Win streak attempt - Page 2

Calzone Lord · #21 09-04-2012, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Standout of the day for Tuesday:

Hoosier Race #2: Crimson's Roar

Won and paid a monstrous $3.20 -- once again the 5/2 morning line didn't come close to holding up when I thought maybe it might.

5 down, 5 more to go.

To quote Bon Jovi "we're halfway there ... woooo ohhh, livin' on a prayer!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXsmGSnq3lE

Calzone Lord · #22 09-05-2012, 02:13 PM

There are four probable contenders for today... two of them at Thistle Downs, the Baffert horse plunging in the 1st at Del Mar, and Ron Moquett's Biker Boy at Hoosier.

Biker Boy makes the most sense -- but I hate his trainer.

Lets go Race #2 at Thistle Downs -- Angel''s Rock is a Calder shipper who is facing a bunch of bums at Thistle Downs. The outside horse is going 1st time dirt -- but everything else looks hopeless.

Standout of the day:

Thistle Race #2: Angel's Rock

MaTH716 · #23 09-05-2012, 03:32 PM

$2.60 to win. Keep up the good work Doug.

Calzone Lord · #24 09-05-2012, 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

$2.60 to win. Keep up the good work Doug.

Biker Boy also paid $2.60 -- the other standout at Thistle paid $2.80 as jockey Seabury tried her best to be a human anchor -- the Baffert scratched.

6 down, 4 to go.

Calzone Lord · #25 09-06-2012, 04:17 AM

Lets go to Finger Lakes in search of the 7th straight day with a winner.

You normally want Henny Hughes offspring 1st time out and sprinting -- but Teahupoo plunges down and catches a field of complete bums. The only horse with even a remote looking chance is the #2 horse -- and I don't like the trainer change on that one.

Standout of the day:

Finger Lakes Race #1: Teahupoo

Scav · #26 09-06-2012, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Lets go to Finger Lakes in search of the 7th straight day with a winner.

You normally want Henny Hughes offspring 1st time out and sprinting -- but Teahupoo plunges down and catches a field of complete bums. The only horse with even a remote looking chance is the #2 horse -- and I don't like the trainer change on that one.

Standout of the day:

Finger Lakes Race #1: Teahupoo

!!!!

Calzone Lord · #27 09-06-2012, 01:18 PM

It was a great ride. He got him left at the gate, trapped behind a 50 and change pace, and had him everywhere but the ladies bathroom.

As Gloria Gaynor said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keN2pW8qFQc

Make it 7-for-7 and at a stellar $2.20 win mutual no less. I will survive.

7 down, 3 more to go.

brockguy · #28 09-06-2012, 02:39 PM

Doug his Betfair starting price was 1.26 but I managed to get him at 1.7 - this is brilliant! If I had enough funds in my Betfair account I'd also be laying all your losers!!!

Calzone Lord · #29 09-06-2012, 03:48 PM

Betting exchanges are great for a wide variety of reasons. In a lot of cases, laying the bums to place would be the way to go.

In terms of how draconian the game is setup against the bettor, Horse Racing in the United States is an absolute pathetic embarrassment. We are 50 years behind the year 1890. Our glorioust of glory years, the 1890's.

Calzone Lord · #30 09-08-2012, 11:55 AM

There are several horses scattered throughout the country who have the look of sure thing standouts.

A few of them look like types who'll flirt hard with even money or better. This one won't.

I hate to do it, but Gantry in the 3rd race at Louisiana Downs is facing just four rivals ... one of which (the only capable of applying pace pressure) is cross entered in a richer stake race at Kentucky Downs and figures to scratch.

Gantry has won 5 of his last 6 starts -- the lone defeat was a 3rd to Shackleford and Amazombie on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He won the Grade 2 Smile by 5 lengths last time out at Calder -- and drops in to a 50K stake here for trainer Ron Faucheux -- who is winning 53% at the meet and 30% for the year.

Standout of the day: Louisiana Race #3: Gantry

Bigsmc · #31 09-08-2012, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are several horses scattered throughout the country who have the look of sure thing standouts.

A few of them look like types who'll flirt hard with even money or better. This one won't.

I hate to do it, but Gantry in the 3rd race at Louisiana Downs is facing just four rivals ... one of which (the only capable of applying pace pressure) is cross entered in a richer stake race at Kentucky Downs and figures to scratch.

Gantry has won 5 of his last 6 starts -- the lone defeat was a 3rd to Shackleford and Amazombie on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He won the Grade 2 Smile by 5 lengths last time out at Calder -- and drops in to a 50K stake here for trainer Ron Faucheux -- who is winning 53% at the meet and 30% for the year.

