Some Gulfstream thoughts (R1-5)

[ateamstupid]

1st

1 purincat
gonna be at least partially victimized if there's a slow pace but is a legitimately nice turf horse who ran sneaky huge after being dragged out of the race last time, closing 5 1/4 lengths into final 5/16 in :29.35 (:28.45 internal split). unfortunately same rider returns but have to think he won't have him so far out of it this time.

2 one more cat
fits at the level, coming off good effort vs better

3 tinitus
a cut below the top contenders, could find his way into number

4 knack
too slow

5 overton square
bet-against (won't be 3-1 though). got away with very soft pace against restricted claimers with favorite total no-show at 13:10.

6 concert stage
was terrible last time, but think he benefits from stretching back out to 8.5f. like that he picks up luis saez and he is a 9-time winner on grass.

7 live in joy
didn't do much running last out but also got stuck in between and behind horses for much of his trip. connections reached out to velazquez and he doesn't figure to be boxed in today (8,10 will go, 9 will drop out of it, leaving him to stalk outside of horses).

8 master achievement
would be competitive on his best form but his 3 races since the summer layoff have been dreadful. in theory he should make things tougher on overton square and he's got the better speed. he feels like a 'c'.

9 gamblin fever
also a cut below the top contenders

10 colorado daydream
too slow but potential pace factor.

i have to bet #1 purincat at anything close to 8-1. 2,6,7 look to be the other serious win contenders.

2nd
1 rhiana's candy
dam was a nice horse, mostly going longer so it's interesting connections sought out 7f spot for debut. a few sharp-looking breezes including a six-furlong spin. rail is a tough draw but in paco i trust.

2 improv
g-hump homebred has the right to be very nice from unbridled's song g2-winning route dam. arnold tough to take first-out, but it's notable that leparoux takes the mount. too well-bred to ignore.

3 endless chat
wow, now a juddmonte homebred too. debuts sans lasix for a patient barn, but castellano takes the call and 7f and up is generally better for mott firsters than short sprints.

4 sweetgrass
oh, and here's one from another lousy debut trainer, ian wilkes, showing up with a best-of-42 gate work tuesday at palm meadows. yikes.

5 celestine
was an ok 4th when bet to favoritism in her debut, but was inferior to distinta, who was best. now faces a bunch of potentially live firsters. i'll pass.

6 villa savoye
godolphin pokes their head in with a medaglia d'oro filly from a blue-hen dam, but albertrani REALLY doesn't win with firsters and can't see contreras being up as a good sign.

7 solar solstice
cost 12x her sire's stud fee as a yearling, goes out for 25% barn, but may be better suited for grass. this is a very tough debut spot but wouldn't discount her completely, especially if she takes money.

8 irene adler
somehow uncoupled from villa savoye? unlike the other godolphin/albertrani, she already has her tightener - problem is, it was 5 months ago and she didn't do any particular running. gets lasix, but another suspect rider choice and will probably need a race.

9 distinta
already ran a winning race in her last effort, breaking slowly and then circling 4-wide on the turn only to be just denied late. interesting that castellano ends up on the mott, but she's a top contender.

10 fifty foot woman
$400k yearling attracts velazquez for zito, who usually shines this time of year, but this is another one who looks more turf-meant. the board will tell the tale.

something tells me this will be a key maiden race in the 3yo filly division. #9 distinta is the only one of the three who've run that i want. 1,2,3,4 all look like dangerous firsters, but i could also be talked into using the 7 or 10 if they were to take signifcant money.

3rd
another ridiculous gulfstream morning line as there's no way in hell #5 fastidia's sun is going to be 4-1 off a 68 beyer in statebred msw company that towers over this field. the question is if you buy that figure, as the top 3 finishers were all firsters who haven't run since. i'm inclined to believe it, and even if it's a tad high, that's still a solid number against a way tougher field after breaking last. #7 mr. romance is going to take money after setting the pace against much tougher last out, now cuts back to 6f but holy cow has he quit twice with soft trips. #2 malekith is mildly interesting on the cutback at a big price. i prefer others to the horses out of the get creative race on 12/11. love the rider switches on both #9 gram and #10 abiceb brothers along with a big trainer change for the latter.

a: 5
b: 2,9,10
c: 1,4

4th
#1 fashion alert will be relieved to get away from take charge brandi and just looks to be in another class from these fillies. yes, she'll be under the gun from speed to her outside and yes, she hasn't been seen in 3 months, but pletcher won the same race with sweet whiskey coming off a layoff last year and she's probably the speed of the speed. i also doubt she'll be 7-5, smells like an odds-on favorite. the ones who figure to come calling if the favorite gets involved in a total meltdown are #3 r sassy lass for hot ziadie off better-than-figure-suggests win in sandpiper and #6 temper mint patty.

a: 1
b: none
c: 3,6

5th
1 river of dreams
was compromised by bias and/or slow pace in first two starts, then ran into leave the light on and moved forward again to be 5th at 32-1 last out. gyarmati is sneaky and he draws well. interesting at a price.

2 lone trader
the bromans and mike hushion? say no more

3 cliffs of dover
took some money first out, then was caught wide on wet turf.

4 tiz town
forced the pace going a furlong further at churchill first off a 5-month layoff and did well to hold 3rd, 8 1/2 in front of 4th.

5 white bay
stepped forward first-time lasix at laurel, picks up javier.

6 innocuous
contessa shelled out $75k for this gelding, returns with lasix and john velazquez with a very nice work pattern.

7 persuasive
ralph nicks and paco always dangerous and he's shown some zip in the a.m., but has much more of a dirt-leaning pedigree.

8 shaman ghost
has yet to threaten in two starts, but has shown interest late and like the distance/beyer progression for a very sharp trainer. also owned by stronach.

9 parker ridge
looks like a sprinter and faces a much tougher field than last out. paco goes elsewhere.

10 silver lucky q
too slow

11 bravo charlie
stepped forward and showed speed in a major way 2nd out, setting the pace going two turns and coming back for 2nd at 63-1. bred both sides for grass.

12 more front
has to step up off debut effort against weaker, but it's clement, adding lasix with a 2nd time turfer.

13 umberto
a cut below

a: 4,11
b: 1,2,3,5,6,8,12