10/3: Keeneland (Opening Day)

[Kasept]

Fell tortuously short on C/O try at BEL Thursday as Vona photo loss in 7th doomed conso after 2nd/3rd efforts from Honor the Kitten and Charlie's Picnic in the 5th. Caught overlaid Schettino dropdown Bernstein Flambe ($32) to start the afternoon which did guarantee the day's proceeds. Bakken's return in the 8th went well (94 Beyer) and the Chad Brown charge should be ready for a major stakes try next. Hope everyone did well.

Keeneland back on the betting menu today and some wet weather adds to the intrigue already in the offing via Day 1 of the new 'high tech' dirt main. Two premium juvenile MSW's and ALW's, the G3 Phoenix sprint and G1 Alcibiades make the opener attractive despite the uncertainty of the fresh surface. Expecting surface to play fast based on early notations from trainers and track management..


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Nice looking group features 7 FTS anchored by Brereton Jones' Proud Spell son Etruscan (Bernardini). Jones sold Proud Spell's modest first drop ($175k Indian Spell to Besilu) and the second hasn't made the races, so the jury is out as to what kind of broodmare she's going to be. Colt certainly working well for Larry Jones and sure seems likely that this set of connections will be prepared for today's high profile setting..

Most Likely: #10 Joe Franklin 5-2: Breen 2nd timer the one to catch.. WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #2 Etruscan 4-1: See above; Bullet gate works add to appeal.. 5th
Best Value: #5 Pro Daddy 12-1: Plus price on B. Lynch half to speedy SW Graeme Six.. 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Danzig Moon 5-1: Oxley Malibu Moon blasting away in a.m. cross-state.. 4th


6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Nice enough group with classy turnback Bourbon Courage headlining, but a bit of a curiousity with no certain pacesetter. Rugged from the rail? Paco Lopez always hustles.. Is that the plan with Vegas No Show? Quirky start to the P5..

Most Likely: #2 Bourbon Courage 7-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #5 Politicallycorrect 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Officer Alex 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Vegas No Show 7-2 4th


7th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

2nd division of maidens features 2nd horses from no less than 6 of the outfits that send runners in the 5th (Romans, Lynch, Casse, McPeek, Jones, Stewart)!

Most Likely: #8 Exodus 5-1: $600k Porter buy a half to Cross Traffic.. 3rd
Best Value: #10 Ambidextrous Alex 30-1: Scott sharp 2nd/out & adds Lasix.. WON ($22.40)
Next Best: #6 Cloverdale Nine 9-2: Ward FTS a half to zippy Whywhywhy.. 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Tapit Wicked 4-1: Lost to Wilkes' 30-1 shot. Feels iffy.. 2nd


8th: 162nd Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Authentic speed here and those that can attend without needing front seem preferable. Love regional stalwarts Rainbow Heir (NJ) and Work All Week (IL), but have doubts v. bigger stage open players...

Best Value: #1 C. Zee 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Bern Identity 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Work All Week 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #3 Lemon Drop Dream 8-1 4th


9th: 63rd Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Deep, seemingly talented field dotted with stretchouts and surface switchers inviting some chaos..

Most Likely: #5 Taylor S 8-1 10th
Best Value: #9 Top Decile 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Innovative Idea 10-1 11th
Exotics Use: #1 Fashion Alert 4-1 6th
Super Add: #13 Gap Year 8-1 7th


10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-OFF THE TURF (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Miracle Run 4-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Kimberly Jean 5-1 -
Best Value: #1 Circus Girl 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Treaty Oak 7-2 -
Super Add: #6 SCR


P5 Grid:

6: 2 (A), 5 (B), 3-4 (C)
7: 8 (A), 4-6-10 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
8: 1 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
9: 5-9 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-11-13 (C)
10: 13 (A), 12 (B), 1-6-7 (C)


P4 Grid:

7: 8 (A), 4-6-10 (B), 1-3-5 (C)
8: 1 (A), 2-8 (B), 3-4-5 (C)
9: 5-9 (A), 1-7 (B), 6-11-13 (C)
10: 13 (A), 1-12 (B), 6-7 (C)


Good luck!
Steve