Hooves Keeneland Primer..

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Hooves Keeneland Primer. A Few Things To Look For.many On Here Will Not Need Any Of This As They Do Well
On The Poly. This Is An Fyi From My Exp On Playing Keeneland Hope It Helps Some Of The Novice Handicappers.

1. Poly Is Not As Big A Mystery As It May Seem. Ive Found That Horses That Run Well On Dirt Will Run Well On Poly If Not A Horse May Just Not Be 'ready'.
2. Keeneland Is A Locals Track And As Such You Can Find Owner/breeder Combos 'ky Bred' That Are Pointed For The Meet.
3.no Name Trainers. Many Of These Will Pop Up And Bite You As They Are Assistants To Big Name Guys That Are Going Out On There Own .
4. Just Like At Saratoga Getting On 'trends' Early Will Help Your Bank Roll.if A Trainer With Multiple Horses.ie Mcpeek Has Been Pointing
His Horses For This Meet For 6 Months And His Stock Is Tuned Up. Getting On Him Early And Often Is A Smart Move.
5. Jocks ,some Jocks Just Do Not Ride The Poly As Well As Others.look At Victor Lebron,lehandro Gonsolves, Jesus Castinon.these Guys Ride
On Poly More Than Most Of The Big Name Guys And As Such They Read The Track A Bit Better .esp In Claiming Races And Msw.
6. Turf Angle..if You See In The Horses Past Performances That It Closed In The Last Race At Kentucky Downs. Bet It. That Course Is Uphill And The
Horse Should Enjoy A Flat Run This Time..
7.wet Track. = Front Speed
8. Trainers To Follow..david Caroll, Victoria Oliver,phil Simms ,eric Reed,ian Wilkes..merrel Scherer
These Trainers Tend To Bring In Good Prices.
9. Post Positions. On The Main Track It 6f Under I Prefer Middle Post Positions 3-7 At Greater Dist I Tend To Like The Outside.
10. Works. Many Trainers Who Run Here Are Training On The Main Track. If A Horse Has No Work On The Keen Track I Would Pass On Him.
11.prices.. Dont Be Afraid To Bet Horses At Long Odds .in Msw, Claiming. If You Like It Bet It.most Of The On Track Money Is Drunk College Kids..and Fav
Can Be Way Overbet. Westly Ward Will Do One Of Two Things..be Ready Or Have Nothing..so W Him Early.

Thats All I Can Think Of Right Now I Hope This Helps Some Of You.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

Hooves Keeneland Primer. A Few Things To Look For.many On Here Will Not Need Any Of This As They Do Well
On The Poly. This Is An Fyi From My Exp On Playing Keeneland Hope It Helps Some Of The Novice Handicappers.

1. Poly Is Not As Big A Mystery As It May Seem. Ive Found That Horses That Run Well On Dirt Will Run Well On Poly If Not A Horse May Just Not Be 'ready'.
2. Keeneland Is A Locals Track And As Such You Can Find Owner/breeder Combos 'ky Bred' That Are Pointed For The Meet.
3.no Name Trainers. Many Of These Will Pop Up And Bite You As They Are Assistants To Big Name Guys That Are Going Out On There Own .
4. Just Like At Saratoga Getting On 'trends' Early Will Help Your Bank Roll.if A Trainer With Multiple Horses.ie Mcpeek Has Been Pointing
His Horses For This Meet For 6 Months And His Stock Is Tuned Up. Getting On Him Early And Often Is A Smart Move.
5. Jocks ,some Jocks Just Do Not Ride The Poly As Well As Others.look At Victor Lebron,lehandro Gonsolves, Jesus Castinon.these Guys Ride
On Poly More Than Most Of The Big Name Guys And As Such They Read The Track A Bit Better .esp In Claiming Races And Msw.
6. Turf Angle..if You See In The Horses Past Performances That It Closed In The Last Race At Kentucky Downs. Bet It. That Course Is Uphill And The
Horse Should Enjoy A Flat Run This Time..7.wet Track. = Front Speed
8. Trainers To Follow..david Caroll, Victoria Oliver,phil Simms ,eric Reed,ian Wilkes..merrel Scherer
These Trainers Tend To Bring In Good Prices.
9. Post Positions. On The Main Track It 6f Under I Prefer Middle Post Positions 3-7 At Greater Dist I Tend To Like The Outside.
10. Works. Many Trainers Who Run Here Are Training On The Main Track. If A Horse Has No Work On The Keen Track I Would Pass On Him.
11.prices.. Dont Be Afraid To Bet Horses At Long Odds .in Msw, Claiming. If You Like It Bet It.most Of The On Track Money Is Drunk College Kids..and Fav
Can Be Way Overbet. Westly Ward Will Do One Of Two Things..be Ready Or Have Nothing..so W Him Early.

