6/8 (BEL) 145th Belmont Stakes: Field at 14 as 'Tiz' passes

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Never said I'm against Dreaming of Julia. I said I wouldn't start her if I owned her or trained her. Given the competition and pace dynamics, the most logical thing to do is wait for the string of big summer races in New York and hit them all leading into the Breeders Cup.

Without cheating, I bet about 95% of racing fans couldn't name the 1st and 2nd place finisher of the last two Kentucky Oaks. It's not a race that is anymore prestigious than the next several she'd start in. Bigger crowd? Yes. More prestigious? No. Let all the other excellent fillies from a strong crop that all have the same running style rip each others heads off trying to win this race.

DoJ on top of Pure Fun, Seaneen Girl, and Princess of Sylmar and using all 4 in horizontal wagers.

Ok. Fair enough.
Last year was Believe You Can and Rosie running down that Pletcher/JV speed horse. I dont remember the horses name.
The year before was Plum Pretty beating St. Johns River. No cheating.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Yes it does. Horses are much less frequently raced than in the 1980's and before that:

Here are the 1981 Derby PP's: http://www.drf.com/row/pps/1981.pdf

The top fillies were far more likely to get tried in preps against males in the old days because horses raced a lot more frequently.

However ... the ENTIRE point of the list is that fillies were almost never entered against males when the system was based on Graded Earnings.

Since 1945, several thousand fillies could have entered and raced in the Kentucky Derby ... yet only 11 did.

So, why the need to make a point system designed to keep them out? Because Eight Belles broke down when she was pulling herself up on the gallop out after dusting 18 of the 19 males she faced?

1981 was also the year Lizza entered Wayward Lass, ostensibly knocking out Flying Nashua. Barrera then got an injunction allowing Flying Nashua to race, then Wayward Lass scratched. The theory was that since Nashua was about through in the breeding shed, the Flying Zee camp wanted "their" Nashua in the race.

[Kasept]

Instead of Peter Pan, Belmont Stakes-targeted Derby ex-pat Code West will apparently enter 8.5f 3yo N1X on Saturday's undercard. Atigun won same race last year..

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Danzig

why should a top horse be barred from entry?

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship? The path to the derby is clearly defined as is the path to the BCS. The races are Open and fillies are not barred. A Todd Pletcher horse that freaked at Gulfstream vs 5 other horses in what turned out to be a glorified workout and now eveyone is screaming that the system is broke. Funny I don't remember a single post expressing any outrage that Restricted Filly races were omitted prior to Dreaming of Julia's race. This is my last post on the subject as I need to spend my time handicapping these races good Luck to everyone and especially to those experts that deem anyones opinion but their own as "stupid".

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship? The path to the derby is clearly defined as is the path to the BCS. The races are Open and fillies are not barred. A Todd Pletcher horse that freaked at Gulfstream vs 5 other horses in what turned out to be a glorified workout and now eveyone is screaming that the system is broke. Funny I don't remember a single post expressing any outrage that Restricted Filly races were omitted prior to Dreaming of Julia's race. This is my last post on the subject as I need to spend my time handicapping these races good Luck to everyone and especially to those "experts" that deem anyones opinion but their own as "stupid".

I agree with you. Its actually pretty clear cut. The system was set as is, nothing was said until after her 114 beyer. Funny thing about her, for me, is that every other race in her career just makes her a contender. It would be different if Todd didn't have a track record with this stuff. Now Im fully aware a few of his horses have carried the Gulfstream form to Belmont, but Im still dubious with this filly on Friday.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship?

That might be the most idiotic analogy I've ever heard in my life.

A race horse is not a sports team...it's a single individual entity.

North Dakota is a TEAM of individual players. 11 are on the field at all times. Race horses are individuals. They don't race together as a team in units of eleven. Got that?

Jerry Rice was voted the #1 NFL player of all-time...he played at Mississippi Valley State...which is barred from the BCS. Walter Payton played at Jackson State and he was a top 5 player all-time.

The 1st pick in the NFL draft just came from the Central Michigan Chippewas.

Comparing football players to race horses is dopey enough ... but you want to compare entire football teams with a 52-man roster to race horses?

Tears, Jerry, tears.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

That might be the most idiotic analogy I've ever heard in my life.

A race horse is not a sports team...it's a single individual entity.

North Dakota is a TEAM of individual players. 11 are on the field at all times. Race horses are individuals. They don't race together as a team in units of eleven. Got that?

Jerry Rice was voted the #1 NFL player of all-time...he played at Mississippi Valley State...which is barred from the BCS. Walter Payton played at Jackson State and he was a top 5 player all-time.

The 1st pick in the NFL draft just came from the Central Michigan Chippewas.

