Current electoral polling: Obama still clearly ahead

[Riot]

Elections are won and lost in the electoral college. Obama has certain guaranteed "blue" states, and Romney has certain guaranteed "red" states. Thus, the entire election hinges on the results in 13 "battleground states".

It takes 270 electoral college votes to win. There are 538 available.

In these electoral swing states, Obama clearly, for now, holds a huge lead, 11 states going for Obama and 2 states for Romney.

The current final electoral college vote (based upon todays numbers) is Obama winning with 332 electoral votes, Romney losing with 206.

Romney currently only holds Missouri and North Carolina. Obama has the others.

Details of current polling synopsis:

Battleground snapshot: Post-Ryan baseline

It's been over two weeks since I did one of these, so here's the updated polling composite numbers for the battleground states, per TPM's polltracker.

I wish I would've done one of these last week, so we'd have a clean pre- and post-Paul Ryan trendline. But there wasn't much polling last week, and I generally update only when there are significant changes to the numbers.

Meanwhile, the vast majority of polling this week came from two conservative outfits: Rasmussen and Purple Strategies. Even then, Obama maintains a comfortable lead in the electoral collage tally (332-206).


Red is Romney poll moves, Blue is Obama poll moves based upon current polling. Margin is the margin candidate is ahead, and change is polling numbers change Current owner of states electoral votes = state color in red (Romney) or blue (Obama)

.
State : Obama Romney Margin Change from 8/1

.
Colorado 48.7 46.8 1.9 0.5

Example: Colorado Obama winning by 1.9 percentage points, up 0.5 since last poll

.
Florida 47 45.9 1.1 -2.0

Obama wins Florida by 1.1 percentage points, Romney down 2.0 points since last poll

.
Iowa 45.3 45 0.3 -3.4

.
Michigan 48.9 43.8 5.1 -1.3

.
Missouri 44 46.7 -2.7 4.3

.
New Hampshire 50 45.2 4.8 2.1

.
New Mexico 49.7 42.7 7.0 0.0

.
Nevada 49.7 44.3 5.4 0.0

.
North Carolina 46.5 48.3 -1.8 0.2

.
Ohio 46.6 44.3 2.3 -3.6

.
Pennsylvania 49.2 43.5 5.7 -0.9

.
Virginia 47.1 46.7 0.4 -1.3

.
Wisconsin 48.8 46.3 2.5 -3.0



Furthermore, like I've noted week after week after week, the numbers to watch are Romney's—he hits 46 percent in just five of these 13 states despite Rasmussen's best efforts. Obama misses that mark in just one—Missouri—a state I want to pull from this list as out-of-play (like I did Arizona), but the narrow 2.7-point deficit certainly argues otherwise.

I'm hoping for an avalanche of polling next week so we can get a solid pre-GOP convention baseline.

KOS http://www.dailykos.com/

[pointman]

He is not ahead in real polls. It doesn't matter anyway, Jimmy Carter was 9 points ahead of Reagen at this point and we all know how well that went for Carter.

[Riot]

Originally Posted by pointman

He is not ahead in real polls. It doesn't matter anyway, Jimmy Carter was 9 points ahead of Reagen at this point and we all know how well that went for Carter.

Wrong. This information is taken from Talking Points Memo "Pollwatcher", where they individually list and then synthesize all professional polling information.

Very well-respected and the "go to" place for accurate professional polling. So your attempt to "dismiss the source" of the polling information out of hand is not valid.

I agree with you, polls change, and sometimes very markedly. But here's where Romney is today, losing 11 of 13 swing states.

With the Ryan pick against the advice of his advisors, Romney has now lost the electoral votes of Florida.

Please show a path you think Romney can take in these swing states, which ones electoral votes he can win, how many votes that will be, that will give Romney a path to 270 electoral votes.

Because right now, without the 13 swing states, Romney has only 190.

Add in Missouri (10 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15 electoral votes) which gives Romney a total of 215 electoral votes today.

- then tell me what other of the remaining 11 swing states he'll be able to win to get to 270 electoral votes.

Romney will have to get another 55 electoral votes out of the 11 remaining swing states. Which ones can he win to get those 55 electorals? Especially if he doesn't get the 29 from Florida, and they go to Obama?

Here's the 2012 electoral vote availabilty map:

[Thepaindispenser]

The incumbent should always be ahead by a comfortable margin at this point. How else can one explain how Carter the second-worst President in modern history, after Obama, was still ahead of Reagan in the polls right up until the election?

[geeker2]

uh oh.......


http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...-obama/?page=2




"Historically, Gallup says, presidents who won a second term had near 50 percent job-approval ratings. But with Mr. Obama’s ratings stuck in the mid to low 40s, it looks as if the end is near."

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by geeker2

uh oh.......


http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...-obama/?page=2




"Historically, Gallup says, presidents who won a second term had near 50 percent job-approval ratings. But with Mr. Obama’s ratings stuck in the mid to low 40s, it looks as if the end is near."

And if I were to quote an Op Ed piece from the NY Times, what would your reaction be?

As I keep trying to tell Mr Dispenser...until Romney stands up for something other than being the anti-Obama, I don't think that's enough. I really didn't know much about him previously, but the more I know, the less I know...he's just well...there. I'm still waiting for someone to wax eloquent about why Mitt Romney will be a great President..Why he will inspire world respect and why he will be a great leader. I'm sorry..I just don't see it.

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by GBBob

And if I were to quote an Op Ed piece from the NY Times, what would your reaction be?

As I keep trying to tell Mr Dispenser...until Romney stands up for something other than being the anti-Obama, I don't think that's enough. I really didn't know much about him previously, but the more I know, the less I know...he's just well...there. I'm still waiting for someone to wax eloquent about why Mitt Romney will be a great President..Why he will inspire world respect and why he will be a great leader. I'm sorry..I just don't see it.

I guess if I rewrote your post and inserted Obama for Romney that would also define my view.

It is unfortunate that we as a country find ourselves so divided. No matter who wins - the divide will take a long time to heal - which isn't good for anybody.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by geeker2

I guess if I rewrote your post and inserted Obama for Romney that would also define my view.

It is unfortunate that we as a country find ourselves so divided. No matter who wins - the divide will take a long time to heal - which isn't good for anybody.

lol..I find myself doing the "insert Republican" quite a bit as well..oh well...off to Million Day and hoping my horses aren't Republicans