Weird betting coup at Thistledown

[tector]

http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-...ays-fifth-race

[blackthroatedwind]

It's not a betting coup.

[tector]

Yes, it was. The only question is whether it was a successful one.

[blackthroatedwind]

I guess waiting for the facts before making conclusions has become a lost art.

[cmorioles]

Only two logical explanations I can see. One is what is mentioned in the article, that there were bigger bets offshore that guaranteed a win. Two, there was some type of glitch in the betting software being used. That one appears far less likely to me.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess waiting for the facts before making conclusions has become a lost art.

When do we ever get all the facts in cases like this?

[freddymo]

Looks like a rebate grab right?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

When do we ever get all the facts in cases like this?

I don't know a lot, and certainly nothing about this, but do you think there are outfits booking big action on Thistledown? You do realize if it was a betting coup, someone had to get down for $20K just to break even? And that's assuming they even get paid. I guess anything's possible but I don't buy it.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't know a lot, and certainly nothing about this, but do you think there are outfits booking big action on Thistledown? You do realize if it was a betting coup, someone had to get down for $20K just to break even? And that's assuming they even get paid. I guess anything's possible but I don't buy it.

I realize it. It doesn't seem that hard to believe somebody would take the action, especially spreading it out all over the place. Paying out though, that is another story.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Looks like a rebate grab right?

How would that work exactly?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I realize it. It doesn't seem that hard to believe somebody would take the action, especially spreading it out all over the place. Paying out though, that is another story.

There are a lot of holes in believing a betting coup ( at least if you don't live in a Dick Francis novel ). It seems much more likely it was a computer glitch. Then again, I don't know anything about how that would work, but given how illogical it is that it was a betting coup, I'll take the glitch side.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

How would that work exactly?

You're going to encourage him?

[tector]

Please lets us know when you get "facts" from offshore books.

No one said it was successful. But if you put the known facts together, reasonable people (yes, I am afraid you are off this train already) can draw reasoned inferences.

Induction--a modern day miracle, I know.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by tector

Please lets us know when you get "facts" from offshore books.

No one said it was successful. But if you put the known facts together, reasonable people (yes, I am afraid you are off this train already) can draw reasoned inferences.

Induction--a modern day miracle, I know.

Yeah, I'm unreasonable.

[Indian Charlie]

It happening on a 1/5 shot that won by 16.5 lengths is highly suspicious.

This was a horse that could not lose without falling down.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

It happening on a 1/5 shot that won by 16.5 lengths is highly suspicious.

This was a horse that could not lose without falling down.

Another mere coincidence--you must disregard that fact. Please await facts from the offshore books, those will resolve the issue. Of course if those facts don't show up--is that even POSSIBLE?--then no conclusions of any kind can be drawn. Act as if nothing happened. And if happens again, that won't happen, either. In fact, it already didn't.

[pba1817]

Barney Curley?

[Calzone Lord]

This is very bizarre.

If it is a computer glitch -- it's an expensive one.

Very few people, if any, could get down for that much money with books at Thistle to make a profit out of that situation.

I know a guy who was leading owner year in and year out on the So. Cal circuit -- and I recall he told me he could beat Mountaineer for as much as $50,000 in a race with just one mysterious book. He was claiming horses like Repole of the West at one time though -- and I'm sure a book would only allow themselves to be slaughtered by him in a race at a small track because having him as a client was to their benefit.

It looks like computers though -- they're a menace with the way they move odds late. Bodemeister got crushed late by them in both the Ky Derby and Preakness this year. Sweetnorthernsaint got hammered to Ky Derby favortisim in the last mintue the one year. The Monarchos/Invisible Ink entry got creamed late in the Fla Derby. Many examples even into the teeth of massive sized win pools.

[hailrazer]

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

You have a sure thing at a small track. You got $150,000 to bet on him. Bet him on the nose and you win $15,000. Nice score but not what your hoping for on a sure thing.

Instead, you bet $9,000 on him early to drive his odds down. No one doubts he will win, but few bet him at short price. Bet $15,000 late on all other horses in the field to basically make every horse in the field 9-2 or 5-1 price range. You are in for $100,000. If your horse wins, you get back about half of what you bet into parimutuel pool. If he loses, you get back about 80% of that pool.

That leaves you $50,000 to throw at every off-shore and bookie you can come up with to try to win $250,000. If you can collect from them all, you clear $200,000 instead of $15,000. Lots of work and risk, but for $185,000 difference, I can see it.....