn't care for the looser footing, Dominguez, not so much - he has made the lead in all but 2 of starts over a turf course that was graded as "other than firm"

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The two were a combined 16 wins from 39 starts, and save TC's maiden breaker, every single one of them occurred on the lead - neither of them have ever passed a horse (to be fair, Get Stormy laid 2nd within a length to the half on one or two occasions).

The notion that both of these jocks would decide to take back, on one of racing's biggest days, certainly needs to be construed.

It's difficult not to sound like sour grapes, but it gives the sport another black eye without an explanation - you know, they send reporters on horseback to interview the winner, why not send one to find out why Ramon and Raffie stiffed their mounts?

I had a houseful of people, many not involved with the game, but one friend had shown interest in learning basic handicapping. He asked me why Little Mike was going off at 12-1 when he looked like he could legitimately win.. I explained the need for the other 2 to need the lead as well, and that the 3 of them would cook themselves, hence the value price, and why horses that come from off the pace were considered more likely.

He bet, against the 1, then ask why they didn't go, shook his head and said, "this is why I don't go to the track - these jocks are in cahoots with each other - Dominguez and Bejarano had money on the 1"

If that's the public perception, and certainly not an illogical conclusion to draw, why would the stewards not investigate - or at least sit them down for an explanation? Bejarano can probably get away with saying TC didn't care for the looser footing, Dominguez, not so much - he has made the lead in all but 2 of starts over a turf course that was graded as "other than firm"

It was embarrassing, and as much as I love Dominguez, he has watched more horses cruise on easy leads over the last few years while rating his own horse than any rider I can imagine.

I was a bit more annoyed that Bejarano didn't press on with it when Turbo Compressor came out of the gate so quickly. Wrangling him back was just very foolish. This is a horse that has never rated effectively. Get Stormy at least had one positive race where he rated (Shadwell Turf MIle) even though that race is a bit difficult to trust.

Dale Romans has absolutely tortured me on big event days at CD going back to last Derby day. Doug called it well in advance, Dale's horses simply cannot be tossed on big days at CD. Thank God the BC is at SA.

[jms62]

I totally dismissed Little Mike and Get Stormy and probably needed ALL to get Little Mike myself... As far as handing out punishment for how the race was run is beyond absurd. Jocks and trainers strategize how they will run based upon the other horses in the race. I can understand how Get Strormy didn't battle for the lead against Little Mike who has shown that the ONLY WAY he can win is on the lead. They simply let him slip away and Jersey Joe who gets lambasted quite a bit did a hell of a job. Kudos to him and it is another 3 out of 4 in the P4 for me Derby day.... Wait till next year.

[Kasept]

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

Which brings up another question that how in a 20 horse field can the longest horses be less then 60-1 ? Is it computer alogorithm betting that is doing this? How can Liason in post 20 be only 56-1?

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by jms62

Which brings up another question that how in a 20 horse field can the longest horses be less then 60-1 ? Is it computer alogorithm betting that is doing this? How can Liason in post 20 be only 56-1?

The Goat.

[South Beach Luv]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

I am guessing it was from the extra $ in the pools from people that looked at the race (like Rudeboylvis's friend) and saw all the 1 1 1 1's and figured he was a good bet.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

More than any other race/result of the weekend, this was the most confounding. The Derby is always going to have it's oddities in pace developments/trouble/decision making, but it seemed utterly impossible that anything other than an authentic pace would unfold in the Woodford. It took all of the 90 minutes between it and the Derby to stop muttering about the race. There wasn't a guy I talked to afterwards that could have imagined Little Mike winning which begs the question how in the world he was 12-1?

I'm amazed that 10 pinheads let Bravo walk the dog like that. Did they really think a horse of that quality would not come back to them if left uncontested? I understand not wanting to sacrifice your horse, but I don't get giving your horse an opportunity to do no better than second to avoid it.

There were many killers for me this weekend but none more than that race.