NBA CHAMPIONSHIP: Who wins and in how many games

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://www.nba.com/playoffs/2012/fin...ls=st&g=2&t=bs

Last night Derek Fisher was terrible. He couldnt hit open shots, had no assists, 1 rebound and was no factor on defense except for maybe 1 or 2 plays. He was +13. Kevin Durant was Kevin Durant and he was a -9.

Kevin Durant plays A LOT of minutes. He's not the strongest dude either.

I would bet that if he played Derek Fisher minutes he would have the best plus/minus on the team going away.

In the Spurs series -- Fisher was +27. OKC outscored the Spurs by 27 points when Fisher was on the court ... when he wasn't on the court, the Spurs outscored OKC by 1 point over the entire series.

This tells me that Derek Fisher (who has 5 rings) has been playing well in his back-up point guard role.

Harden was +47 in the Spurs Series (Spurs outscored OKC by 21 in the series when he wasn't on the court) and he also was +13 along with Fisher in a game that OKC just lost to the Miami heat.

I would feel pretty good about having Harden and Fisher as back-ups. In limited minutes, they seem to be providing a spark for their team.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Isn't your value to your team determined by how much better you are than your replacement?

No it is determined by how much prodution you give them. Not to mention the lineup you play with and against can impact the number as well. If James goes out of the game the other team is likely to take out its best defensive player (assuming that is who is guarding James) because you try to get him rest when James isnt in because he plays so much. So a player on the court for Miami is now playing against a lineup w/o its best defensive player which artificially inflates the replacements +/-. Plus in a 5 on 5 situation an individual player can only have so much impact on scoring and scoring prevention. In theory if everyone was equal on a given team then they would all contribute 20% to offense and defense while on the court. But obviously that isnt reality but even the top players like James/Durant/Kobe etc can only have so much impact on scoring or defending. Other factors are starters are begining the game facing other starters (usually the other teams best players with a few notable exceptions like Harden and Ginobelli) and are playing the tougher to score minutes at the end of games. Backups are getting more time against other backups and there is sometimes a huge difference between players 5,6 and 7 on bad teams and good teams.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Kevin Durant plays A LOT of minutes. He's not the strongest dude either.

I would bet that if he played Derek Fisher minutes he would have the best plus/minus on the team going away.

In the Spurs series -- Fisher was +27. OKC outscored the Spurs by 27 points when Fisher was on the court ... when he wasn't on the court, the Spurs outscored OKC by 1 point over the entire series.

This tells me that Derek Fisher (who has 5 rings) has been playing well in his back-up point guard role.

Harden was +47 in the Spurs Series (Spurs outscored OKC by 21 in the series when he wasn't on the court) and he also was +13 along with Fisher in a game that OKC just lost to the Miami heat.

I would feel pretty good about having Harden and Fisher as back-ups. In limited minutes, they seem to be providing a spark for their team.

There are no metrics that would tell you Fisher has been playing well. The one you are using is not accurate because perhaps a better player would be +50 in his place.

The entire =/- stat is so misleading. It is like saying a horse who runs in 1:12.3 is better than one who runs in 1:13.2 just because the time is faster without regard to the track surface, pace, weather, etc. If SA shoots poorly it isn't necessarily because OKC or individual players defended them well. Sometimes you just miss shots. Same thing with +/-.

Fisher has been horrific

In his last 5 games (2 against Miami and 3 against SA)
Fisher has played 110 minutes (9 quarters)
He is 10-27 from the field
He is 1-13 on 3 pt shots
He has 8 rebounds
He has 7 assists (4 in one game)
He has 0 blocked shots
He has 4 steals


Honestly it is hard to be this bad and still play that many minutes but OKC doesn't really have many options outside of D. Cook who is a worse defensive player (not easy to do) and cant play point.

Westbrook almost makes me want to root for the Heat...almost. Pass. To. Durant. Hipster. Douche.

[King Glorious]

I really thought Miami couldn't deal with OKC but they are proving me wrong. I'm not sure why Brooks is helping them out so much with his substitutions. Why in the world was Westbrook out when Durant went out with his fourth foul? Why did Ibaka play so little? Westbrook is too young to need a rest. He should be able to go 48 every night. I just don't get it. At the same time, James is certainly not choking. He went for 29 and 14 boards tonight. Scored 16 in the first half and 13 in the second. Had eight in the last quarter and a couple of nice assists and rebounds in addition to keeping Durant in check. He's certainly not going to be the reason his team loses if they do.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

No it is determined by how much prodution you give them. Not to mention the lineup you play with and against can impact the number as well.

Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

You dont need the +/- to know that. His game is overanalyzed to the point of hysteria though the media has seemingly switched over to Westbrook since it has been pretty hard to fault Lebron.

Scott Brooks is being completely outcoached. Having Derek Fisher in the game for as long as he did last night was a huge mistake. But despite none of OKC's players playing particularly well they lost the game because Miami made FT's and they didn't.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There are no metrics that would tell you Fisher has been playing well. The one you are using is not accurate because perhaps a better player would be +50 in his place.