Comparing football players to race horses is dopey enough ... but you want to compare entire football teams with a 52-man roster to race horses?

Tears, Jerry, tears.

Wow you didnt or you didnt want too.Please let me explain. The path to both the Derby and BCS are CLEARLY defined ahead of time. If you choose for whatever reason not to follow the path then you dont get in really very elementary Dougie.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jms62

Why should North Dakota State be barred from BCS championship? The path to the derby is clearly defined as is the path to the BCS. The races are Open and fillies are not barred. A Todd Pletcher horse that freaked at Gulfstream vs 5 other horses in what turned out to be a glorified workout and now eveyone is screaming that the system is broke. Funny I don't remember a single post expressing any outrage that Restricted Filly races were omitted prior to Dreaming of Julia's race. This is my last post on the subject as I need to spend my time handicapping these races good Luck to everyone and especially to those "experts" that deem anyones opinion but their own as "stupid".

one, i never said someone with a differing opinion was stupid, and two, it's been said for months now, ever since the points system was first trotted out, that it had flaws. omitting filly races is one of them, was always mentioned as an error of omission.
good luck 'capping.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Danzig

one, i never said someone with a differing opinion was stupid, and two, it's been said for months now, ever since the points system was first trotted out, that it had flaws. omitting filly races is one of them, was always mentioned as an error of omission.
good luck 'capping.

You too.

[lemoncrush]

Can't wait for the watch the post position draw online.

It's like watching a Cable Access TV production from 1988.

[Dunbar]

5/4: KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Black Onyx (Kelly Breen/Joe Bravo) 50-1
2. Oxbow (D. Wayne Lukas/Gary Stevens) 30-1
3. Revolutionary (Todd Pletcher/Calvin Borel) 10-1
4. Golden Soul (Dallas Stewart/Robby Albarado) 50-1
5. Normandy Invasion (Chad Brown/Javier Castellano) 12-1
6. Mylute (Tom Amoss/Rosie Napravnik) 15-1
7. Giant Finish (Tony Dutrow/Jose Espinoza) 50-1
8. Goldencents (Doug O’Neill/Kevin Krigger) 5-1
9. Overanalyze (Todd Pletcher/Rafael Bejarano) 15-1
10. Palace Malice (Todd Pletcher/Mike Smith) 20-1
11. Lines of Battle (Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore) 30-1
12. Itsmyluckyday (Eddie Plesa Jr./Elvis Trujillo) 15-1
13. Falling Sky (John Terranova/Luis Saez) 50-1
14. Verrazano (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez) 4-1
15. Charming Kitten (Todd Pletcher/Edgar Prado) 20-1
16. Orb (Shug McGaughey/Joel Rosario) 7-2*
17. Will Take Charge (D. Wayne Lukas/Jon Court) 20-1
18. Frac Daddy (Ken McPeek/V. Lebron) 50-1
19. Java’s War (Ken McPeek/Julian Leparoux) 15-1
20. Vyjack (Rudy Rodriguez/Garrett Gomez) 15-1
---------------------------------------------------------------
21. (AE) Fear the Kitten (Mike Maker/Alan Garcia) 50-1


--Dunbar

[Dahoss]

It's not an easy job, but how is Charming Kitten 20-1 on the ML and Oxbow is 30-1?

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's not an easy job, but how is Charming Kitten 20-1 on the ML and Oxbow is 30-1?

The Ramsey wagering factor ?

[herkhorse]

frac daddy at 50-1?

[alysheba4]

not a chance Normandy goes at 12-1. love this horse.

[TheSpyder]

I do too but I can't help thinking he comes second...or third.

Originally Posted by alysheba4

not a chance Normandy goes at 12-1. love this horse.

[alysheba4]

i hope not.....

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's not an easy job, but how is Charming Kitten 20-1 on the ML and Oxbow is 30-1?

I'm really trying to find something to like about Oxbow. Anything. At least we don't know that Charming Kitten sucks on dirt yet. I don't have a problem with it, though it may have been a bit less obvious to install them both at 25-1

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'm really trying to find something to like about Oxbow. Anything. At least we don't know that Charming Kitten sucks on dirt yet. I don't have a problem with it, though it may have been a bit less obvious to install them both at 25-1

no speed on either side of him - breaks well - heads out for the lead to the 5-6 path- sets easy pace and powers home. Dewayne soils his $4000 suit.

[tywizard]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I'm really trying to find something to like about Oxbow. Anything. At least we don't know that Charming Kitten sucks on dirt yet. I don't have a problem with it, though it may have been a bit less obvious to install them both at 25-1

1. I agree with your comment on Oxbow
2. More importantly, your Avatar reminds me that there is a Duck Dynasty marathon on...Need a break from looking at this stuff.