Thats All I Can Think Of Right Now I Hope This Helps Some Of You.

That's my favorite.

Great stuff Hooves, thanks and good luck.

[casp0555]

Super Hooves! Thanks for the coaching! =

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

Hooves Keeneland Primer. A Few Things To Look For.many On Here Will Not Need Any Of This As They Do Well
On The Poly. This Is An Fyi From My Exp On Playing Keeneland Hope It Helps Some Of The Novice Handicappers.

1. Poly Is Not As Big A Mystery As It May Seem. Ive Found That Horses That Run Well On Dirt Will Run Well On Poly If Not A Horse May Just Not Be 'ready'.

I don't agree with this. In my experience, the only way to consistently make money at Keeneland is to bet against heavy favorites with good dirt form who have never tried synthetic.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

that was a general statement. of course you want to play vs favorites..im just saying that dirt form if a horse is fit does not need to be so complicated as acting like he has to be a turf bred horse.the supposed synth breeding is a myth .i believe people overthink the poly as bieng a turf surface.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

that was a general statement. of course you want to play vs favorites..im just saying that dirt form if a horse is fit does not need to be so complicated as acting like he has to be a turf bred horse.the supposed synth breeding is a myth .i believe people overthink the poly as bieng a turf surface.

I think banking on any form - dirt or turf - translating to poly is a losing strategy. It really has to be treated as a third surface and past synth form should be weighted most heavily. But favorites with good dirt form and no synthetic races are a particularly good bet-against at Keeneland. Other than that, it's a good list with a lot of useful info.

[Calzone Lord]

Betting dirt form on synthetic tracks is the surest way to lose over the long haul.

As Ateam said, it's a third surface. Even betting turf form is an almost equally bad idea.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Betting dirt form on synthetic tracks is the surest way to lose over the long haul.

As Ateam said, it's a third surface. Even betting turf form is an almost equally bad idea.

So then you autotoss first time synth and ignore all but synth lines?

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

fair enough..

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by jms62

So then you autotoss first time synth and ignore all but synth lines?

I try to anticipate and project with first time syn horses and obviously I put a lot of emphasis on synth lines.

Every year at Keeneland in the fall -- you'll see threads started on multiple boards about how well the PID horses are doing and people will seem surprised. In a lot of cases -- they are upsetting races where a lot of horses don't have proven synthetic form.

I've always done very well handicapping and betting synthetic tracks just by simply doing that. Doesn't matter if it's local, or if it's California, or if it's Keeneland or Turfway ... doesn't matter if it's the Breeders Cup on Pro-ride or $7,500 maiden claiming races.

If a horse doesn't have the established form over synthetic -- and I don't see him as a good projection for the surface -- I would never bet it no matter how much I like it from every other standpoint.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

just like turfway. arlington shippers.. prior synth form can be an advantage.but if i see a horse that ran at saratoga in a good race and time..im not going to toss him vs a pid or woodbine horse who has run on it but they are just average..

[geeker2]

great info Hooves...thanks for posting!

[dylbert]

If horse has run poorly at Keeneland previously, don't expect sudden improvement on return trip. If horse has run well, play 'em.

[docicu3]

Thats All I Can Think Of Right Now I Hope This Helps Some Of You.



Year after year Mathew has shown ridiculous winning plays at this meet using a number of the suggestions above.....

Even if your boxing $1 verticals or $.50 cent horizontals such as P3's or P4's , at some point this guy that has been affectionately referred to for years as the Ky Killer will push through and bust out for big $$'s proving you don't have to bet alot to win a ridiculous amount.

If your looking for a high percentage of winners this is not your guy but if your looking for the rainbow pot of gold, especially if he has the time to devote to handicapping a card at KE, you will be hard pressed to out perform this guy....

Byk is a phenomenal handicapper but even he, who I believe coined the Ky Killer his name, would agree that Hooves does a great job at this track year in and out...some talents can only be appreciated not quantified or understood.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

thanks doc.. david carroll just popped at 38-1..

[dpkovalesky]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

8. Trainers To Follow..david Caroll, Victoria Oliver,phil Simms ,eric Reed,ian Wilkes..merrel Scherer
These Trainers Tend To Bring In Good Prices.

Already paying off 38-1

[Stickhorse]

Thanks for the primer. It has certainly been a help.

I have dabbled a bit at KEE and the thing that strikes me is how dominant speed has been on the Poly. That seems especially true when there is a breeze that seems to give the horses on the engine an extra boost.