The entire =/- stat is so misleading. It is like saying a horse who runs in 1:12.3 is better than one who runs in 1:13.2 just because the time is faster without regard to the track surface, pace, weather, etc. If SA shoots poorly it isn't necessarily because OKC or individual players defended them well. Sometimes you just miss shots. Same thing with +/-.

Fisher has been horrific

In his last 5 games (2 against Miami and 3 against SA)
Fisher has played 110 minutes (9 quarters)
He is 10-27 from the field
He is 1-13 on 3 pt shots
He has 8 rebounds
He has 7 assists (4 in one game)
He has 0 blocked shots
He has 4 steals


Honestly it is hard to be this bad and still play that many minutes but OKC doesn't really have many options outside of D. Cook who is a worse defensive player (not easy to do) and cant play point.

6 games
13-35
3-16
8 rebounds
7 assists
0 Blocks
6 steals

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Ok. I see what you're saying.

Still, it's hard to disregard the fact that Lebron James' teams get outscored every single year when he isn't on the court, and that they absolutely dominate like no other team in the NBA every single year when he is on the court.

This stat aside -- how well do you think his teams would have done without him for the entire last four seasons?

Do you think they would have been better than .500?

Which of his last four teams was the best team? The Cleveland team that went 66-16

The 2nd leading scorer on that team was Mo Williams (he played 54 games and made just one start this season) and the 3rd leading scorer was Zydrunas Ilgauskas (The Big Z!) and he was comically uncooridanted and is out of the NBA.

I don't know much basketball -- and I understand your point about all of the flaws that come into play with the +/- stat ... and I don't even like anything about Ledouche James ... but everything I look at points to him being clear-cut the best player in the NBA every single year for the last four years.

I doubt either of the Cavs teams make the playoffs without him. Miami does but doesn't make it to the finals. I think second round at best. Going back to the 2007 season, I don't even think the team he took to the finals gets out of the first round, if they even make the playoffs. The only thing I've seen that rivals that is Iverson taking the Sixers to the finals in 2001.

Most people who are objective have long since admitted he's the clear best player. He's not the best scorer or the best shooter or the best rebounder, etc., but he best combines all of those in addition to being the best passer and defender. There is no other player that gives you as much in so many areas of the game as James does.

[RockHardTen1985]

I bet Miami and figured they would drop game 3. This series is over. Could be 5.

Hmm. Might hop a plane to Vegas today.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I bet Miami and figured they would drop game 3. This series is over. Could be 5.

This is very premature. OKC is right on par with Miami and it's extremely hard to beat a team at this level four straight times. If I were betting, I'd still go with OKC for the win although I'm much higher on Miami's chances now than I was at the start thanks to Scotty Brooks and James Harden.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

This is very premature. OKC is right on par with Miami and it's extremely hard to beat a team at this level four straight times. If I were betting, I'd still go with OKC for the win although I'm much higher on Miami's chances now than I was at the start thanks to Scotty Brooks and James Harden.

Of course it's premature but if he just acted normal no one would respond to him.

Everything is premature now. After game 1, everyone was saying Miami couldn't beat OKC. Now they are up 2-1.

[AlreadyHome]

Miami in 6

[Cannon Shell]

I was wrong. Harden has a long way to go. Ibaka looks clueless.

Congrats to Russell Westbrook. Allen Iverson is proud of you, son. SWAG SWAG. You got 43 in a playoff game!! Woo hoo.

I was wrong about LeBron. He's great.

The NBA, however, is awful.

[Dahoss]

Yeah, Lebron has proved me wrong as well. He's been terrific.

I'm not impressed with Brooks at all. To me, it seems he has absolutely no control of the team.

I don't care if there are 5 Michael Jordan clones on the court...you get the ball to your star player.

[RockHardTen1985]

No great shakes here, but like I said. Miami in 5.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Congrats to Russell Westbrook. Allen Iverson is proud of you, son. SWAG SWAG. You got 43 in a playoff game!! Woo hoo.

I was wrong about LeBron. He's great.

The NBA, however, is awful.

I think it's obvious that you hate individual greatness in a player. You totally hated James because you said he wasn't a winner. If they win this thing, that won't make him a better player. He's still the same player. Now you are on Westbrook's case. What exactly was he supposed to do? Harden was giving them nothing and Durant was looking tentative for long stretches. Meanwhile, Westbrook was in that "zone" and couldn't be stopped. Was he supposed to stop shooting and give it to Harden more or maybe Fisher or Sefolosha? It's not as if he came in the interview room afterwards saying "yeah, I know we lost but hey, I got mine." He said that his 43 didn't matter because they lost. He played a tremendous game and I really don't see how he can be faulted for that. Then again, I remember when James scored 45 against the Celtics in Boston in game seven and lost and people blamed him.