7/25: Saratoga ~ Day 4 ($333k C/O; Lucky Coin)

[Kasept]

Challenging opening days of Spa session continued Sunday with $28, $26, $40 and $60 horses dotting the landscape. The last 2 numbers were piloted by exploding Ricardo Santana Jr., bracketing Songbird's efficient dispatching of the CCA Oaks and triggered a 2-day P6 carryover of $333,445 on an otherwise mundane Monday.

Turf events are always going to be deep and contentious, but notably over the first 72 hours of racing in 16 main track events, only 2 horses have managed to go wire to wire: Bowie, desperate for the line at 5.5f Saturday, and 3-10 Songbird. As suggested Saturday here and with Rich Migliore on Loose on the Lead Sunday, the advantage for outside stalker-closers on the dirt may continue until the area gets some significant rain. Meanwhile, dig in the heels and keep shopping for prices. The scores are out there!


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Girl Talk 8-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #2 Verve's Tale 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Reknown 8-1 6th


2nd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Grey Glory 2-1 WON ($5.10)
Best Value: #6 Boomerang Toy 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Saratoga Sight Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 New York's Zip 8-1 3rd


3rd: CLM, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Patton Proud 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Pinstripe 8-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #4 Zoo Yorker 5-2 4th


4th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$333,445 DBL P6 C/O starts here..

Watch board for clues in this exceedingly murky NY-bred quagmire that starts $1,000,000+ sequence in difficult fashion..

Best Value: #2 With Wings 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Lady Joan 5-2 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #5 Jacqueline D 8-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Stichy G 8-1 5th


5th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Half this field (3-5-6-7-8-12) is making no more than 3rd career start while other half (1-2-4-9-10-11) is 0/64. Danger here is that among the 0/64 set you have some fillies (like Flying K C) that will see the roulette ball fall into their slot at some point..

Most Likely: #7 Thin Dress 5-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Brooklyn Gal 20-1 12th
Next Best: #5 Tattletale Grey 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Laurel Heights 9-5 8th


P5 Grid:

1: 1-2
2: 6-8
3: 2-3
4: 2-4-5-6-9
5: 5-6-7

Simple (A+B): 2x2x2x5x3 = 120 x .50 = $60


P4 Grid:

2: 6-8 (A), 5 (B), 2-3-7 (C)
3: 2-3 (A), - (B), 1-4-5-6 (C)
4: 2-6 (A), 4-5-9 (B), 7-8-10 (C)
5: 6-7 (A), 5-12 (B), 2-8-9-10 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60
All A's: 2x2x2x2 = $16 ($8 for .50)

$0.50 Pick 4 (8-3-6-8) Paid $490.25 (A-A-A-C)


6th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Respect but don't fear Startwithsilver (3-1) who can certainly can win. There are several here who are just as eligible at more attractive pricing..

Best Value: #6 Dreamboat Annie 12-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Animal Appeal 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #4 She's All Ready 5-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Little Bear Cat 8-1 3rd


7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Mills 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Tale of Life 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Watershed 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Super Add: #5 Doyouknowsomething 6-1 3rd


8th: Lucky Coin, 4+, 5.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #9 Long On Value 6-1 WON ($8.80)
Next Best: #12 Undrafted 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Beantown Saint 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Spring to the Sky 4-1 4th


9th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f

Best Value: #9 Two Putt 8-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Here and There 9-2 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Bermuda Triangle 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Porch Pounder 8-1 11th


P6 Grid:

4: 2-6 (A), 4-5 (B), 7-8-9-10 (C)
5: 6-7 (A), 5 (B), 2-10-12 (C)
6: 6-8 (A), 4 (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 3 (A), - (B), 2-4 (C)
8: 9-12 (A), - (B), 4-7 (C)
9: 9 (A), 8 (B), 2-3-4-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x1x2x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
All A's: 2x2x2x1x2x1 = 16 x $2 = $32


P4 Grid:

6: 4-6-8 (A), - (B), 3-5 (C)
7: 2-3-4 (A), - (B), 1-5-6-7 (C)
8: 9-12 (A), 4-7 (B), 1-5-10 (C)
9: 8-9 (A), 2-6 (B), 3-4 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x3x2x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


Good luck!
Steve