7/24 Saratoga (Day 5-Lake George; $245k C/O): Del Mar ($237k C/O)

[Kasept]

Closed out the opening 96 hours of Saratoga 150 with the kind of day that gives you a solid leg up for the meet. We all regularly discuss how one good idea on the card at these kinds of meets can propel success and $40.20 Joe Can Gallop was the lynchpin Monday in the turf sprint 4th. In addition to the generous win tote, the George Weaver 2nd time starter tripped the $1,519 P4 and $2,228 in P3 returns with the other mundane reachables. Upsets in the later stages of the afternoon derailed the P6 carryover try and a $245k two day pot adds excitement to the kickoff of Week 2 today. Del Mar has their own C/O, so thrillseekers can tie on this afternoon from 3:08pm ET (SAR 5th) to 8:40pm ET (DMR 8th)! Hope you did well Monday... Let's take runs at the sequences today.


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

An old fashioned, plating donnybrook. A little intimidated by fact that favorite Dighton bulleted on June 26th and wasn't seen by clockers again until July 20th. There's enough speed to give long looks at all styles including 15-1 DiPrima closer Mewannarose who will be coming late..

Most Likely: #8 Midnight Music 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Much Stronger 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #5 Mewannarose 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Dighton 5-2 6th


2nd: Broom Dance-R, 3yo-F, 9f (P4, P3, DD)

Sure feels like Profetiza leads them on a merry chase here..

Most Likely: #4 Profetiza 2-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Parc Monceau 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Flash Forward 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Montana Native 3-1 WON ($5.50)


3rd: CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Summer Sands 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Town Hall 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Nevada 9-2 WON ($17.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Bedouin Now 6-1 8th


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Interesting group of sophomore fillies that seem to be constantly knocking on the door. Mott's Callana (8-5) the missy to beat with Clement's Celtic Arch (4-1) and Chad Brown's Industrial Road (3-1) equally apparent. Samiam (10-1) going out 'first time Weaver' and Domino 2nd/layoff stretcher Forever Road (8-1) offer value..

Best Value: #7 Forever Road 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Industrial Policy 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Callana 8-5 7th
Super Add: #5 Samiam 10-1 WON ($10.80)


5th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$245k Double P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Work N Flirt 8-5 (A) 4th/5th
Next Best: #6 Inaflash 4-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #7 Lady Halite 10-1 (B) 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Rettalfa 8-1 (B) 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-4-5
3: 1-5
4: 3-4-5-6-7-8
5: 1-6-7-8

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: OC/C, 4+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Stakes-quality affair and a big challenge to P6 players on a budget..

Most Likely: #10 Mr. Commons 5-2 (A) 5th
Best Value: #1 Sleepless Knight 8-1 (B) 9th
Next Best: #5 Turallure 10-1 (C) 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Hoofit 10-1 (C) 3rd


7th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 My Cousin Zinny 4-1 (A) 5th
Best Value: #2 Bear Slayer 15-1 (B) 8th
Next Best: #8 Blue Ballerina 5-2 (C) 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Lara 6-1 (C) 3rd


8th: OC/N3L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Clarinda 5-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #1 Jan's Perfect Star 3-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Girl Code 4-1 (B) 3rd
Super Add: #2 Alexandra's Grace 12-1 (C) 2nd


9th: 18th Lake George (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Though there are some fillies with upside signed on, it's hard to argue with merits of Kitten's Dumplings here, particularly for small ticket P6 players as you get the most accomplished horse in the field as the 5-2 second choice. Plus, top pilot and superagent Ron Anderson sided with the Maker miss over the 2-1 Mott fave..

Most Likely: #6 Kitten's Dumplings 5-2 (A) WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #1 Watsdachances 4-1 (B) 2nd
Best Value: #5 Midnight Watch 5-1 (C) 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Tapicat 2-1 (C) 3rd


10th: MCLM/$35k, 3+, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF

#13 (AE) Harrier Hill certainly a factor if drawing in..