Standout of the day: Louisiana Race #3: Gantry

Delaunay scratched at KD. Looks like he is staying in this race.

Calzone Lord · #32 09-08-2012, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

Delaunay scratched at KD. Looks like he is staying in this race.

Yep -- and he got to absolutely walk on a 23 2/5 loose lead while clear early -- Gantry was very passively ridden and that allowed Jake MO's rider to rush up, pin him down, and trap him.

Final furlong in 11 and change on dirt.

This is a case where if you had in-race wagering -- you'd have bet your lungs on the winner halfway through the race.

Of course the ride on Gantry was a very stupid one, by allowing him to get trapped he would have had to come home in mind-boggling fast time to win. He simply never had a chance.

Streak ends in the 8th race.

pweizer · #33 09-08-2012, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are several horses scattered throughout the country who have the look of sure thing standouts.

A few of them look like types who'll flirt hard with even money or better. This one won't.

I hate to do it, but Gantry in the 3rd race at Louisiana Downs is facing just four rivals ... one of which (the only capable of applying pace pressure) is cross entered in a richer stake race at Kentucky Downs and figures to scratch.

Gantry has won 5 of his last 6 starts -- the lone defeat was a 3rd to Shackleford and Amazombie on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He won the Grade 2 Smile by 5 lengths last time out at Calder -- and drops in to a 50K stake here for trainer Ron Faucheux -- who is winning 53% at the meet and 30% for the year.

Standout of the day: Louisiana Race #3: Gantry

Soundly beaten second at 1/5. You were right when you started this quest. It is so much harder to pick ten winners in a row than to pick any number of losers. Still, I hope you try again as this was great fun to follow.

Paul

Calzone Lord · #34 09-08-2012, 02:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

Soundly beaten second at 1/5. You were right when you started this quest. It is so much harder to pick ten winners in a row than to pick any number of losers. Still, I hope you try again as this was great fun to follow.

Paul

Thanks. Yeah, a lot can go wrong.

I made an error in assuming that horse would scratch for the richer race.

As good as Gantry is -- he only has a late pace figure of 54 on CJ's numbers -- once he got trapped -- he had absolutely no chance in the world to run an 11 final 1/8th and win the race. He just has never finished like that ever before.

Calzone Lord · #35 09-08-2012, 02:45 PM

The final quarter mile was run in 22.60 seconds. Races never come home that fast on dirt.

After being trapped and rating off of the winners heels, he had to wheel out under 124lbs, and make up a 2-length cushion into the teeth of a 22.60 final quarter when his late pace figure is no better than that of a good alw horse.

The funny part is, I bet the jockey probably believed the horse was capable of doing it.

pweizer · #36 09-08-2012, 02:46 PM

But that's the thing. A million things can happen in a race. Bad breaks, equipment issues, deal rails, etc. that are impossible to predict. Bad rides are also far too commonplace to take 1/5 on anything. I give you a lot of credit for trying this. If you couldn't pull it off, it really shows just how hard this is.

On the other hand, isolating horses with no chance is certainly easier as all the breaks in the world will not make a hopelessly slow horse fast.

Paul

Calzone Lord · #37 09-08-2012, 03:29 PM

I think it certainly can be done -- it's just VERY hard to do on one attempt.

You really need 10 healthy horses (I got them in every race this challenge. They all fired. It may not look it, but Gantry ran to his par today)

If I had to do it over -- I'd put more emphasis on taking horses with superior late pace.

The only two horses that didn't win with ease -- were both ridden very passively, trapped inside until the stretch, and didn't have the best late pace rating in the field going into their races.

cmorioles · #38 09-08-2012, 05:32 PM

This one scared me when I saw the other horse was still in. You could have found an easier one if you thought the other wouldn't scratch, but you know that I'm sure.

Indian Charlie · #39 09-08-2012, 06:52 PM

The thing with jockeys is that they are far more likely to help your horse lose than they are to help your horse win.

Calzone Lord · #40 09-08-2012, 09:50 PM

I should have stuck with just picking Presque Isle Downs today.

My Best Bet in the paper won and paid $6.80 and my "Best Value of the day" won the last race as the top pick and paid $14.60 to win.

Also had a cold exacta that paid $104.20 in the last race -- and the 2nd place finisher was 9.5 lengths clear of the third horse.

http://www1.drf.com/drfPDFChartRaces...=20120908&RN=8

Good day of betting locally. The Master has produced the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare sprint winner the last 3 years -- and Groupie Doll will probably make it the 4th year in a row.