Quote:
Originally Posted by Calzone Lord
Yep. Here's the form of the horse who dominated the last race of the day at Del Mar and won it by 4+ lengths and paid $130 to win.
Looks like a complete bum on paper -- he was 7th and 10th at this same class level in his last two starts. His jockey is 0-for-28 at the meet and his trainer is 0-for-60 on the year.
He had one angle going for him -- and it wasn't as clearly appearant on paper as it was on CJ's figures.
He had been repeatedly used up in sprint races battling for the lead and stopping to a walk. Never in his life had he made an early lead before.
In yesterdays race -- he had the fields best early pace figure -- and no one was going to pressure him because any smart jockey just simply lets horses with forms like that go early on.
Finding himself on the lead for the first time ever, and with no early pressure to boot, he simply buried them.
Obviously, I wouldn't bet a horse like that ever. However, as someone who is a long-time veteran of betting exchanges ... I know that you NEVER ever mess around with betting against horses like that.
It's tempting for people to see how hopeless they look on paper and say 'why don't I make an easy $30 here and just give the 85/1 odds against that lousy 60/1 shot'
When a horse has never made a lead before -- is almost a lock to make a loose lead, I'm not interested in laying any price against them. That's a lesson I learned a long, long time ago in the days when the EhorseX exchange had a good deal of liquidity. |
This is not a REDBOARD since I didn't play the race, but if I had seen the PP, I would have had a small wps bet on this horse.
One of my favorite angles is the "speed and fade" angle, which is a horse running 6 furlongs or less, shows speed, and fades 5 lengths or less from the first call to the finish, and then gets stretched out to a mile or longer the next race.
This horse showed speed and faded 5 lengths from the first call to the finish,
then they stretched him out to a mile and he wins! This angle doesn't always play out every time, but, if you do a study on this angle, I think you'll see that you can hit some juicy overlays like this one here!
09-02-2012, 12:40 PM
Linear Mode