Best Value: #3 Show Some Lovin (A) 3rd
Next Best: #13 Harrier Hill (B) 11th
Exotics Use: #14 Alvear (B) 7th
Super Add: #7 Lasso (C) 5th


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 1-6-7-8
6: 1-10
7: 3
8: 1-3-4
9: 6
10: 3-13-14

4x2x1x3x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3
8: 1-2-3-4
9: 1-2-5-6
10: 3-13-14

2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48



DEL MAR


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$238k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Taelyn's Prince 2-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #9 Sunny's Kat 5-2 (B) 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Station House 3-1 (B) WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #5 Oso Smart 20-1 (C) 3rd


4th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #13 Shediak 4-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #1 Streets of Heaven 7-2 (B) 3rd
Best Value: #11 Iron Joe T 9-2 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Bev N Bud 15-1 (C) 2nd


5th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

This event comes close to making the sequence unplayable. There is next to nothing concrete about this group..

Most Likely: #7 Ryleigh Ruler 8-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #4 Wickedly Sassy 5-1 (B) 8th
Best Value: #14 SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Monstro Ness 4-1 (C) 6th


6th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Sweet Lulu 2-1 (A) WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #1 Ondine 5-2 (A) 3rd
Best Value: #8 Royal Tiger 8-1 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Bella Viagia 7-2 (C) 2nd


7th: Wickerr, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Best Value: #8 Wilkinson 5-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #2 Indy Point 6-1 (A) WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Chips All In 7-2 (B) 4th
Super Add: #3 Tigah 6-1 (C) 3rd


8th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 8.5f

$47k Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #11 Tuckers Point 2-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #1 Indycott 5-2 (A) WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Warren's Cliff S. 5-1 (B) 5th
Super Add: #10 Will He Amaze 6-1 (C) 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Rocabar 10-1 (C) 9th


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 2-8-9
4: 13
5: 4-7
6: 1-3-8
7: 2-8
8: 1-11

3x1x2x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 4-7-11-14
6: 1-3-8
7: 2-3-7-8
8: 1-11

4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

NOTE: SARATOGA 7TH & 10TH HAVE BEEN TAKEN OFF THE TURF

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Kasept

NOTE: SARATOGA 7TH & 10TH HAVE BEEN TAKEN OFF THE TURF

Will the 13 get in?

[cal828]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Will the 13 get in?

I think both the 13 and 14 get in because of the scratch of the 4 and the 9.

[ADJMK]

Hi Steve,

Do you know if Mr. Commons was scratched out of a recent start? The 4 weeks break between works if somewhat concerning. Good luck and keep it rolling today.

[tanner12oz]

Anyone see the twin spires players pool ticket yet? Always interested in how they put together 50k worth of p6 tickets

[LAP_520]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Anyone see the twin spires players pool ticket yet? Always interested in how they put together 50k worth of p6 tickets

Three of their tickets singled the #1 in Race 5...

and in Race 6 .... used four horses 1,2,5,and 10

Here is their Expensive ticket....

Saratoga - Race #5 - 07/24/2013
$2 P6

Race #5 - # 1,2,3,4,6,8
Race #6 - WT# 1,2,5,10
Race #7 - WT# 3,4,8,9,10
Race #8 - WT# 2,3,4,5
Race #9 - WT# 1,2,4,6
Race #10 - WT# 2,3,5,7,10,11,12,13,14
Ticket Cost = $34,560

[tanner12oz]

Can't be too many live at this point

[tanner12oz]

Players pool had six and a bunch of 5 of 6 that I never have any luck calculating...second winner was hard to come by...their winning ticket was 8900 bucks...jeez o man

[EPB]

Saratoga - Race #5 - 07/24/2013

$2 P6


Race #5 - # 1,4,6,8
Race #6 - WT# 3,4,6,9
Race #7 - WT# 3,4,8,9,10
Race #8 - WT# 2,3,4,5
Race #9 - WT# 4,6
Race #10 - WT# 3,5,7,10,11,12,13

Ticket Cost = $8960

[LAP_520]

7/24/2013

Saratoga Pick 6 pays

$2.00 Pick-6 ~ 4/6/9/5,6/6,8/5 (6 of 6) $60903.00
$2.00 Pick-6 ~ 4/6/9/5,6/6,8/5 (5 of 6) $388.50

[Rudeboyelvis]

Not saying it's wrong or that anything untoward is going on, but the payoff seems sickly light for that sequence.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Not saying it's wrong or that anything untoward is going on, but the payoff seems sickly light for that sequence.

20% over the parlay is sickly light? Really?

It could have been higher, but it's hardly as though any of the winners were near impossible. It was tough to get them all on one ticket without spending a LOT of money, but the payoff was more than fair.